NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[oldtimer]

Zeldin is winning Staten Island by a margin of 34% with 87% in.
Cuomo won it by 2.

In Queens, Zeldin is at 36% with 37% in, Molinaro got 18%.
In the Bronx, Zeldin is over performing Molinaro by 15%, he is already getting 15k more votes than Molinaro with 55% in.
In Brooklyn Zeldin is overperfoming Molinaro by 13%
In Manhattan Zeldin is overperforming Molinaro by 9%.

New York City doesn't look at this moment for Hochul.

But Hochul is beating Cuomo by 2 in Buffalo with 69% in, and by 1 in Putnam with 51% in.

It's upstate New York vs New York City once again.

[oldtimer]

So Zeldin could win this?

If he holds in upstate New York, he could.

Look at Queens, Cuomo won it by a 61% margin, Hochul is only 26% ahead with 70% in.

[oldtimer]

This is beyond embarrassing, especially with Democrats doing much better nationally than expected. Anyway, a win is a win and nobody can take the title from first elected woman governor from Kathy anymore!

Republicans have now 3 seats within N.Y.C borders, same as in 1980 and 1984.

Now Republicans have a deep bench of 12 Congressmen from all of New York's regions to run for Higher Office.

Democrats are better off "retiring" Hochul.
She cost them the House.

[oldtimer]

Would James have done better if nominated? Maybe Hochul was just too uninspiring after all.

I think what ought to have happened to Whitmer happened to Hochul instead.
Both come off as fairly mercurial and wooden and have identical policies.
 
Call it misogyny, but Zeldin had contrast by been a man and having campaign experience.
Dixon was just another mercurial and wooden candidate that was picked off the street at  random.

[oldtimer]

Is this battle somehow.... helping Hochul? LMAO

Siena has her approval at 56/36, which I think is the highest she's ever gotten in their poll

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SNY0123-Crosstabs-SCRI.pdf

People often like politicians having a fighter mentality; they don't always care that much what specifically they're fighting for. Especially when it's something not having an immediate negative impact like a court nominee.

I would be very carefull:

Look at favourables.

Biden 49/47
Hotchul 48/42
Democrats 50/43

Federal, State, and Local Democrats all have the same thin ice numbers in New York.

The bad Midterm environment for New York Democrats continues, they have to be carefull or the thin ice might break and they'll drown.

[oldtimer]

Lol not even close.

https://twitter.com/SamMellins/status/1625950859640115218?s=20

Why on God's green Earth did she push for this so hard and ruin so much of her image and political capital? Did she really think LaSalle had a chance?

Like her predecessor, Hochul is operating under the notion that the proper way to govern as a Democrat is to spit on the party's left flank while appealing to right-wingers. This may have worked well during the Clinton era but is now largely obsolete (and I believe this is a major reason why Democrats underperformed in NY in 2021-22).

This is different.

You know Cuomo wouldn't have gotten in this mess.

[oldtimer]

Lol not even close.

https://twitter.com/SamMellins/status/1625950859640115218?s=20

Why on God's green Earth did she push for this so hard and ruin so much of her image and political capital? Did she really think LaSalle had a chance?

Like her predecessor, Hochul is operating under the notion that the proper way to govern as a Democrat is to spit on the party's left flank while appealing to right-wingers. This may have worked well during the Clinton era but is now largely obsolete (and I believe this is a major reason why Democrats underperformed in NY in 2021-22).

This is different.

You know Cuomo wouldn't have gotten in this mess.

Cuomo is the reason the maps were struck down. He he picked better judges, Democrats might have done even better in the State Senate and maybe even kept the House.

It's different, in that Cuomo would have known to either not fight a war in public over this or to get him confirmed without a fuss.

Can you imagive Cuomo threatening to sue his own party over LaSalle ?
Or Cuomo failing to get his way in private to confirm him ?

[oldtimer]

Lol not even close.

https://twitter.com/SamMellins/status/1625950859640115218?s=20

Why on God's green Earth did she push for this so hard and ruin so much of her image and political capital? Did she really think LaSalle had a chance?

Like her predecessor, Hochul is operating under the notion that the proper way to govern as a Democrat is to spit on the party's left flank while appealing to right-wingers. This may have worked well during the Clinton era but is now largely obsolete (and I believe this is a major reason why Democrats underperformed in NY in 2021-22).

This is different.

You know Cuomo wouldn't have gotten in this mess.

Cuomo is the reason the maps were struck down. He he picked better judges, Democrats might have done even better in the State Senate and maybe even kept the House.

It's different, in that Cuomo would have known to either not fight a war in public over this or to get him confirmed without a fuss.

Can you imagive Cuomo threatening to sue his own party over LaSalle ?
Or Cuomo failing to get his way in private to confirm him ?

Yes, I can imagine both those things happening very easily.  Cuomo wasn’t some sort of political genius.

Can you remember a fuss this big over any in this very long list of Cuomo's judicial appointments ?
https://ballotpedia.org/Judges_appointed_by_Andrew_Cuomo

[oldtimer]

Who the hell is this LaSalle guy and why does he not back out? Why Hochul seem damned d determined to put him on the court? This whole mess defies logic and reason. If this was a federal appointment he likely would’ve been dropped months ago or withdraw his own name. 

Democrats are in trouble in New York and Hochul is busy digging deeper.

I can guess that Democrats are probably wishing that Hochul had lost.