Which map is more likely by 2024?

[Mehmentum]

In order to remain competitive, the GOP needs to do better with Hispanics, which would lead to a lot of the Democratic trending western states to flip back.

At the same time, I thing that the Democratic trend in the coastal south (Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia) will continue.

In this way I like maps 2 and 3 better (which are effectively the same, really).  However, I don't think the Democrats will collapse in the Midwest.  The Republicans will be competitive there with the right candidate or the right environment, but I don't see the case for a Republican trend there.  

The map gives Democrats an edge in a 50/50 election like today, however re-allocation of EVs will likely boost the Republicans a bit.

[Mehmentum]

In order to remain competitive, the GOP needs to do better with Hispanics, which would lead to a lot of the Democratic trending western states to flip back.

At the same time, I thing that the Democratic trend in the coastal south (Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia) will continue.

In this way I like maps 2 and 3 better (which are effectively the same, really).  However, I don't think the Democrats will collapse in the Midwest.  The Republicans will be competitive there with the right candidate or the right environment, but I don't see the case for a Republican trend there.  

The map gives Democrats an edge in a 50/50 election like today, however re-allocation of EVs will likely boost the Republicans a bit.

If the Republicans do well reaching out to Hispanics, they will at least do substantially better amongst blacks. Maybe they will go from 12:1 and 2:1 respectively to 3:1 and 5:4 respectively?

Didn't George Bush do well with Hispanics in 2004 and no better with Blacks than normal?

[Mehmentum]

^
Nationwide, George Bush got 11% of the Black vote in 2004, despite getting 44% of the Hispanic vote. 

Regardless, I don't think its fair to assume that just because the GOP does better with Hispanics, it'll do better with African Americans just because they're both minorities.  They're two different demographic groups with different religious compositions, culture, and political goals. 

[Mehmentum]

We don't know if any of those maps will be accurate. For all we know a map with the Democrats sweeping the South and one with the Republicans sweeping the Northeast and West Coast could be accurate by 2024.

Of course, but its fun to speculate.