The emerging Democratic majority in Mississippi

[windjammer]

Indeed,
I was debating with Adam about why democrats should invest in MS instead of Texas. Basically, Mitt Romney carried the 65+ 78-22. Of course, old people tend to vote more for the republicans, BUT NOT BY THIS MARGIN. If we substract the 65+ voters, Obama would have only lost MS by 5 point.
The reason is obviously because of segregation. MS is the state where white are the most republican. Obama only carried 10% of the white vote for example.

But this is evolving slowly. The fact that Obama improved his score in MS was obviously because of a higher black turnout, but not only. Whites are slowly voting more and more for  the democrats. Don't forget MS has the highest black population. If MS whites voted at the same margin that GA whites. This would be already a democratic state. And whites are voting more and more for the democrats because people who knew, who studied during segregation are simply dying.

Why I do believe MS is a safer bet for a democrat takeover than TX or GA for example?
       - MS is becoming more and more democrat by itself, ie not because of immigration, but because the black population is growing and the whites are voting more and more for the democrats.
       - MS becoming more and more democrat isn't the result of a growth among the hispanic population. And the hispanic population politically = DANGER for 2 reasons: the first is that hispanic turnout is quite low, the second is that they're going to vote more for the republicans. That's not going to happen with the black population.


I know I'm a bit optimistic (I expect MS to be a battleground state in 2024) and Griffin is more *realistic*, but we do agree on one thing, MS is going to become a democratic state. I personally would prefer that the democratic party starts to invest in MS rather than pouring millions of dollars into a state like Texas that isn't going to become democrat.

[windjammer]

IndyRep: of course higher black turnout played a big role, Griffin had the numbers that show that Obama improved his score among the white population.
           I do disagree with you. When Alabama and some other states became totally republican, there was a short period of competitive elections between republicans and democrats.


DC: 20% of the white young voted for Obama. Much more than the 65+ (likely 2%) and the white vote overall (10%).

[windjammer]

BLUE MISSISSIPPI IS BECOMING RED MISSISSIPPI

[windjammer]

My prediction for the MS 2024 election:
Whites: 56% (according to the census: they lost 2.5 points between 2000 and 2010, so a drop of 3 points seems realistic) 16% (yes 20% seems to be a bit optimistic, but who knows?)

Blacks: 38% (they get 0.8 point every 10 years) 90%

Others: 6% (A bit more optimistic than Griffin on that): 60%

So, score of the democratic candidate: 46.76
The other candidates except the democrat and the republican should get 1%

So final result: 52.24-46.76 for the republican

Do I expect MS to be a blue state in 2024? No
Do I expect MS to be relatively competitive? Yes

With the blue dogish northern Mississippi (yes blue dogs are still alive locally in Northern Mississippi), in 2024 with an open senate seat, they should be able to compete with a strong candidate like Jim Hood, or more likely Brandon Presley.