FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[Heebie Jeebie]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

I understand the pessimism.  I really do.  But I think there are some very important reasons to be optimistic.  2022 won't be like 2018 or 2020 for a number of very important reasons.  In retrospect, I think we can see that Democrats' 2018 candidates were not good nominees.  Nelson was older than Methuselah and it showed.  Gillum would have been a great candidate for a state like Virginia, but was self-sabotaging in Florida.  That "the racists think he's racist" line was disastrous--you can't up the salience of race as a campaign issue in a state like Florida and expect to win, especially if you're a black man!  Yes, he was the gubernatorial candidate, but I believe he dragged Democrats down a couple of points across the board.  Fortunately, Murphy isn't likely to make the same mistake.  District 7 could be a tough district for Democrats, but Murphy obviously knows how to win contested elections.  Also, unlike 2020, Trump won't be on the ticket.  Trump, as unpopular as he was nationally, could still drive Republican base turnout to ridiculous levels--an ability I don't see Rubio having.  What's more, the economy is going to be banging on election day, and Rubio will have a record of voting against the economic measures that made that prosperity possible. 

All in all, Rubio will be vulnerable, Murphy is a good candidate, and the mid-term environment won't be as bad for Democrats as many people assume.  Stephanie Murphy can and will win.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

I understand the pessimism.  I really do. But I think there are some very important reasons to be optimistic.(Yeah, for the GOP) 2022 won't be like 2018 (Is that supposed to be a good thing for democrats ?) or 2020 for a number of very important reasons.  In retrospect, I think we can see that Democrats' 2018 candidates were not good nominees.  Nelson was older than Methuselah and it showed.  Gillum would have been a great candidate for a state like Virginia, but was self-sabotaging in Florida.  That "the racists think he's racist" line was disastrous--you can't up the salience of race as a campaign issue in a state like Florida and expect to win, especially if you're a black man!  Yes, he was the gubernatorial candidate, but I believe he dragged Democrats down a couple of points across the board.(It's probably why he overperformed congressional democrats + two other statewide democratic candidates)  Fortunately, Murphy isn't likely to make the same mistake. District 7 could be a tough district for Democrats, but Murphy obviously knows how to win contested elections (This is a district that Biden won by double digits and which voted for Gillum and Nelson by large margins, so winning this district is not very impressive, Pat Murphy's record was much more impressive as FL-18 leans much more to the right and actually voted for Romney the year when Murphy won his first election).  Also, unlike 2020, Trump won't be on the ticket.  Trump, as unpopular as he was nationally, could still drive Republican base turnout to ridiculous levels--an ability I don't see Rubio having. (So you expect that democrats are not going to suffer turnout drop off among their lower propensity voters ?) What's more, the economy is going to be banging on election day, and Rubio will have a record of voting against the economic measures that made that prosperity possible (Explain that to all the strong GOP incumbents who lost in 2018 despite the good economy). 

All in all, Rubio will be vulnerable, Murphy is a good candidate, and the mid-term environment won't be as bad for Democrats as many people assume.  Stephanie Murphy can and will win.

I will never understand why some people are so hackish/delusionnal.

I'm not being "hackish."  I'm just trying to offer an alternative read of the situation, one that I think has just as much merit as the counter-position.  I don't think anybody is saying it's a slam dunk, but what is delusional is insisting that Democrats have no chance in Florida a year and a half from now.