FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[Sir Mohamed]

2016, please fix that link. It blows the page up. Thanks.

[Sir Mohamed]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

[Sir Mohamed]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

It's not safe R, Biden Approvals aren't 40 percent, it's 53 percent, did you see the S Pete's poll that showed DeSantis tied before the Gaetz story

Current Biden approval is meaningless in a senate election 18 months out. Come on. DeSantis is popular and nobody will care about Gaetz by election day.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely R -> Likely R

[Sir Mohamed]

Didn't expect such a high profile Dem challenging Rubio.

With some caution: Likely R -> Lean R. But closer to Likly than Tilt.

[Sir Mohamed]

What a waste. I really liked Demmings.

This...she should have waited to oust Scott in a presidential year, Scott is more vulnerable than Rubio.

Rubio will win by 5-9 points, it is Lean R for now....could be interesting

I'm not fully convinced Scott is a much easier target, given his electoral history. There's a good chance Voldemort succeeds again, even if Biden or Harris win the presidential election nationwide.

[Sir Mohamed]

Rubio will win by 12+, if not 15+

That's too pessimistic, I'd argue. I rated the race Likely R before Demings running and think it's more Lean R for now. He'll win in all likelyhood, but Demings is a good candidate. She can make it competitive if she runs a good campaign and learns from the mistakes Dems did in recent FL races.

Early prediction would be Rubio +5, which could get even closer.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good video, though I would focused less on the orange buffoon and more address economic issues. Demings for sure is an A-tier candidate and our best shot to bring down Rubio, who's a spineless coward. Her law enforcement background is definitely helpful and makes "Defund the police" fearmongering attacks fall flat.

Anyway, Lean R for now. It's a Dem-midterm and FL is a slightly red leaning state. These are severe obstacles to overcome in a closely divided state. However, if Demings loses by more than 4 pts without major campaign errors, it tells us that candidate quality in FL really doesn't matter much, if anything. It's not a must win pickup, but it would be bittersweet to retire Rubio and likely protect or expand our senate majority.

[Sir Mohamed]

Black voters are more optimistic among people who aren’t career politicians. Obama and Gillum were freshmen political figures and weren’t career politicians, that is unlike Demings. That’s why Hillary and Biden didn’t create such enthusiasm.

Obama had been in elected office for a decade before running for President. Gillum had been an elected official in Tallahassee for even longer. Demings ran for office in the first time in 2012 and recorded her first win in 2016 — by any measure, she is less of a "career politician" than either Obama or Gillum.

Complete agreement here. Also, unfortunately the term "career politician" often is associated with negative stereotypes when actually a certain amount of experience in elected or appointed office is a positive attribute. Politics is one of the few professions this has become a liability. That's ain't the case elsewhere; nobody would want treatment from a doctor with no experience, nobody would take flight with a pilot that has never landed a plane.

[Sir Mohamed]

I am rooting for Val but I would not put one nickel in this race

But Rs are down 9 in generic ballot and have insurrection behind them? Why doesn't OC believe in blue waves? 😝🌊🌊🌊

[Sir Mohamed]

FL polling has been flawed for a while. And even if a poll shows him slightly ahead in the race 4 prez, it means nothing that early. Classic OC overreaction to one poll.

Both FL-Sen and Gov are Likely R.

[Sir Mohamed]

In retrospect Democrats choose the wrong Candidate in Val Demings.

They pushed out Moderate Stephanie Murphy for Val Demings because Demings was apparently a better Fundraiser. How DUMB can you be at the Democratic Party Establishment! Insane.

Demings thought she can buy herself a Senate Seat with all the money she raised. Nope Val. You havr lost.

In this enviornment, no candidate would win here. Whether Murphy does 1-2 pts. better or not - which is even up for debate - doesn't really matter. A loss is a loss.

I think this race would even be Tilt/Lean R in a 2nd Trump midterm now.