Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[ChrisFromNJ]

Obama "refining" his Iraq Policy doesnt seem to be having an affect [either way] on his numbers...with the media pounding away at it im kinda surprised.

The media is doing everything they can to get John McCain elected... and Obama still leads by 5+ points?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Obama is really running away with this race!

Feel like a clown now?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Weekend bounce is back.

Sigh.

Umm... no.

There is not a weekend sample in this tracking poll.

[ChrisFromNJ]

The latest one-day sample is apparently Obama +15. That is where the bump is coming from.

[ChrisFromNJ]

The latest one-day sample is apparently Obama +15. That is where the bump is coming from.

[lololololol]

15-point bump

[/lololololol]

When did I ever say that?

[ChrisFromNJ]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

You wish.  Don't forget that Reagan was the underdog before the debates.  I don't know how the debates will go, but the election is by far over.

Not every election is like 1980, as much as the Republicans would like to hope so.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Where's the Palin bounce?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Obama/Biden: 49 (NC)
McCain/Palin: 42 (-1)

Still no bump from the GOP convention.

[ChrisFromNJ]

The GOP is already completely behind McCain.... and most independents are smart enough to see through Palin's garbage. 

94% of conservatives are behind McCain, according to Gallup. And he is still behind by 7%.

[ChrisFromNJ]

The bounce is not enough for my liking.

It will go away soon after the convention.

It must be very worrying to the McCain campaign that despite all the hoopla and excitement regarding Sarah Palin and how she might as well get her curtains measured in the White House, that McCain is very likely to see a lead that is beyond the margin of error, or even a lead at all.

This is the high point of the presidential cycle for the GOP this election cycle.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I wish we held our convention after theirs. Fu ck tradition.

I doubt this accounts for any real difference. So McCain gets a lead for a week or two. Big whoop.

Two weeks is where you start getting problems.

If McCain is ahead or with end 2% in two week, you can count Sen. Obama out. Sen. McCain well do very well in the debates and Sen. Obama will not.

Apparently you have never watched a Senator Obama debate. Especially his more recent ones. He was terrific in the MSNBC Ohio debate.

[ChrisFromNJ]

When does this tracking poll usually come out? There is really no specific time I have noticed, but they usually do come out after noon.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Anybody know what Gallup's party weighting numbers are at this point?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Wednesday -  September 16, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-2)

[ChrisFromNJ]

America wants to elect Barack Obama, but they are very unsure about him and are willing to look at other options.

That is my synopsis of the last few weeks.

Show them what you are made of over the next two months, Barack.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Thursday -  September 17, 2008:

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

[ChrisFromNJ]

The scales have tipped in our favor. If I were to use a baseball analogy, we just scored a touchdown in the 7th inning.

How do you score touchdowns in baseball?

[ChrisFromNJ]

September 20, 2008
Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 44%(nc)

[ChrisFromNJ]

It doesn't come out till 1 PM, where are you getting this from?

[ChrisFromNJ]

The financial markets have not truly recovered. We may be able to see how they are going to recover, erasing some of the fears of early in the week.

But the markets weren't just stock prices going up and down, that's just the visible reaction to the credit crisis and failure of some financial companies. The markets are reacting to news that not only impacts the prices of those stocks but they looked ahead to the macroeconomic impact over the next six or so months. The pain is far from over. Big layoffs begin next week.

If indeed last week held a long or intermediate bottom, it's likely we'll retest that bottom. Bottoms are often a "W" not just a "V." There's still tons of uncertainty out there to cause uncertainty in the market, including, even moreso now, the Nov 4 electon itself.

There's also the decent possibility we haven't even seen the bottom. After 9/11, stocks mostly dropped for the year following, the bottom being in

I'm sure many are aware of all this; I've just seen repeated comments about the "recovery" in the stock markets on Thurs and Fri, and it seemed people felt it would only get better from here. I'm not your typical "gloom and doom" on the economy Democrat.  But recent events are a once-in-a generation economic crisis. This could seriously get worse before it gets better.

Not to mention the fact that both political parties in Congress are beginning to spar over the terms of this bailout and it is possible that we may see gridlock here. We may not see such a bill passed until the end of this week, and while that happens, the markets will suffer.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 42 (-2)

[ChrisFromNJ]

McCain should be tied by Friday.

LOL!

[ChrisFromNJ]

Thursday, October 2nd

Obama: 48 (NC)
McCain 43 (-1)

[ChrisFromNJ]

Friday, October 3rd

Obama: 49 (+1)
Mccain: 42 (-1)