MA-D Primary (in Kennedy's District) - RABA Research/Jewish Insider: Markey +4%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Poll of the Senate race in the 4th Congressional District. The last RABA Research/Jewish Insider MA district poll apparently had some iffy crosstabs and I'm not sure about this one's quality (thoughts?).

I've listed figures for the House race in the appropriate megathread.

https://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/RABA_Jewish-Insider-MA04-August-2020-MQ.pdf

August 27-28, 2020
497 likely voters
MoE: 4.39%

Markey 48%
Kennedy 44%
Not sure 8%

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Everyone facing Auchincloss needs to drop out except one, I can't handle it if that idiot gets into congress.

[brucejoel99]

This is the kind of district poll that backs up the statewide polling showing a significant Markey lead.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, looks like Kennedy has done a great disservice to himself, since he's apparently headed for a loss. It was quite stupid not to wait a few years since Massachusetts has two senators in their 70s. He thought he was entitled due to his last time. Good Democrats reject this attitude.

[Skye]

RIP Kennedy.

[ON Progressive]

I would be shocked if Markey actually won MA-04, even if he wins by double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so down on Kennedys prospects, this is still MA that likes boring Markey, any other diverse state, Joe would easily beat Market

[Zaybay]

If Markey is winning Kennedy's district, then Kennedy is completely imploding. Honestly, I don't think the poll is any bit believable.

[SnowLabrador]

If Markey is winning Kennedy's district, then Kennedy is completely imploding. Honestly, I don't think the poll is any bit believable.

As someone who voted by mail for Kennedy in this primary, I'm not that surprised. I think he was unable to convince a majority of voters that he had a good reason for running, which is why I almost didn't vote for him.

[Zaybay]

If Markey is winning Kennedy's district, then Kennedy is completely imploding. Honestly, I don't think the poll is any bit believable.

As someone who voted by mail for Kennedy in this primary, I'm not that surprised. I think he was unable to convince a majority of voters that he had a good reason for running, which is why I almost didn't vote for him.

If Kennedy is losing his CD, then it’s a sign that he’s actively imploding. And I don’t see Kennedy’s voteshare plummeting as a possible scenario.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have 48 hrs til this race is called, nothing is certain in a Covid 19 environment,  look at the polling in the Prez race, its inconsistent. We can be in for a surprise Kennedy win on Tues

[Figueira]

Interestingly their MA-1 poll had Kennedy leading by 7. This combination seems pretty unlikely unless I'm badly misreading the Senate race.

I wouldn't be too surprised if Kennedy loses his home district though; he's only been there for a few years.

[n1240]

This poll ended up being insanely accurate (assuming nothing significant happens in the remaining count), by my count Markey is up by about 4% in MA-04, and they nailed vote shares for Auchincloss and Mermell.