Germany wins WW1?

[12th Doctor]

Russia aside, there were signs that Germany was willing to be moderately more forgiving of its Western European enemies than those enemies were of it.  Austria-Hungary, on the other hand, may have been a bit meaner.

Agreed.  Russia would lose its areas of modern Poland and Belarus, creating a puppet Poland out of those areas, and a puppet Ukraine out of that nation.  Finland would gain independence, but would be under essentially the same level of German influence as in the OT, which is to say, not much.  Germany likely would have taken a small portion of French territory, but not the huge swath often portrayed.  Belgium would become a German puppet state, also.

The British Empire would not have been under threat in any meaningful way, in the short term.  Full Irish independence might have been a condition of the treaty, but it might just has easily not have been, which might have meant no Irish independence, as England came down hard to reclaim some of its prestige.  Britain likely would have lost a few key, strategic islands in the Mediterranean, Indian Ocean and Pacific, but not much else.

The Austrian-Hungarians, however, likely would have done quite differently.  Italy would have experience major territorial losses in its Northeast, perhaps even losing Venice.  Serbia would fall completely under Austrian rule, as would Montenegro and Albania.  Romania would likely have been divided between Bulgaria and Austria.  Significant ethnic strife, and cleansing" would likely have ensued.

The Ottomans would probably try to lay claim to Greece, but success wouldn't be assured, with some gains in the Caucuses.  The Armenian genocide likely would have been even worse, and similar incidents would have occurred in all the lands the Ottomans nearly laid claim to.

In the long term, I think it is entirely plausible that Action Francias could have taken over the the French government and brought France under fascists rule.  The French, not having much experience with real democratic government, likely would have been as disillusioned with it as the German populace in 1932.

A more moderate Russian government, forced into compromise, might, indeed not all into communism.  In fact, the Germans occupying Ukraine likely would have doen what they could to prevent it.

An Italian regime in Rome, having lost all credibility, might have fallen in favor of a disunified peninsula, once again, though, probably only with three states, at the most.

Effects beyond that are hard to judge.  Likely Japan would have continued, or recontinued the war with Germany in the Pacific, and achieved victory.  A war between the United States and Japan was going to happen, sooner or later, but it would have been a different kind of war, and indeed, might have been started by the United States.

The United States is the major wildcard.  Would it have used this defeat (or rather, most likely, lack of entry into the war) as a confirmation of isolationism, or would it have tried to take advantage of the situation to expand its spheres of influence?

[12th Doctor]

Africa would be strongly redrawn in the aftermath of a Central Power victory.  Morocco likely regains independence for a while or becomes wholly Spanish if Germany desires to add Rio Muni to an expanded Kamerun.  Germany takes Walvis Bay and maybe Nyasaland (Malawi) and Northern Rhodesia (Zambia) from Britain, Angola and Northern Mozambique (making the Zambezi River the  southern limit of German control in East Africa) from the Portuguese, French Equatorial Africa and likely Dahomey from the French, and last but not least the Belgian Congo. (Expect many reports in the 1920s on the Belgian genocide there to justify taking away the entirety of Belgium's colonial territory.)

Italy might gain some territory, especially Tunisia, if Italy remains true to the Triple Alliance.

Some French territory would likely fall into German hands.  I high doubt that any British territory would, though.  The Germans wanted to be masters of the continent.  They had no interest in dismantling Britain's overseas empire.  Even through 1940, they were not interested in that.  Even Hitler wasn't seeking to destroy the Empire, and the Tories new this, which is why they were so eager to sign a peace.

Also, I assume that the most likely scenario for German victory is in 1918, resulting from lack of U.S. involvement.  Not to sound chauvinistic, by jingo, but the French were pretty damn close to collapsing before we landed, and the Germans still did pretty well throughout 1918.

[12th Doctor]

Something I forgot to mention before now... the Austrian-Hungarian Empire was destined for bloody collapse, regardless of the results of the war.  It simply would have taken a little longer.  They would have been ripped apart by civil war likely all through the 1920's and 30's.  It is hard to say though whether this would have caused a wider war, or if it would have remained local.

Many people think that a victory by the Central Powers would have been the end of their alliance.  I doubt that.  Austria-Hungary was far to weak to think of fighting Germany, and their internal strife would have driven that point home.  Even had the Germans pursued such a course, which is highly doubtful (why would they want to), Vienna likely would have given up anything but the farm to prevent a war.

It is possible that efforts to put down Islamic revolts in the Balkins would have led to a standoff and possible war between Vienna and Istanbul, but the Ottmans would have had their own problems holding down the Arabs.

The reorganized Balkans would hardly have been a powderkeg.  Russia would be too far away to provide any aid, and with German puppet states surrounding Vienna from the northeast, a weakened Italian Peninsula to the west, a Germany disinterested in intervention to the northwest, and a weak Sultan to the west, its hard to see where the conflict would arise.

As I said, the mostly likely scenario for a future global conflict to start would be a standoff between the United States and Japan.  The Japanese would probably take the opportunity presented to pick the carcass of Russia along the Pacific Rim.  A Second Russo-Japanese War would probably be fought in the 1920's.  Russia would lose, emphatically.

The Germans however didn't want to be terrirorial masters of Europe; the concept of Kleindeutschland - small Germany still held sway. However they certainly wished to be economic masters of Europe. Which is why I believe they would wish buffer client states that served the German economic machine. There would be something amazingly 'capitalistic' about the whole venture.

Agreed.

[12th Doctor]

Also, I would in no way discount the possibility of a War Plan Red-Orange Scenario from happening.  A war between the United States and the combined forces of Britain and Japan.

[12th Doctor]

Can we make a game of this!! j/k

Also, I would in no way discount the possibility of a War Plan Red-Orange Scenario from happening.  A war between the United States and the combined forces of Britain and Japan.

While the Japanese would certainly be 'game' I don't think the British would be so bellicose. The US and the UK were not engaged in any turf war prior to WWI and relationships were cordial. I could only see a war if the US provoked it and Japan responded. If Japan provoked it, Britain would not go to war (assuming the alliance system had broken down after the Great War) and our alliance with Japan ended in 1924 IIRC

If there was a war the US would be very vulnerable. I don't want to presume that they would be defeated but the experience of a naval assault would be...unpleasant.

Red-Orange was the scenario that the U.S. War Department feared the most, it was the one they thought most likely, and the one they thought we couldn't win.

[12th Doctor]

Can we make a game of this!! j/k

Also, I would in no way discount the possibility of a War Plan Red-Orange Scenario from happening.  A war between the United States and the combined forces of Britain and Japan.

While the Japanese would certainly be 'game' I don't think the British would be so bellicose. The US and the UK were not engaged in any turf war prior to WWI and relationships were cordial. I could only see a war if the US provoked it and Japan responded. If Japan provoked it, Britain would not go to war (assuming the alliance system had broken down after the Great War) and our alliance with Japan ended in 1924 IIRC

If there was a war the US would be very vulnerable. I don't want to presume that they would be defeated but the experience of a naval assault would be...unpleasant.

Red-Orange was the scenario that the U.S. War Department feared the most, it was the one they thought most likely, and the one they thought we couldn't win.

If you lost do you think the United States would remain 'united'? What was the strength of feeling?

Yes, but the history of the future would have looked very different.  For instance, think more Malcolm X and less Dr. King.  Without integration being forced by the wars, it is hard to see how it might have happened at all.  A defeated United States would be more tumultuous than in actual history, and probably less willing to accept a change of the current order.  FDR barely kept this country out of the extremes, I wonder how we would have fared if things had been worse.

But, that is a worst case scenario.  It is hard to assume that "defeat" would have been total, no matter the circumstances.  If the United States had lost, then we likely would have been forced to give up the Pacific and Caribbean.

One key question is, how badly would the British have butchered us on the coast?  The royal navy could have pounded the crap out of our east coast cities, but would they have?  Had they, then the worst case scenario becomes more likely.

During a war between the United States and Great Britain, a negotiated peace is likely, with a quid pro quo, but it is hard to think that the Japanese would ever negotiate, and if they didn't, neither would the British, most likely.

[12th Doctor]

An interesting side question is, what becomes of Churchill in this TL?  The Liberal Party would likely collapse anyway (more likely, with the loss of the war), but, as a major Amero-phile, would he have joined a Tory Party that would have supported the war?

Would he become like a Lincoln, ousted from power for speaking out against a popular war that he opposed?

[12th Doctor]

Grey areas are the important parts.

I think that map gives the Germans too much credit in terms of national sensitivities.  I highly doubt that would have gone out of their way to give all those nations states.  Three states, perhaps.  There would be a Ukraine (Moldova included), a Greater Poland (representing Belarus and the lower Baltic states in its boundaries), and then maybe a northern Baltic state encompassing Estonia and Latvia.  Basically, we would have a bunch of Czechoslovakias.