Hard to say. I can't imagine most of the Green-Independent voters (that's the Maine Green-Independent Party, not the Green Party) would vote for a Republican, and the same is probably true of Carol Keeton Strayhorn's supporters. Merrill was a Democrat before mounting her Independent bid, so she probably took more from Democrats, much like Strayhorn, whereas Friedman probably took about evenly from populist Democrats and populist Republicans.
Adding that up:
Baldacci:
38%
+8% from LaMarche (80% support)
+12.6% from Merrill (60% support)
=58.6% support
Perry:
39%
+6% from Friedman (50% support)
+12.6% from Strayhorn (70% support)
=57.6% support
(I give LaMarche a wider margin than Strayhorn because Strayhorn might have been tolerable to some Democrats while LaMarche, as a Green-Independent, was unlikely to have attracted sizeable Republican support.)
Of course, there's also the issue in Texas, not present in Maine, that many Friedman voters may not have bothered voting at all had he not run. Since I'm assuming Friedman took equally from everyone, though, it wouldn't make a difference.
Switch Strayhorn and Friedman % to Perry around and you have the correct answer. Friedman's strongest areas were in some hyper-Republican GOP suburbs, actually.
In a two-way race against Bell, Perry would have gotten about 53%-54%, imho.
The thing that will make Perry's governance a little bit more difficult is the fact that the Republican margin in the Texas House will only be 82-70 this time (the Dems won all the highly contested seats this time), making it a little harder to ram an agenda down (but only so much less, because there still are a good number of conservative DINOs there). The Republican state Senate margin is 20-11.
But since Lt. Gov David Dewhurst was re-elected and the Lt. Gov on Perry's side for the most part, that's about all you need to get your agenda in front of everyone else during the six months when the state legislature is in session. I doubt there will be many problems with Perry pushing through most of the things he has in mind.
