2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/devin-nunes-josh-harder-could-130000931.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nunes can still win in that seat, but it'd be harder to hold after '22.

No he wont, he will lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

JFC. If it's true, it's not Red Wave anymore. It's Red Tsunami.

NOT

No it's not Rs are trailing in 304 Senate seats D's are gonna win Man of Govs and keep the Sen and lose Seats on Cal, NY and IL for Redistricting stop trying to project a R Landsoa yr before an Election Biden and Trump are statistically tied just like they were deadlocked in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a 304 map state polls show DS netting WI and PA Sen and GA going to a Runoff, there AROUND THE FLAG IN THE 304 CORRIDOR RS are Favs to take H aNd DS are Favs in the SEN SO


BUT, RS ARE GONNA LOSE STS IN CAL , iL and NY

BEASLEY AND DEMING'S WERENT GONNA WIN THEY REMIND VOTERS TOO MUCH OF Kamala Harria


The idea that Election Guy says that Issa ,Nunes and Garcia aren't gonna lose in Pelosi Cali is silly, Newsom won with almost 70 percent and Padilla us gonna help in Southern Cali, he is Latino and he wasn't on recall ballot

For me, Newsom isnt important this is his last term anyways but will I vote for him over Harris in 28 Primary yes I will, Harris messed up the Border
 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's looking grim for Democrats, sure, but I don't see them losing every race by double digits.

State by state polls in AZ, PA and NV show DS holding their own in  S, RS have to crack the blue wall not DS cracking Red wall

Unless it's for wave insurance, it's still a yr before the Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Disaster poll. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible to keep gains minimal.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1459902596693602311

You are still going by polls a yr before the Election
It's the 304 map will be duplicated some polls have Biden at 50/45 where he needs to be duplicate the Blue wall while others show a 40%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I swear this country is an abusive relationship with the Republicans.
[/quote

Rs are popular like DeSantis because low taxes resonate in an inflationary Economy

Not because Rs are an Insurrectionists party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls are Hackish and other polls show higher leads for Biden and certainly aren't state by state on par with them

Why are we tied in WI, leading by 4 in AZ Sen and only poll in pA show us leading by nine

NV CCM is up by 46/41, it's only meaningful if they did state by state SEN POLLS which they chose not to do and it's a yr before the Election anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

At this point it seems trifectas only last two years and the party in power is punished for winning the presidency. This is not sustainable going forward.

At this point Dems should just try and lose the Presidency.  The presidency is of no use if you are just going to be a permanent minority in congress.

DS aren't gonna lose the Prez and let insurrectionist Trump back into office

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will keep the Senate it's a 304 map anyways, WI, PA SEN ARE LEAN TO we don't know about NC or OH SEN there isn't any polling but TX and FL are gone since Biden poor performance on Border Beto, Crist and Demings are down by double digits

House is still in play, Nunes, Issa, Garcia, 4/9 Rs can be Redistricted out in California, IL and NY and Pelosi said she is counting on her Speakership or Jeffries on CALI, Mccarthy is very unpopular here in Cali, here at home since he blocked the Insurrectionists Commission

Josh Mandel, Vance and Pat McCrory aren't so dunks, like Rubio or Grientans are but are they Favored yes because it's a 304 map, but we don't know til Aug 22

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We’re basically at the point where even a series of Republican recruitment failures, flawed Republican campaigns, and very aggressive Democratic redistricting decisions/gerrymanders would result in a 54R-46D Senate as well as a healthy GOP majority in the House. This one increasingly looks like it’s set in stone.

We're getting to the point where a 60R-40D Senate in 2025 looks more likely than not.

Are you serious, D's lead in all the swing state battleground stop trying to make this into an R sweep

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

*snip*

Here’s how NV-SEN and AZ-SEN are still Lean D:

They aren’t.

I know, that was the point. These races never were Lean (much less Likely) D in the first place, so this isn’t just my overreaction to recent polling (which, as we’ve seen, can be more volatile than one expects, suggesting perhaps that things are less 'polarized' than they’re made out to be). I still think Democrats have a good chance of holding NH/GA even in this environment (although I’d argue that Republicans are favored in GA), but even when I was expecting a better midterm for Democrats than I currently am, I didn’t really understand why people were so bullish about Democratic chances in PA/AZ/NV while simultaneously being more pessimistic about Democrats in NH/GA for some reason, even though the D lean/trend has consistently been favoring Democrats in those two states. From a pure 'fundamentals' perspective, Democrats were always going to struggle in PA/AZ/NV in a midterm under a D trifecta, which is why it made so little sense to argue that the Senate was far less likely to flip than the House (where gerrymandering can significantly mitigate Democratic losses). I’m not saying that any of these races are already lost for Democrats or anything (and I do think Republicans are still vulnerable in PA, especially if Parnell somehow really ends up as the likely nominee there), but I’d be surprised if the House/Senate didn’t move in unison in this election.

It’s just hilarious that a few months ago, picking Republicans to win NV-SEN was considered a "bold" prediction.

Biden Approvals in a USA Today or ABC poll won't be at 38 or 41 percent a year from now, they will be at 50 percent

Second of all look Ryan, Fetterman Mandela Barnes and Warnock and CCM and Hassan have never lost before, wbrooks is right when was the last time RS cracked the blue wall 2016 6 yrs ago with a flawed Hillary, you guys only won CO in 2014 and you picked up no blue states in Senate 2018 or 2020 and Trump beat a flawed Hillary


Brnovich is not Ducey, Ducey is Cindy McCain buddy Brnovich isn't Cindy McCain best Budd, that's why Brnovich hasn't lead in a single poll against Kelly

Last poll taken has Kelly leading every R 43/39 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't gonna beat Bob Casey Jr and MT Treasurer talking about Rs retaining PA in 22 and AZ Kelly losing is laughable because those seatsare expected to go D


Toomey would have lost in 2016 if Sestak not McGonty were nominated he barely beat her but 2 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1461800671716519946?s=20

This poll is meaningless it's 1000 days til Election day

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There isn't much difference than where we left off from 2020, if the Election were held today the EC map would be the same 304


We have wave insurance STS but that's only when and only when Biden Approvals hoaver around 50 percent


That's why when Rs talk about Landslided and 60 it's not factual because do you honestly believe that Rs are gonna have 54 sts, they only won 53 in 2014 and 2018 due to red wall STS we lost MO, IN, ND in 2018 and LA, AK and AR those are double digits red states

We didn't lose PA, OH, NC, TX or WI which STS are still in play.


The only red wall state is safe and D's aren't betting on is FL Beto, Ryan and Beshear have boyish looks for Female voters just like DeSantis

Don't think Females don't vote for make candidate based on looks Jon Ossoff is relatively boyishly

Olowakandi,
You are just talking massive NONSENSE over and over again.

# 1 Biden will not reach 50 % JA in his 1st Term again!

# 2 Biden is in a much more worse place compared to his former boss Obama.

# 3 According to the 2009 Virginia Exit Polls Obama had a 48/51 Job Approval Rating in the State compared to Bidens 46/53 YET Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by Double Digits

2009 VA Exits
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/2009.exit.polls.-.va.gov.pdf
PARTY ID: D 33 / I 30 / R 37

2021 VA Exits
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
PARTY ID: D 36 / I 30 / R 34

Obama also was inspiring. Biden is an old 80 year-old uninspiring sleepy figure.

VA tells us that 2022 will be a R-WAVE. It's unlikely R's get 63 House Seats like in 2010 but they don't need to. They will get between 20-30 though!

Marquette poll has Biden up 8 we won the NPVI In2020 80M votes whom is the Majority party DS, lol the RS haven't won the NPVi since 2014 you're the on e thinking the RS are the Majority and Trump didn't win the PVI either in both Election, I told this to you slready

2016 DS NPVI 65/62
2020 80M to 74M

DS are the Majority not Ra


Biden and Obama won 50 percent of the vote Trump 48 and Bush W 48 in 2004 of course he had Rove 51 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Election is in a yr it's not a White man election it's a blk brown and Female election that's why we have beaten you guys in almost every Prez election since 1992

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just remember Biden only has to get to 50)45 I'm a Neutral Environment to duplicate the 304 map but by Aug 22 we would definitely know how the Environment will be the D's put slot of infersis on BBB/BINF
For now it's a 304 map, Biden 46/51 is level pegging with 50/45

It's a Neutral Environment not a red or blue wave but a potential to be a blue wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be hard for RS to maintain this lead all the way til Nov, they can but it will be difficult

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have 2016 and S019 this Red wave won't last until Nov 22

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS can get excited all they want about pos there is still 338 days til the Election and they just folded on the Debt Ceiling which paves the way to BBB, BBB is gonna pass after RS preached to us they won't lift Debt Ceiling on a 5T dollar bill

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, again, it's not time to vote yet, we have 336 days til the Election, in 2018/ we didn't win 40H seats in 2017/ we won them in 2018

I feel very good about Biden getting to 50% the Rs just caved on Debt Ceiling, BBB is gonna pass as soon as Manchin agrees to it, after Rs cried about how it explodes the Debt now, they are gonna give D's 60 votes to Raise the Debt Ceiling without getting any concessions

2016/ forgotten whom won 80M votes D's did, it's called RALLY AROUND THE FLAG

ITS NOT AN R OR D WAVE UNTIL ALL THE VOTES ARE CASTED

I AM ENDORSING Warnock ABRAMS, RYAN, DEMINGS AND BETO, OBVIOUSLY, McCrory, DeWine, DESANTIS and Perdue can win

Split voting we won in very Red KY with Andy Beshear

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IPSOS just contradicted those 41/50 polls and Rs aren't plus 10 on GCB Biden is at 48/48 not 41/50

These media polls are beginning to look like the reverse of 2020/ where they had Trump at 41/50 and Trump was close to 48/ where Ds we're supposed to get a 413 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/voters-think-biden-making-inflation-worse

It's 300 days til Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be surprised if midterm penalties for the presidential party increase as polarization does. That's probably why 2022 looks like 2010 on steroids.

This is nonsensical, since polarization would mean the electorate is less swingy.

Most of the things SL says is nonsensical.

It does look like a 2010 midterm