India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

Summery of all 7 MSM polls by state

[jaichind]

My categorization problem with these charts are

1) SKM should NOT count as NDA since BJP is running a candidate in Sikkim and should count as Other
2) INDIA parties running separately from the INC in some states (AITC in WB, AAP in Punjab and LDF in Kerala) should not count as INDIA and should count as other.

[jaichind]

So it seems the, mostly pro-BJP, MSM polls have NDA at around 380-390 while the non-mainstream pro-INC polls have NDA at around 300.  My guess is that the NDA is around 350-360.

[jaichind]

NDA talking point: 2014 and 2019 MSM polls underestimated NDA so we should outperform MSM polls this time around point:

INDIA talking point: In 2019 Balakot strikes against Pakistan before the election tiled the result to NDA and if it was not for that NDA would have performed at or worse than the 2019 MSM polls

NDA talking point: In 2024 Ram Mandir is the Balakot strikes of 2024

INDIA talking point: Pre-election MSM polls always underestimate the incumbent front in their first run at re-election (1999 2009 2019) and overestimate the incumbent front in their second run at re-election (2004 2014) and likely 2024.

NDA talking point: Pre-election MSM polls always underestimate the winning front.  Since it is clear NDA will win in 2024 MSM polls underestimate the scale of NDA landslide to come.

[jaichind]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/elections/lok-sabha-election/lok-sabha-election-2024-psephologist-pradeep-guptas-views-on-states-where-nda-faces-an-uphill-battle-article-12666681.html

"Lok Sabha Election 2024: 13 states where BJP-led NDA faces uphill task, according to psephologist Pradeep Gupta"

Head of Axis My India which decided to only do exit polls versus pre-election polls this cycle said that the BJP will not gain and most likely lose seats across:

Maharashtra
Bihar 
MP 
Karnataka
Gujarat
Rajasthan
Jharkhand
Chhattisgarh
Haryana
Delhi
Uttarakhand,
HP
Goa
some Union Territories

This list goes against the MSM poll narrative. While it is clear NDA will lose seats in some of these states many polls have NDA making minor gains in these states.  Axis My India seems more negative than the median MSM poll for the NDA.

[jaichind]

Voting for Phase I which has 101 seats is tomorrow.

In 2019 NDA won 48 out of these 101 seats.
This time around I expected NDA to win 50 of these seats mostly driven by BJP gains in UP of offset some losses elsewhere.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Voting for Phase I which has 101 seats is tomorrow.

In 2019 NDA won 48 out of these 101 seats.
This time around I expected NDA to win 50 of these seats mostly driven by BJP gains in UP of offset some losses elsewhere.

Is there a way we can tell which parties have momentum following each phase given no polls will be released

[jaichind]

Is there a way we can tell which parties have momentum following each phase given no polls will be released

Sadly no.  Back in 2004 exit polls were allowed after each phase.  Pre-election polls in 2004 showed NDA with 350 seats and you can see the projection fall with each phase and it ended up being 250 by the end of the last phase with the final result being NDA at 189 seats.

BTW, the INC is claiming the same thing will take place and there are all sorts of structural reasons why this will not take place this year, for sure not on the same scale.

Of course now it is complete blackout until voting are completely done.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is there a way we can tell which parties have momentum following each phase given no polls will be released

Sadly no.  Back in 2004 exit polls were allowed after each phase.  Pre-election polls in 2004 showed NDA with 350 seats and you can see the projection fall with each phase and it ended up being 250 by the end of the last phase with the final result being NDA at 189 seats.

BTW, the INC is claiming the same thing will take place and there are all sorts of structural reasons why this will not take place this year, for sure not on the same scale.

Of course now it is complete blackout until voting are completely done.

Wow so the BJP went from being expected to basically win a 2019 style victory in 2004 to outright defeat .

[jaichind]

Is there a way we can tell which parties have momentum following each phase given no polls will be released

Sadly no.  Back in 2004 exit polls were allowed after each phase.  Pre-election polls in 2004 showed NDA with 350 seats and you can see the projection fall with each phase and it ended up being 250 by the end of the last phase with the final result being NDA at 189 seats.

BTW, the INC is claiming the same thing will take place and there are all sorts of structural reasons why this will not take place this year, for sure not on the same scale.

Of course now it is complete blackout until voting are completely done.

Wow so the BJP went from being expected to basically win a 2019 style victory in 2004 to outright defeat .

Correct.  I remember right after the 2004 election, the BJP was talking about BJP winning 300 seats on its own.

I remember very early on in the 2004 cycle I felt that the NDA would lose ground and most likely not win a majority.  And each phase of exit polls confirmed my view. Of course, the final result was a shock to me as to the scale of the NDA defeat.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is there a way we can tell which parties have momentum following each phase given no polls will be released

Sadly no.  Back in 2004 exit polls were allowed after each phase.  Pre-election polls in 2004 showed NDA with 350 seats and you can see the projection fall with each phase and it ended up being 250 by the end of the last phase with the final result being NDA at 189 seats.

BTW, the INC is claiming the same thing will take place and there are all sorts of structural reasons why this will not take place this year, for sure not on the same scale.

Of course now it is complete blackout until voting are completely done.

Wow so the BJP went from being expected to basically win a 2019 style victory in 2004 to outright defeat .

Correct.  I remember right after the 2004 election, the BJP was talking about BJP winning 300 seats on its own.

I remember very early on in the 2004 cycle I felt that the NDA would lose ground and most likely not win a majority.  And each phase of exit polls confirmed my view. Of course, the final result was a shock to me as to the scale of the NDA defeat.

You actually made some pretty foreshadowing posts on that thread

A ray of hope for INC.

In Tamil Nadu a powerful front of DMK, MDMK, PMK, INC, CPM, and CPI seems to have been formed.  BJP now stands alone in TN and will have to align with AIADMK.  AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha already said that it will contest at least 33 of 39 TN seats.  BJP might have to accept such terms less it gets wiped out in TN.  Even if a AIADMK-BJP front is formed most likely it will be no match for the new DMK-led front.

NCP is moving closer to a INC-NCP alliance in Maharastra and avoid a repeat of 1999 when BJP-Shiv Shiva swept the polls there due to the split of the INC and NCP.

In critial Uttar Pradesh, SP has ruled out an alliance with BJP while INC is moving close to BSP.  In a three corned battle between SP front, BSP-INC, and BJP the BJP most likely will capture less than the 29 seats it has now.  INC-BSP alliance will also help in places like MP, Rajastan, and Gujurat.  

In Bihar, JD(U) is falling apart and the BJP is also in bad shape.  RJD is looking good and the RJD-INC will for sure gain seats over the BJP-JD(U) alliance.

In Northeast India, the NDA might gain a few seats over the INC but most likely very much.

In AP. TDP-BJP still has the edge, but if an INC-TRS-CPM alliance can be formed then it could lower the TDP-BJP total from 1999.  

If these postive trends can be consolidated when the polls come in March or May 2004, the LS elections might produce a situation where no party nor front has a majority.  Both BJP and INC will have around 150 seats or so.  This will lead to a weak and unstable coalition governments and another election might come before the 5 year team is up.

 

I posted an essay from The Hindu which mimic my views that the NDA does not have it in the bag.  It is like the 1998 USA Congressional elections.  The national trend pointed toward a GOP gain but if one went disctict by disctrict a different result emerged.  Same here, a state b state analysis shows that if anything, NDA wil lose ground from 1999.

[eos]

Is there a way we can tell which parties have momentum following each phase given no polls will be released

Sadly no.  Back in 2004 exit polls were allowed after each phase.  Pre-election polls in 2004 showed NDA with 350 seats and you can see the projection fall with each phase and it ended up being 250 by the end of the last phase with the final result being NDA at 189 seats.

BTW, the INC is claiming the same thing will take place and there are all sorts of structural reasons why this will not take place this year, for sure not on the same scale.

Of course now it is complete blackout until voting are completely done.

Wow so the BJP went from being expected to basically win a 2019 style victory in 2004 to outright defeat .

Correct.  I remember right after the 2004 election, the BJP was talking about BJP winning 300 seats on its own.

I remember very early on in the 2004 cycle I felt that the NDA would lose ground and most likely not win a majority.  And each phase of exit polls confirmed my view. Of course, the final result was a shock to me as to the scale of the NDA defeat.

You actually made some pretty foreshadowing posts on that thread

A ray of hope for INC.

In Tamil Nadu a powerful front of DMK, MDMK, PMK, INC, CPM, and CPI seems to have been formed.  BJP now stands alone in TN and will have to align with AIADMK.  AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha already said that it will contest at least 33 of 39 TN seats.  BJP might have to accept such terms less it gets wiped out in TN.  Even if a AIADMK-BJP front is formed most likely it will be no match for the new DMK-led front.

NCP is moving closer to a INC-NCP alliance in Maharastra and avoid a repeat of 1999 when BJP-Shiv Shiva swept the polls there due to the split of the INC and NCP.

In critial Uttar Pradesh, SP has ruled out an alliance with BJP while INC is moving close to BSP.  In a three corned battle between SP front, BSP-INC, and BJP the BJP most likely will capture less than the 29 seats it has now.  INC-BSP alliance will also help in places like MP, Rajastan, and Gujurat.  

In Bihar, JD(U) is falling apart and the BJP is also in bad shape.  RJD is looking good and the RJD-INC will for sure gain seats over the BJP-JD(U) alliance.

In Northeast India, the NDA might gain a few seats over the INC but most likely very much.

In AP. TDP-BJP still has the edge, but if an INC-TRS-CPM alliance can be formed then it could lower the TDP-BJP total from 1999.  

If these postive trends can be consolidated when the polls come in March or May 2004, the LS elections might produce a situation where no party nor front has a majority.  Both BJP and INC will have around 150 seats or so.  This will lead to a weak and unstable coalition governments and another election might come before the 5 year team is up.

 

I posted an essay from The Hindu which mimic my views that the NDA does not have it in the bag.  It is like the 1998 USA Congressional elections.  The national trend pointed toward a GOP gain but if one went disctict by disctrict a different result emerged.  Same here, a state b state analysis shows that if anything, NDA wil lose ground from 1999.

That’s an amazing prediction.

[ꙮ]

I suppose I understand the reasons behind it, but I find it very strange that elections to the Indian Parliament are held on a rolling basis like this. I know that's how elections were held in early America, on different days in each state.

Are there any other countries that currently do this for directly elected legislatures?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I suppose I understand the reasons behind it, but I find it very strange that elections to the Indian Parliament are held on a rolling basis like this. I know that's how elections were held in early America, on different days in each state.

Are there any other countries that currently do this for directly elected legislatures?

You could argue with how extensive mail in voting is and how different the laws are per state , we are a nation that sorta votes like this now (though obviously not nearly to the extent)

[eos]

I suppose I understand the reasons behind it, but I find it very strange that elections to the Indian Parliament are held on a rolling basis like this. I know that's how elections were held in early America, on different days in each state.

Are there any other countries that currently do this for directly elected legislatures?

Multiple phases with long intervals were initially done because of security reasons, but everyone quickly realised this could be optimised for campaigning. India went from few phases in 10-14 days in 1996 and 1998 to 6 weeks and 7 phases in 2024! There’s really no justification for a campaign this long.

[jaichind]

I suppose I understand the reasons behind it, but I find it very strange that elections to the Indian Parliament are held on a rolling basis like this. I know that's how elections were held in early America, on different days in each state.

Are there any other countries that currently do this for directly elected legislatures?

Multiple phases with long intervals were initially done because of security reasons, but everyone quickly realised this could be optimised for campaigning. India went from few phases in 10-14 days in 1996 and 1998 to 6 weeks and 7 phases in 2024! There’s really no justification for a campaign this long.

It is also about the deployment of poll workers to set up poll stations.  There is not the number of workers and resources to deploy all of them at once.  Of course, these limitations are also correlated to security issues as well.

[jaichind]

Is there a way we can tell which parties have momentum following each phase given no polls will be released

Sadly no.  Back in 2004 exit polls were allowed after each phase.  Pre-election polls in 2004 showed NDA with 350 seats and you can see the projection fall with each phase and it ended up being 250 by the end of the last phase with the final result being NDA at 189 seats.

BTW, the INC is claiming the same thing will take place and there are all sorts of structural reasons why this will not take place this year, for sure not on the same scale.

Of course now it is complete blackout until voting are completely done.

Just to add more color to my view on where 2024 is similar to 2004 and where 2024 is not similar to 2004.

In some ways, I am beginning to see how 2024 has similar dynamics to 2004. 

 There have always been a bunch of issues related to underemployment and price inflation at the ground level which is related to India not being able, yet, to build a mass industrial economy.  In 2019 these issues seem to be covered up with the word "Modi."   I think this time around using the word "Modi" will not make these issues go away.  In that sense, 2024 is like 2004 where Modi, like Vajpayee, can no longer be used to cover up all the personal economic challenges voters face.   This is why I tend to dismiss all these polls with NDA at 380 390 or even 400.

But where 2024 is not like 2004 is the level of BJP micro-level management, BJP influence of mass media, and INC being viewed as a viable alternative is not the same as 2004.  The personal economic challenges which are quite real for many voters have not yet been translated into a personal perception that this is a national issue (due to the way the BJP-influenced mass media operates) so these challenges are viewed as personal in nature and not part of a national narrative where the blame can be pinned on Modi.  The fairly effective targeted BJP freebie welfare programs also increase BJP micro-level management to reinforce the view that while the BJP is not the solution to the problems the BJP is the the source of the problem and for sure the INC is not the solution.

It is for those reasons 2024 will not be another 2004 even if the BJP will not do as well as these MSM polls suggest.

[jaichind]

TN average of Thanti (anti-BJP The Hindu group media) and Dinamalar (Tamil Brahmin and likely pro-BJP) polls on a seat by seat basis has DMK+ bloc at 40% which frankly most understates DMK+ strength but if true then the DMK+ could lose a bunch of seats to BJP+ and AIADMK.

[jaichind]

Voting for Phase I which has 101 seats is tomorrow.

In 2019 NDA won 48 out of these 101 seats.
This time around I expected NDA to win 50 of these seats mostly driven by BJP gains in UP of offset some losses elsewhere.

BTW, I report that 101 seats will vote in phase 1 but many media outfits report 102 seats.   The difference is due to a very special technicality.  The security situation in the Outer Manipur seat is so bad that voting will be done over 2 voting days there (April 19 and April 26) so half the seat will vote one day and the other half will vote the other.  I count this seat as April 26th (phase 2) but I guess various media count this as April 19 (phase 1). 

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/nagaland-lok-sabha-poll-eastern-districts-observe-shutdown-no-votes-cast-in-20-segments/articleshow/109427512.cms

"Nagaland Lok Sabha poll: Eastern districts observe shutdown, no votes cast in 20 segments"

Turnout in 20 out of 60 assembly segments in Nagaland is 0% due to boycott over the creation of Frontier Nagaland

Pictures from voting booths



 
For turnout to be 0% then coercion from ENPO must be being applied.

Some info on Frontier Nagaland

One big unknown in the Nagaland assembly elections is if ENPO will contest or if will they call for a boycott of the assembly elections.

https://www.eastmojo.com/nagaland/2023/01/17/positive-discussion-with-enpo-on-separate-state-demand-nagaland-cm/

"Positive discussion with ENPO on separate state demand: Nagaland CM "

EPNO is the main party that is pushing for the creation of the state of Frontier Nagaland


Easter Nagaland or Frontier Nagaland was on paper in British India but was never directly administered by the British Raj.  It was more of a buffer zone between British India and Burma and then after the British took over Burma just left there was no man's land.  Because of this Eastern Nagaland was always less developed than the rest of Nagaland.  Now there is a push to create Frontier Nagaland to ensure resources go to developing that area.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/days-after-defecting-to-bjp-chhindwara-mayor-asks-people-to-vote-for-congress-101713514616327.html

"Days after defecting to BJP, Chhindwara mayor asks people to vote for Congress"

The INC mayor of Chhindwara, the seat of the son of former MP INC CM Kamal Nath, defected to BJP 4 days ago in a blow to INC.  Now on election day he decides to defect back.  I assume he is hedging?

[jaichind]

https://www.outlookindia.com/elections/this-election-is-about-making-india-a-big-global-power-in-next-5-years-pm-modi

"This Election Is About Making India A Big Global Power In Next 5 Years: PM Modi"

Fits my narrative that the BJP strategy is about making the election about bigger issues than day to day experience of the average voter.  The economic reality of the average voter, especially in the Hindi heartland, given underemployment, inflation corruption etc etc could turn them against the BJP.  So the BJP goal has to make the election about something greater than what the average voter personally experiences.   

[jaichind]

Turnout so far.  Usually, these numbers are behind and you should add around 5%-6% to these numbers.

The places with big turnout falls are Nagaland (this is Frontier Nagaland) and Rajasthan. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is there a way we can tell which parties have momentum following each phase given no polls will be released

Sadly no.  Back in 2004 exit polls were allowed after each phase.  Pre-election polls in 2004 showed NDA with 350 seats and you can see the projection fall with each phase and it ended up being 250 by the end of the last phase with the final result being NDA at 189 seats.

BTW, the INC is claiming the same thing will take place and there are all sorts of structural reasons why this will not take place this year, for sure not on the same scale.

Of course now it is complete blackout until voting are completely done.

Just to add more color to my view on where 2024 is similar to 2004 and where 2024 is not similar to 2004.

In some ways, I am beginning to see how 2024 has similar dynamics to 2004.  

 There have always been a bunch of issues related to underemployment and price inflation at the ground level which is related to India not being able, yet, to build a mass industrial economy.  In 2019 these issues seem to be covered up with the word "Modi."   I think this time around using the word "Modi" will not make these issues go away.  In that sense, 2024 is like 2004 where Modi, like Vajpayee, can no longer be used to cover up all the personal economic challenges voters face.   This is why I tend to dismiss all these polls with NDA at 380 390 or even 400.

But where 2024 is not like 2004 is the level of BJP micro-level management, BJP influence of mass media, and INC being viewed as a viable alternative is not the same as 2004.  The personal economic challenges which are quite real for many voters have not yet been translated into a personal perception that this is a national issue (due to the way the BJP-influenced mass media operates) so these challenges are viewed as personal in nature and not part of a national narrative where the blame can be pinned on Modi.  The fairly effective targeted BJP freebie welfare programs also increase BJP micro-level management to reinforce the view that while the BJP is not the solution to the problems the BJP is the the source of the problem and for sure the INC is not the solution.

It is for those reasons 2024 will not be another 2004 even if the BJP will not do as well as these MSM polls suggest.

Also fundamentally quality of life is much much higher than it was in 2004. In 2004 much of India didn’t have basic plumbing(even in urban areas!), places were far less electrified , and in general things were far less developed.

I saw this first hand as when I visited India in 2005 it felt like going decades back in time , while when I visited India in 2022 it felt like a modern place . Technology has also made a huge difference as in 2022 it seemed like every street vendor used UPI which is huge . Now the street vendor no longer has to take time of the day to deposit money into their bank accounts , can watch tv/make phone calls on one device which is much cheaper for them .

While they might not be getting the income to be considered middle class , technological advancements have made living like the middle class easier than before .

[jaichind]

Exit poll ban to last until 6:30 PM on June 1st.  You can still do exit polls but you cannot publish until that time.

https://twitter.com/ECISVEEP/status/1781324108632035770