India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

Other than LS elections in May there are a bunch of assembly elections: Odisha, AP, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and most likely J&K.

Odisha, AP, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim will for sure be held at the same time as the LS elections. NDA-controlled Haryana and Maharashtra might hold their assembly election early at the same time as the LS election due to the BJP's view that having Modi at the top of the ballot will help them down-ballot in assembly elections although the experience of Odisha in 2009 2014 and 2019 has shown this is not necessary the case (there is clear vote splitting with BJD outperforming in assembly elections even held at the same time as the LS elections.)

JMM-INC-controlled Jharkhand will most likely not play along and J&K's schedule is at the mercy of the redistricting and voter roll process and is unlikely to be held at the same time as LS elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/chandigarh-news/will-attend-ram-temple-opening-in-ayodhya-sukhu-101704040101646.html

"Will attend Ram Temple opening in Ayodhya: Sukhu"

HP INC CM Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu was not invited to the Ayodhya Ram temple consecration but will attend anyway.  This shows how important this event is in the Hindi heartland.  Southern INC leaders can scoff at the event because their voter base does not care that much about this but this is not the case in the Hindi North.

[jaichind]

ABP-Covter poll on LS elections done in late Dec 2023

https://twitter.com/NewsArenaIndia/status/1739295800264687927

I was right that the ABP-CVoter poll will have NDA at 315.  They have INDIA at 185.

The vote share is NDA 42% INDIA 38%

[jaichind]

Ayodhya Ram Mandir's consecration will be on Jan 22.  This is most likely the largest Hindu event in centuries and could very well change the entire nature of Hinduism.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/jmmled-coalition-convenes-meeting-amid-speculation-about-soren-s-continuation-101704185855090.html

"JMM-led coalition convenes meeting amid speculation about Soren’s continuation"

It seems Jharkhand  JMM CM Hemant Soren might be in legal trouble.  It is possible he might have to resign as CM and name his wife as the new CM leading the JMM-INC-RJD coalition.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ayodhya Ram Mandir's consecration will be on Jan 22.  This is most likely the largest Hindu event in centuries and could very well change the entire nature of Hinduism.

Yeah , I know a lot of Hindus who have mentioned how monumental this moment is

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/parties-lok-sabha-polls-spend-may-top-rs-1-lakh-crore-spur-growth-in-q4/articleshow/106494009.cms

"Parties' Lok Sabha polls spend may top Rs 1 lakh crore, spur growth in Q4"

Spending for LS elections will most likely top $12 billion which in PPP terms would be more like $40 billion spending in the USA.  The size is so large that it is expended to make a difference to India's GDP growth in the quarter right before the LS election.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/bjp-coins-new-slogan-for-2024-lok-sabha-polls-ab-ki-baar-400-paar-11704211730336.html

"BJP coins new slogan for 2024 Lok Sabha polls—‘…Ab ki baar 400 paar’"

BJP target to win 400 LS seats in this upcoming election.  This is very unlikely.  There is a large belt of Eastern and Southern India where the BJP will win just a handful of seats and can only win a large number of seats when there is a local ally.  BJP is nowhere in AP, can at most win 1-2 seats in Kerala, is nowhere in TN unless allied with either DMK or AIADMK, can only limited number of seats in Odisa and WB, and with the INC surge in Telangana can only win a few seats there.  With all this going against BJP in those states I cannot see how they get to 400.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/opposition-india-bloc-congress-sp-bsp-9092015/

"BSP in INDIA, or not? Why SP and Congress are not on same page"

In UP, INC is trying to get BSP to join the INDIA alliance against the wishes of SP.  In theory, the INC argument is about consolidating the Dalit vote and avoiding the split of the Muslim vote but in reality this is about INC's fear that an alliance with SP would mean SP eats up what is left of the INC base in UP.  The 2019 SP-BSP-RLD alliance shows that the SP vote was mostly transferred to BSP but not the other way around.  This is not due to some scheme by BSP but it is more about the reality that the BJP has won the 3-way battle between BJP BSP and INC for the Non-Jatav Dalit and that a non-BSP candidate running in any district means all of the non-Jatav Dalit votes goes to BJP.   In many ways having BSP run separately might be better for INDIA since BSP could make sure that some of the non-Jatav Dalit vote does not flow to the BJP candidate.

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/politics/bihar-cm-nitish-kumar-may-become-india-convenor-with-congress-help-124010200917_1.html

"Bihar CM Nitish Kumar may become INDIA convenor with Congress help"

There is a lot of maneuvering here.  RJD wants to see Nitish Kumar move to Federal politics so RJD can take over the CM spot after the 2025 Bihar assembly elections if not after the 2024 LS elections.  Many in JD(U) are scared of this since such a move would mean the RJD and BJP will eat up what is left of JD(U) and turn Bihar into a BJP vs RDJ state.

Rahul Gandhi always got along well with Nitish Kumar so this INC move could be about doing RJD a favor and avoiding a RJD-JD(U) blowup after the LS elections plus getting Nitish Kumar to be a mascot of the anti-BJP front at the national level along with Rahul Gandhi.  Nitish Kumar's age and cut off from his Bihar base also means he will not be a long-term threat to Rahul Gandhi anyway.

[jaichind]

Poll on Indian views on intra-caste marriages. Note that even with non-Hindus there is a concept of caste.  Even when Hindus converted to other religions their caste identities in some form are still carried over.   There is a gap between rural-urban, college-educated-non-college educated, and youth-older but these gaps are smaller than one would expect.   Note that Dalits and Tribal caste identity is just as strong if not stronger than Upper Castes.

I think these views show what an uphill fight INC has everywhere except for the South given their theoretical message of secularism.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/andhra-cm-jagan-mohan-s-sister-ys-sharmila-to-join-congress-today-101704344458013.html

"Andhra CM Jagan Mohan’s sister YS Sharmila joins Congress"

AP YSRCP CM Jagan Mohan Reddy's sister formally merges YSRTP into INC.

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Nyay Yatra route.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/03/business/india-adani-hindenburg-court-probe-hnk-intl/index.html

"Indian billionaire Gautam Adani says ‘truth has prevailed’ after top court orders regulators to wrap up probe"

The Adani-Hindenburg battle since 2022 seems to have Adani with a clear advantage.  Adani stock prices are not back to where it was in late 2022 when the Hindenburg report came out but have recovered most of the ground they lost.  In the end, Adani was not proven to be a fraud although I continue to believe it is overvalued (it has a high debt burden and is not that profitable).  Adani's stock price is at an elevated level mostly due to the belief that the BJP, but especially Modi, will return to power in 2024 and Adani will continue to get large government infrastructure contracts.

The Adani recovery has taken one of the weapons INC had planned to use against the Modi/BJP in the 2024 elections off the table.

[Continential]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/andhra-cm-jagan-mohan-s-sister-ys-sharmila-to-join-congress-today-101704344458013.html

"Andhra CM Jagan Mohan’s sister YS Sharmila joins Congress"

AP YSRCP CM Jagan Mohan Reddy's sister formally merges YSRTP into INC.

I think the Congress’s strategy is to return the favor to the TDP for supporting them informally in Telangana by recruiting someone who could potentially dethrone a nuisance/traitor and split a large portion of the YSR vote to make a TDP victory more easier; and thereby potentially setting the Congress in a position to take power in the next legislative election after 2024.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/andhra-cm-jagan-mohan-s-sister-ys-sharmila-to-join-congress-today-101704344458013.html

"Andhra CM Jagan Mohan’s sister YS Sharmila joins Congress"

AP YSRCP CM Jagan Mohan Reddy's sister formally merges YSRTP into INC.
 

I think the Congress’s strategy is to return the favor to the TDP for supporting them informally in Telangana by recruiting someone who could potentially dethrone a nuisance/traitor and split a large portion of the YSR vote to make a TDP victory more easier; and thereby potentially setting the Congress in a position to take power in the next legislative election after 2024.

Interesting theory.  It could be true.  At this stage for the INC in AP, beggars cannot be choosers.  INC's goal in AP this election would to relevant.  There is a lot of churn right now in AP.  BJP wants to ally with JSP to corner the non-YSRCP non-TDP vote the INC is going after but JSP wants to get TDP involved.  BJP is against that because it does not want to burn bridges with YSRCP in case YRSCP wins and it would dilute the growth of the BJP in AP that it desires.   INC's strategy seems to be that the YSRCP vote is the old INC vote finding ways to claw back the YSRCP vote is the way toward relevance for the INC in AP.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/dont-need-pity-congress-attacks-mamata-banerjee-over-bengal-seat-sharing-101704364911254.html

"Congress attacks Mamata Banerjee over ‘2 seats’ offer; TMC claims ‘double game’"

In WB it seems AITC offered INC 2 seats which is viewed as an insult as AITC and INC step up attacks on each other.  The ideal setup for the INDIA alliance in WB would be

AITC-INC vs BJP vs Left Front

This way
a) Those who want Modi as PM would vote for BJP (that was never going to change)
b) These that like AITC CM Mamata Banerjee would vote for AITC-INC
c) Thse that want Rahul Gandhi as PM would vote for AITC-INC
d) Former Left Front supporters that shifted to BJP due to being anti-AITC but lukewarm on Modi will vote Left Front

Which would work to minimize BJP seats.

[jaichind]

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/lok-sabha-elections-2024-congress-to-focus-on-255-seats-in-bid-to-accommodate-india-partners/3356082/

"Lok Sabha elections 2024: Congress to focus on 255 seats in a bid to accommodate INDIA partners"

It sounds like INC which contested 421 seats in 2019 will be realistic and focus on fewer seats, in this case, 255.  To be fair 255 seems low.

I constructed a chart of the number of INC seats contested by the state in 2019 and what would be reasonable given the ground reality. I ended up with INC contesting 286. 

For INC to say they will focus on 255 sorts of means they are, correctly, writing off the 25 seats in AP where it will be mostly YSRCP vs TDP.  If you take that into account it seems INC plans to contest 290 seats which is similar to my calculation of 286 seats.  For them to get to a number similar to my number which makes the assumption that INC is putting aside ego and contesting based on a realistic assessment of strength in each state seems to imply that time time INC is humbled and is being realistic.  Their main challenge would be that the state-level party units might rebel at this approach.

State              Total 2019 2024
J&K                    5    4    2   -> Let PDP and JKNC contest Mulsim seats
HP                     4    4    4
Haryana           10   10   9   -> Give a seat to AAP
Punjab             13   13  13  -> Make more sense for AAP and INC to contest separately
Delhi                 7    7    2  -> split 5-2 between AAP and INC
Uttarakhand       5    5    5
UP                   80   67    6  -> Take 6 seats as part of a deal with SP
Bihar               40    9    6  -> take 6 to accommodate JD(U)
MP                  29   29   26 -> Give 3 seats to regional tribal parties
Rajasthan        25   25   22 -> give 3 seats to regional/tribal parties
Chhattisgarh    11   11    9 -> Give 2 seats to regional tribal parties
Jharkhand        14    7    6  -> Give up 1 seat to accommodate Left
Gujarat            26   26   23 -> Give 3 seats to AAP
Maharashtra     48   25   16 -> Take 16 to accommodate VBA along with SHS(U) and NCP(Pawar)
Goa                   2    2    2
WB                 42   40    4  -> Take 4 seats from AITC
Orissa             21   18   17 -> Give 1 seat to regional tribal
Karnataka       28   21   26  -> No JD(S) alliance but try to give 2 seats to BJP or JD(S) rebels
AP                  25   25   25  -> Not that relevant here but no ally in sight
Telangana       17   17   17
TN                 39      9    9
Kerala            20   16   15
A&N                  1    1    1
Chandigarh       1    1    1
D&N H              1    1    0
D&D                 1    1    1
Pondicherry       1    1    1
Ladakh             1    1     1
Lakshadweep    1    1    1
Assam            14   14   10  -> Try to get tactical deals with AIUDF and Left
Arunachal P       2    2    2
Manipur             2    2    1 -> Deal with regional parties
Mizoram            1    0    0
Nagaland           1    1    0
Tripura              2    2    1 ->Deal with regional parties
Meghalaya         2    2    1 ->Deal with regional parties
Sikkim              1    1    1
Total           543  421  286

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/jdu-rjd-may-contest-16-lok-sabha-seats-each-leave-8-for-congress-left/articleshow/106556547.cms

"JD(U) & RJD may contest 16 Lok Sabha seats each in Bihar, leave 8 for Congress, Left"

JD(U) and RJD seem to have made this deal without INC and Left Front being involved.  Nitish Kumar most likely did this on purpose to put pressure on INC to back him to be the INDIA Convenor which puts him in contention to be the INDIA PM face.
 

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/politics/india-bloc-faces-trinamool-congress-test-struggles-to-reach-a-consensus-124010501163_1.html

"INDIA bloc faces Trinamool Congress test over chairperson, convenor posts"

Of these 255, the Congress would be willing to concede even further to accommodate not just its current INDIA allies but also potential ones, such as the Bharatiya Adivasi Party, which won three seats in Rajasthan and one in Madhya Pradesh in the Assembly polls.

It seems INC is taking my advice from back in December last year.

If I were INC, my approach in MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh for the LS election would be one of "死馬當活馬醫" or "try to heal a dead horse as if the horse was alive". What I would do is form an alliance with the tribal BAP and BJP Jat splinter RLP in Rajasthan, and form an alliance with the Gond tribal GGP in MP and  Chhattisgarh. Most likely the Modi wave cannot be stopped in these 3 states but all the more reason to try to throw some hail maries by giving these local parties a seat in the LS elections.

In 2018 after BJP Jat splinter RLP overperformed in assembly elections, the BJP quickly formed an alliance with RLP in the 2019 LS elections in Rajasthan.   INC has to show a similar level of flexibility.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/bjp-senior-leaders-ls-rs-nadda-shah-9097003/

"BJP wants senior leaders to contest Lok Sabha polls, ministers who are RS MPs also in list"

The BJP has conveyed to senior leaders of the party, particularly those who are now into their third term in the Rajya Sabha, that they will have to contest the coming Lok Sabha elections, to earn their place in Parliament. They include leaders who are currently serving as Cabinet ministers.

The BJP's success in the assembly elections in the Hindi belt in late 2023 means they will double down on the lessons from those elections: Put in high-profile candidates in difficult districts as early as possible so they can connect with voters as early as possible.  By putting high-profile candidates BJP projects an image of being a merit-based party where no one can rest on their laurels and have to constantly prove themselves.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/india/congress-still-undecided-on-ram-temple-invite-says-decision-very-soon-2838071

"Congress still undecided on Ram temple invite, says decision 'very soon'"

Kharge and former party chief Sonia Gandhi have been invited for the event and the Congress had earlier said that their decision would be conveyed at the 'right time'.

INC is trapped in a wedge issue.  Most likely key INC leaders will have to go due to the risk of being viewed as anti-Hindu.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/060124/rayadurg-mla-kapu-ramachandra-reddy-quits-ysrc.html

"Rayadurg MLA Kapu Ramachandra Reddy quits YSRC"

In AP, this is the second YSRCP MLA to join INC.  Both of them would not be getting tickets anyway but it is interesting they are joining INC versus, say BJP or JSP.  YS Sharmila joining INC is having an impact on the preceptions of INC.  They will still be not that relevant in 2024 but if YSRCP loses in 2024 and then falls apart INC could have a chance at a comeback.

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/india-bloc-to-decide-in-10-15-days-on-who-will-hold-which-post-says-congress-kharge/articleshow/106598201.cms

"INDIA bloc to decide in 10-15 days on who will hold which post, says Congress' Kharge"

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on Saturday said leaders of INDIA parties would take a decision within 10-15 days on the allocation of posts in the opposition bloc, remarks that come amid speculation that the alliance could pick a convener ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Addressing a press conference, he also said that all other matters including seat-sharing of the INDIA bloc would be resolved soon, with party sources indicating that this is likely to be concluded by the month-end.

One thing that hurt INC in the run-up to the 2019 LS elections is the dragging out of various alliance talks.  Perhaps they learned that lesson for this time.

[jaichind]

https://bnnbreaking.com/politics/pc-george-eyes-bjp-membership-citing-partys-focus-on-progress-and-welfare/

"PC George Eyes BJP Membership, Citing Party’s Focus on Progress and Welfare"

Old Kerala KEC veteran whose KEC splinter KJ(S) has been allied with the BJP it seems will merge into BJP.

PC George was part of the dominant KEC faction KEC(M) in the 1970s  then PC George was associated with KEC(J) in the 1980-2006 period when KEC(J) split from KEC(M) in 1980 to stay in UDF while KEC(M) went over to LDF.  KEC(M) came back to UDF in 1982 but the KEC(M) and KEC(J) split remained.  KEC(J) itself was with UDF for most of that period but went over to LDF in 2001.  PC George split from KEC(J) in 2006 and created KEC(S) but still stayed in LDF.   But in 2011 he merged KEC(S) with KEC(J) ancient rival KEC(M) and joined KEC(M) which was a part of UDF.  In 2016 he split from KEC(M) and created KJ(S) and ran separately from UDF and LDF.  He was elected in 2016 but became more aligned with NDA but in the 2021 assembly elections, he failed to ally with NDA and was defeated.  It seems now he will merge his one-man KJ(S) party with BJP