India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

Still no news from INC on who will contest from Rae Bareli and Amethi.  The later this drags out the worse it looks for them.  If Rahul Gandhi runs away from Amethi then it will drag down the entire INDIA effort in the Hindu heartland.  One variation I heard is Rahul Gandhi contest in Rae Bareli and Priyanka Gandhi contest in Amethi (turning Amethi into a women vs woman fight.)  That still seems less than idea but at least shows the Gandhi clan is willing to take risks and lead from the front.

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/lok-sabha-polls-2024-election-commission-final-voter-turnout-numbers-opposition-13766254.html

"Did the Election Commission delay voter turnout data of the first 2 phases?"

The turnout figures from the first two phases keeps on changing and took over 10 days to stabilize.  And even then the breakdown area not released.  This is a great shift from the norm in the past when all data were locked down and released in 1-2 days.

I think this is a re-run of the 2020 Iowa Dem primary.  ECI adding all these "apps" and "automation" created more problems with poor software and dealing with scale  and created a result that is much worse than a world when everything was done manually.

[jaichind]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

[OSR stands with Israel]

this was funny:

https://twitter.com/CitizenAnkit/status/1785724550832955496

[jaichind]

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/lok-sabha-elections-2024-phalodi-satta-bazar-bets-on-nda-getting-less-than-two-thirds-majority/3474502/

"Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Phalodi satta bazar bets on NDA getting less than two-thirds majority"

Current betting markets

BJP   300-303 -> I currently have them at 305
NDA  340-350 -> I currently have them at 353
INC    50-51    -> I currently have them at 64

I guess the betting markets have NDA beating out INDIA than what I expected but not gaining ground against parties like BJD YSRCP and AITC as much as I would think.  Overall these results seem pretty consistent with betting markets right after phase 2 voting took place

[eos]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

I can’t find an official announcement anywhere. Are you sure they announced it?

[jaichind]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

I can’t find an official announcement anywhere. Are you sure they announced it?

You are right.  It seems that the announcement I thought I read is not legit.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha/story/lok-sabha-polls-rahul-gandhi-likely-to-contest-from-raebareli-priyanka-gandhi-from-amethi-say-sources-2534644-2024-05-03

"Rahul Gandhi may contest from Raebareli, Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi: Sources"

This says it will be Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli and Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi.  Suboptimal.

I think Rahul Gandhi wants to win both Amethi and  Rae Bareli but does not want his sister in Parliment and it seems he cannot fufil both goals at the same time. 

[eos]

This is very suboptimal.  He will most likely win, of course, but will be viewed as running from a fight.  I wonder who will run from Amethi.

I can’t find an official announcement anywhere. Are you sure they announced it?

You are right.  It seems that the announcement I thought I read is not legit.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha/story/lok-sabha-polls-rahul-gandhi-likely-to-contest-from-raebareli-priyanka-gandhi-from-amethi-say-sources-2534644-2024-05-03

"Rahul Gandhi may contest from Raebareli, Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi: Sources"

This says it will be Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli and Priyanka Gandhi from Amethi.  Suboptimal.

I think Rahul Gandhi wants to win both Amethi and  Rae Bareli but does not want his sister in Parliment and it seems he cannot fufil both goals at the same time. 

They have just announced it, RG will contest from Rae Bareli and family loyalist and political agent K.L. Sharma in Amethi. Bad decision. RG needs his sister contesting in Amethi to drown out the media narrative of ducking a fight.

[eos]

The only silver lining is that if RG wins in Rae Bareli ( he will), he can leave Wayanad for PG in a by-election so that CPI(M) can’t attack the INC for “abandoning” Kerela.

[jaichind]

The only silver lining is that if RG wins in Rae Bareli ( he will), he can leave Wayanad for PG in a by-election so that CPI(M) can’t attack the INC for “abandoning” Kerela.

The other way is for Priyanka Gandhi to contest Rae Bareli in a by-election and for Rahul Gandhi to stay in Wayanad.  Of course there is always the theory that Rahul Gandhi want to keep Priyanka Gandhi out of Parliment.

[jaichind]

They have just announced it, RG will contest from Rae Bareli and family loyalist and political agent K.L. Sharma in Amethi. Bad decision. RG needs his sister contesting in Amethi to drown out the media narrative of ducking a fight.

I agree.  The argument for K.L. Sharma is that he has deep roots in Amethi while Rahul Gandhi failed to nurture Amethi since losing it in 2019.  This move also frees up Priyanka Gandhi to campaign nationwide.  These tactical advantages do not take away from the narrative loss of running away from a fight.