Streaks

[Calthrina950]

Missouri voted for the winner in every election from 1904 through 2004, except one (1956, in which it missed by 0.22%).

The second longest all-but-one streak I could find was Tennessee, which voted for the winner in every election from 1928 through 2004, except one (1960).

Both streaks were broken in 2008, and today, neither is anything like a bellwether state.

Delaware, Missouri, and North Carolina are the only states to have voted with the winner every year from 1960-1988 (8 elections).

Minnesota has not gone Republican since 1972, the longest such streak.

Arizona has not given a majority of its vote to the Democrat since 1948, the longest such streak. The second longest is Mississippi, which has not given the Democrat a majority since 1956.

No state (or EV district) voted with the winner in all of 2004, 2012, 2016, and 2020; every state missed at least one of these.

Ohio of course, voted for the winner of every presidential election from 1964-2016, a streak which was broken this year. Biden, from what I read elsewhere, has the dubious distinction of being the first Democrat to win a presidential election without carrying any of Missouri, Ohio, or Florida. And this statistic you note about Arizona is interesting. The state ended up being terrifyingly close this year; I had expected Biden to win it by about 2-4% before Election Day.

[Calthrina950]

Missouri voted for the winner in every election from 1904 through 2004, except one (1956, in which it missed by 0.22%).

The second longest all-but-one streak I could find was Tennessee, which voted for the winner in every election from 1928 through 2004, except one (1960).

Both streaks were broken in 2008, and today, neither is anything like a bellwether state.

Delaware, Missouri, and North Carolina are the only states to have voted with the winner every year from 1960-1988 (8 elections).

Minnesota has not gone Republican since 1972, the longest such streak.

Arizona has not given a majority of its vote to the Democrat since 1948, the longest such streak. The second longest is Mississippi, which has not given the Democrat a majority since 1956.

No state (or EV district) voted with the winner in all of 2004, 2012, 2016, and 2020; every state missed at least one of these.

Ohio of course, voted for the winner of every presidential election from 1964-2016, a streak which was broken this year. Biden, from what I read elsewhere, has the dubious distinction of being the first Democrat to win a presidential election without carrying any of Missouri, Ohio, or Florida. And this statistic you note about Arizona is interesting. The state ended up being terrifyingly close this year; I had expected Biden to win it by about 2-4% before Election Day.

Prior to 2020, every winning Democrat (going back to their admission to the Union) carried at least two of FL, MO, OH, TX. Biden didn't win any.

(That was the Democrats' answer to Bush Jr., who in 2000 became the first Republican to win without IL or VT; all prior GOP winners had carried both).

No state except AZ voted the same in 1964, 1972, 1976, and 1980. By comparison, numerous states voted with the winner in all 4 of these elections: NY, PA, DE, NC, FL, OH, KY, TN, WI, MO, AR, TX.

In stark contrast, no state voted with the winner in all four of 2004, 2012, 2016, 2020. But a majority of the states (with a clear majority of EVs) voted the same in all 4 of these elections.

As for counties, if we count voting for Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 as voting Republican, numerous counties (including all 3 Goldwater counties in MI) have Republican streaks dating to the 19th century. If we exclude 1964, I wonder if a plurality of counties outside the Deep South have voted GOP every time except 1912 and 1964-- that is, is that the single most common pattern? I think it might be.

Certainly not in 1932 or 1936-you forget that Roosevelt swept the vast majority of counties in the Upper South and West, and that he won a majority of counties in the Midwest. However, a majority of counties in the Northeast went for Hoover in 1932; I'm not sure about 1936 there. The Northeast, as I noted elsewhere a few days ago, was the only region of the country that displayed significant resistance to Roosevelt's landslide against Hoover, and which swung the least. Massachusetts, for example, voted virtually the same as it had in 1928, and so did most of Upstate New York.