The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/julian-castro-says-hes-likely-to-challenge-trump-in-2020
Seems to me that Julian is in...I don't know what to think about this.

I actually think that Castro will do better then people expect. He'll probably be the only Hispanic at the big debate. (sorry but Virgin Garcetti is going to be on the edge of the undercard debate) No way he's the nominee though. I figure he bets big on Nevada but drops out afterwards.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/michael-avenatti-says-2020-democratic-nominee-better-be-a-white-male/

*loosens collar*

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Gillibrand asked about 2020 ambitions in her Senate debate says "I will serve my six year term":

https://freebeacon.com/politics/gillibrand-pushes-2020-speculation-serve-six-year-term-senate/

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Technically that's true, she's just going to make a failed presidential run at the beginning of her term

I'm inclined to agree due to Gillibrand's big sprint left these past 2 years, but she really has been pretty direct with her denials. Also doesn't seem to be nearly as active in early primary states as some of the other guys. What's going on here?

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Sherrod Brown:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/sherrod-brown-no-real-interest-in-running-against-trump.html

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Funny story, recently I went to an event with Brown and when Brown answered some questions somebody said "Sherrod, make sure you stay away from 2020!" I've come to terms with the fact he's not gonna run, so I agree with that guy. HE'S OURS.

If he did run, his constituency would be completely eaten up by Sanders and/or Warren, plus Tim Ryan is definitely running and he's not gonna mess with that. I believe him.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Brown's presidential campaign ended the moment the race was called for Mike DeWine, with the way the Senate it loosing right now any Dem Sen/GOP Gov is a no go.

Even Warren?

Or Bernie??

Non 0 chance that Bernie's theoretical coattails pull Scott down in 2020, but he would have to resign pretty late though.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Swalwell will run.

Unless the "source" is Salwell himself, I won't believe it.

Swalwell has basically been the Representative from IA-AL this past year, and I'm willing to bet that the "close source" is a plant from his staff to get his name out there. He's running.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

High chance Gabbard runs

https://www.tribuneindia.com/mobi/news/world/tulsi-gabbard-planning-to-run-for-us-presidency-in-2020-sources/681953.html

Ironic that Bernie's two highest profile Congressional endorsements (Merkley and Gabbard) are probably going to run against him.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

High chance Gabbard runs

https://www.tribuneindia.com/mobi/news/world/tulsi-gabbard-planning-to-run-for-us-presidency-in-2020-sources/681953.html

Ironic that Bernie's two highest profile Congressional endorsements (Merkley and Gabbard) are probably going to run against him.

"Ironic" or just a reflection of the not-so-unreasonable expectation that they might be more up to running a presidential campaign than someone who was born before sizable portions of the coterminous 48 had electricity?

Man thanks for being the 843rd person to remind me today that MUH BERNIE OLD.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Sherrod has put a 2020 thoughts site up on his landing page:
https://www.sherrodbrown.com/landing/w181121/

If anybody needed anymore confirmation that Sherrod Brown really is a straight forward and honest guy, here ya go.

In the end I figure he won't go for it, but he's not gonna play the stereotypical politician and deny he's thinking about it.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Sherrod has put a 2020 thoughts site up on his landing page:
https://www.sherrodbrown.com/landing/w181121/

If anybody needed anymore confirmation that Sherrod Brown really is a straight forward and honest guy, here ya go.

In the end I figure he won't go for it, but he's not gonna play the stereotypical politician and deny he's thinking about it.

I mean, now that the midterms are behind us, aren't they all pretty honest about how they are thinking about it? Harris, Gillibrand, Booker, Warren and co all admitted that they are thinking about a presidential run.

But Sherrod Brown is Populist , which means he is inherently more honest.

This but un-unironically.

I don't think Warren/Gillibrand/Booker have been as open as Brown has though, despite him clearly having less of an interest. Last I checked wasn't Warren was a "it's too early to talk about it!"?

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Sherrod has put a 2020 thoughts site up on his landing page:
https://www.sherrodbrown.com/landing/w181121/

If anybody needed anymore confirmation that Sherrod Brown really is a straight forward and honest guy, here ya go.

In the end I figure he won't go for it, but he's not gonna play the stereotypical politician and deny he's thinking about it.

He literally waited until one day after he's reelected. Do you really think the thought of running for President just appeared in his head right then? No, he's a politician too, and he was thinking about it long before the midterms but didn't want to hurt his reelection chances (which was smart). This is just him building his brand.

I'm just saying is that he is being much more open about it right now then other candidates who are obviously way more interested in running then Brown is.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/11/25/john-kasich-2020/2108618002/

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This might be me speculating, but could Kasich have already made up his mind to run, and he's just being coy here?

Kasich literally said he was not being coy in the interview lol.

But maybe...

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Deval  Patrick a NO?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/1070291118200360960?s=21

Not surprising, he was very non committal earlier on. There will be more of these as the months roll on; candidates Atlas was certain would run because they were speculated too and because MUH GIANT FIELD ending up not running.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Lol at this CNBC article mentioning how ❤❤Brown❤❤ is considering a run but not the guy who's basically already been running for a year. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/sherrod-brown-jeff-merkley-want-to-block-lawmakers-from-buying-selling-stock.html

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

This is moving a lot slower than any of us expected. Maybe the field won't be as large as intially thought? Probably closer to 15 than 20

I just think a lot of candidates are just realizing that announcing now isn't really that much of a leg up compared to announcing in the spring, and if a major candidate announced now, all that would happen is all the major candidates announce now. Nobody wants to add a few months to the process to get no real advantage from it.

The field was never gonna be this two-dozen+ s*itfest where every member of congress and their mom runs that everybody thought it was gonna be though. Still probably approaching 20 though.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Pete Buttigieg is teasing an announcement through his dog’s twitter account

https://twitter.com/firstdogtruman/status/1070701670475161600?s=21

https://twitter.com/firstdogtruman/status/1070810636924407808?s=21
Wonder what this could be? Just a gag? Doesn’t seem like Pete (or anyone) would announce he’s running without organizing some kind of a rally... Re-election for mayor? Announcement of an announcement speech?

I'm trying to imagine a world where a presidential candidate's staff advised that the candidate's dog's Twitter should be used to hype up the announcement, but I just can't.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

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So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

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So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

(I messed up the formatting, this is what I said)
Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

A poll in December 2018 for primaries that won't start till January 2020? Yeah, I'll pass on buying those. And Beto made waves for himself in the Senate race, doesn't translate to him beating every one else easily in 2020.

That is not what we are talking about! You wanted a citation on there being more energy diehard supporters around Beto O'Rourke compared to Booker/Harris/Gillibrand. The fact that a failed Senate candidate is polling higher then the three people in question, despite them being constantly in the news the past 2 years, shows that not a whole lot of people get energized about them.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, Beto is obviously running.

Yes, because this is his chance. He may never get a better chance than now.

The interesting part about Beto is that people are actually asking him to run rather than him announcing. Its clear that Harris Gillibrand and Booker have always marked interest. They have a base of supporters but those supporters aren't die hard and don't care that much. The enthusiastic support he gets should help in Iowa.
Btw does anyone have Beto's numbers on African Americans in Texas?

Citation needed.

Even if you are a huge fan of any of them, it's not debatable that nobody gets excited for Booker, Harris, or Gillibrand nearly as much as O'Rourke.

Okay. Citation needed since you didn't give me one. Nobody is a strong word.

Obviously I'm using hyperbole, but fine I'll take the bait. How about the fact that in the Harvard-Harris poll O'Rourke is polling 3/4, only behind people with way more name recognition, despite getting well known on the political scene only a couple months ago?

A poll in December 2018 for primaries that won't start till January 2020? Yeah, I'll pass on buying those. And Beto made waves for himself in the Senate race, doesn't translate to him beating every one else easily in 2020.

That is not what we are talking about! You wanted a citation on there being more energy diehard supporters around Beto O'Rourke compared to Booker/Harris/Gillibrand. The fact that a failed Senate candidate is polling higher then the three people in question, despite them being constantly in the news the past 2 years, shows that not a whole lot of people get energized about them.

I just answered you. I wanted a citation that Kamala doesn't have diehard supporters, and you gave me ONE poll. Not really saying much and doesn't disprove that Kamala has diehard supporters. But judging from your giant and unsightly sig I'm sure you'll dismiss that and go on about how Beto is destined to win.

Obnoxious sig aside, Mohammed (and me too) were obviously using hyperbole. Obviously Harris, Gillibrand, and Booker have die-hard supporters, but the point is that it's hard to argue that any of them have more die-hard support then Beto, due to the cult of personality already around him. Gilly/Harris/Booker just don't have that. I figured you weren't taking SM literally. But I'm gonna shut up about this now because we're derailing the thread.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

I'm actually curious, aside from Sanders, is O'Rourke the only candidate on record for carbon pricing? I know Gillibrand supports Cap and Trade but **politically** the two do not mean the same thing.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

A lot of people who we thought were clear candidates are now not running (O'Malley, Cuomo, Patrick, Avenatti, but he was obviously under exceptional circumstances). Who else falls into the "has no shot and has been lying low recently" category?

- Eric Holder
- Eric Swalwell
- Tim Ryan, I think because Brown is exploring a run
- Eric Garcetti

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSThisMorning/status/1083321748777590784

I liked these parts:

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As in, Harris would be one of the most liberal candidates, yet their campaign wouldn't like being associated with liberal places?

This is peak consultant right here. Harris is going to be called a "San Francisco liberal" a thousand times, no matter where she announces her campaign from. They really think that announcing on a stage in Iowa or something is going to give her more votes then announcing on a stage in Oakland? Probably the only way it could hurt her even a bit is if she did it in open air with like the SF skyline and/or GG bridge in the background.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

IT'S HAPPENING https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/11/sherrod-brown-2020-iowa-1090314&ved=2ahUKEwix_tqdzevfAhUhooMKHZdEDCsQqOcBMAB6BAgHEAQ&usg=AOvVaw3E6ylshhiHqkJNXTciNMM2

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Do you think this is real?

Do you mean that Brown worked out a deal with somebody that he'd be their VP? Obviously it's possible but there's no way of knowing.