What is your opinion on Allan Lichtman's methodology?

[pbrower2a]

It makes sense.

There is at least one little tweak that I would make: that if there is a third-party or independent nominee seeming to get support from the incumbent's side of the political spectrum, then the incumbent's party has a problem.

[pbrower2a]

It obviously does not work in the situation in which someone wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college vote.

Here's one problem: it holds few surprises. Noting is counterintuitive. An example of a counterintuitive predictor was shown by the baseball analyst Bill James, who surprised people by telling that baseball teams with the higher team batting average fare worse in post-season play. How could that be?

The teams with the higher team batting average hit more singles and doubles. Scoring three runs by putting five singles together against teams with bad pitching staffs that never reach post-season play. The teams in post-season play have pitchers who don't allow that many singles in an inning. Fewer runs score in postseason baseball games, as a rule, because the pitching is better. Those teams also have better defenses, which means that the pitcher is more likely to get a double play following a single -- and teams that hit lots of singles also ground into lots of double plays against good defensive teams.  Add to this, a higher team batting average often indicates teams that play in ballparks that favor hitters over pitchers (like Fenway Park as opposed to Dodger Stadium). Doubles? Good defensive teams have mobile first basemen  and third basemen who cut off more ground balls down the lines and turn those into outs. 


All offense weakens in postseason play, but the teams that make the playoffs that rely upon pitching, defense, and home runs fare better.

At least Lichtman's test isn't as silly as predicting that Republicans win after an American League victory in the World Series. (You know that one - the 1984 Detroit Tigers made the San Diego Padres look really awful, and Ronald Reagan made Walter Mondale look really awful in the Presidential election). If there is no logical connection, then all that one has is coincidence.