The Rubio Wave: The 2018 midterms and beyond

[Lord Admirale]

Background
At the start of 2018 Democrats led the generic ballot by 10 points, most polls had Rubios approval above 100%, and Democrats felt pretty confident that they would flip Congress in the upcoming midterms. However, as primary season began it began clear it was going to be extremely competitive, by the summer the Democrats generic ballot lead had shrunk to 5 points, and on the back of a booming economy and the passage of a bipartisan Infrastructure package in the spring, Rubios approval has risen into the high 200s on average causing Democrats massive concern (though party leadership tried their best to conceal this publicly). Then at the worst possible time, on September 27th Robert Mueller announced the conclusion of the special counsel investigation, with no charges against Jeb along with no evidence of Collusion between the Rubio campaign and the Russian government. This proved devastating for Democrats, as immediately Fox News and other Right-wing media outlets accused Democrats of wasting over a year and millions of taxpayer money on what they described as a "Biased and fraudulent investigation that found absolutely Nothing". The day after the investigation ended Rubio pardoned Micheal Flynn (who was convicted in Federal court of Perjury a month earlier and was awaiting sentencing), Democrats were immediately furious and accused the president of bailing out his criminal associate, however polling conducted over the next few days showed over 50% of voters supported Rubios decision to pardon Flynn and agreed that the Russia investigation was a waste of time and money. Meanwhile on October 15th the Dow jones hit 30,000 due to massive growth (the first three quarters grew 3.5%, 3.2%, and 3.8% respectively) which only strengthened the approval bounce Trump recieved due to the positive conclusion of the Mueller probe. Due to these developments by the Day before the midterms, Trumps Approval was averaging in the low 50s and the Democrats generic ballot lead had fallen to nothing (the RCP average showed Democrats and Republicans tied at 45%). Even more disturbing for Democrats the last polls showed Democratic incumbents trailing in 5 senate races (WV, ND, MT, IN, and MO) tied in two (FL and OH) and barely leading in three (PA, MI, and WI) while Republican incumbents were ahead comfortably in 6 senate races (TX, TN, MS, NE, UT, and WY) leading slightly in one (AZ) and tied in one (NV). This set the stage for one of the most crucial Midterms in American history, would Republicans defy history and post massive gains (as the polls suggest) or would Democrats shock the nation and post come from behind victories and preserve the trend of Midterms hurting the incumbent party?

[Lord Admirale]

CNN 2018 election coverage Part 1:
Wolf Blitzer: Good evening America, and welcome to our 2018 election coverage. It is 7 pm on the east coast and polls have just closed in Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, South Cariolina, Virginia, and Vermont and we can now make our first projections.
OFFICIAL CNN PROJECTIONS
Vermont
Senator
Winner
Bernie Sanders
Indiana
Senator
Winner
Luke Messer
Wolf Blitzer: The Senate race in Virginia is still to close to call, However we can also project that all house seats in these states have been held by the incumbent party with the exception of the seat of Barbra Comstock who’s race is still to close to call.
John King: we called The Indiana race quicker then expected because with 50% of the vote in and incumbent senator Joe Donnelly still down 10 points, and the remaining half of the vote concentrated in republican rural areas, we can reasonably conclude he has no path to reelection. Obviously no surprise in the Vermont Senate Race.
Indiana Senate Race Results (50% in)
Joe Donnelly: 44%
Luke Messer: 54%
Vermont Senate Race Results:
Bernie Sanders: 72%
John MacGovern: 27%
Virginia Senate Race Results (10% in):
Tim Kaine: 45%
Corey Stewart: 54%
Virginia 10th Congressional district results: (20% in)
Barbra Comstock: 52%
Jennifer Wexton: 47%
John King: For those at home Virginia has a Republican counting bias, as many can remember from 2016, Rubio started with a double-digit lead but quickly fell behind as Northern Virginia came in and ultimately won the state by 30 points, considering that Stewart is only up by 9 points with no results in from Nothern Virginia, this indicates Kaine is still in a comfortable position for reelection.
Wolf Blitzer: thanks for the analysis King, we will be keeping an eye on that closely. In the meantime we’re heading for commercial break and we’ll be back when the next polls close at 7:30.
Current House makeup:
Republicans: 35
Democrats: 12
Current Senate makeup:
Republicans: 44
Democrats: 24

[Lord Admirale]

CNN 2018 election coverage Part 2:
Wolf Blitzer: Welcome Back to our 2018 election coverage, polls have now closed in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina, and we can now make the following Projection.
OFFICIAL CNN PROJECTION
West Virginia
Senator
Winner
Evan Jenkins
Wolf Blitzer: In a Devastating blow to the Democratic Party, West Virginia Democratic senator Joe Manchin has lost reelection, ending over a century of Democratic representation in the Appalachian state. We can also project all house seats in these states have been held by the incumbent party. The Ohio Senate Race is still to close to call.
John King: The polls only had Manchin Down by 5 points but it appears he has lost by much more then that, with 25% in he’s trailing by 15 points and is losing in every part of the state including the historically democratic, Union-heavy, south.
Anderson Cooper: These Senate results seem terrible for Democrats, at this rate it appears their in for a bad night.
2018 West Virginia Senate Race Results (25% in)
Joe Manchin: 42%
Evan Jenkins: 57%
2018 Ohio Senate Race Results (15% in)
Sherrod Brown: 48%
Josh Mendel: 49%
2018 Virginia Senate Race Results (40% in)
Tim Kaine: 50%
Corey Stewart: 49%
John King: One of the few bright spots for Democrats, As I predicted, with 40% of the vote already in Tim Kaine has already taken a small lead over Corey Stewart as the overwhelmingly Democratic Northern Virginia begins to trickle in.
Wolf Blitzer: Meanwhile, in another tight race in Virginia we can now project that Barbra Comstock has lost reelection to Democratic state senator Jennifer Wexton, this is the first house race to change hands tonight.
OFFICIAL CNN PROJECTION
Virginia 10th
Congressional
district
Winner
Jennifer Wexton
John King: with 50% of the vote counted in Virginia’s 10th Congressional district, Comstock is now trailing by 5 points with all the remaining precincts in heavily Democratic Loundon county, meaning she has no pathway to reelection. Democrats better hope this is the first of many House pickups considering what’s going on in the senate races.
Wolf Blitzer: Thanks for the update, we’re now going to take a quick break until the next wave of poll closing at 8 pm.
Current House Makeup:
Republicans: 60
Democrats: 20
Current Senate Makeup:
Republicans: 45
Democrats: 24

[Lord Admirale]

CNN 2018 Election coverage Part 3:
Wolf Blitzer: Its 8 pm on the east coast and we have a ton of major projections.
OFFICIAL CNN PROJECTIONS
Massachusetts
Senator
Winner
Elizabeth Warren
Rhode
Island
Senator
Winner
Sheldon Whitehouse
Connecticut
Senator
Winner
Chris Murphy
New Jersey
Senator
Winner
Bob Menendez
Delaware
Senator
Winner
Tom Carper
Maryland
Senator
Winner
Ben Cardin

Mississippi
Senator
Winner
Roger Wicker
Tennessee
Senator
Winner
Marsha Blackburn
Missouri
Senator
Winner
Josh Hadley

Wolf Blitzer: We can also project that all house seats have been held by the incumbent party in these states with with the exception of seats in PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, NJ-07, IL-06, NH-02, and IL-17 are still to close to call while we can project Republicans have flipped the Democratic seat in PA-17, and that Democrats have flipped two Republican districts in Florida, FL-26 and FL-27. Meanwhile the Senate Races in Maine, Pennsylvania, and Florida are still to close to call.
John King: As everyone has know since the primary’s ended Claire Mccaskill was destined to lose, However like Manchin the margin is much bigger then expected. With 30% of the vote in she’s losing by 20 points, we do expect that margin to shrink as urban areas come in, unfortunately for her it will not be enough to save her reelection.
Missouri Senate Race Results (30% in):
Clarie Mccaskill: 39%
Josh Hadley: 59%
Maine Senate Race Results (10% in):
Angus King: 45%
Paul Lepage: 40%
Zac Ringlestien: 15%
Ohio Senate Race Results (50% in):
Sherrod Brown: 47%
Josh Mendel: 52%
Pennsylvania Senate Race Results (20% in):
Bob Casey: 53%
Lou Barlette: 45%
Florida Senate Race Results (45% in):
Bill Nelson: 49%
Rick Scott: 50%
Wolf Blitzer: Thanks King for the updates, will now take a quick break until the next poll closings at 8:30 PM.
Current House Makeup:
Republicans: 130
Democrats: 87
Current Senate Makeup:
Republicans: 48
Democrats: 30

[Lord Admirale]

CNN 2018 Election coverage Part 4:
Wolf Blitzer: its 8:30 PM and we can now project that all Republican house incumbents in Arkansas have won reelection, and that Republicans have held house seats in PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, NJ-07, and IL-06, while Democrats have held IL-17, Meanwhile Republicans have flipped NH-02 which was vacated by Democratic congresswomen Carol-Shea porter. We also have some critical Sanate projections.
OFFICIAL CNN PROJECTIONS
Ohio
Senator
Winner
Josh Mendel
Florida
Senator
Winner
Rick Scott
Virginia
Senator
Winner
Tim Kaine
Wolf Blitzer: We can now project republicans have won two critical senate races in Ohio and Florida, defeating Incumbent Democratic Senators Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson, they have now gained 5 senate seats tonight and with these most recent gains have now reached the 50 seat threshold to officially maintain control of the US senate. The senate race in Pennsylvania is still to close to call. On the bright side for Democrats, it's now clear Tim Kaine has won reelection in Virginia.
John King: With 65% of the vote counted in Florida and 75% of the vote counted in Ohio its clear theirs no way for Senators Brown and Nelson to overcome their deficits because all the urban vote has already come in and all that's left are rural precincts. On the other hand Tim Kaine has been saved by the reliably democratic DC suburbs.
Anderson Cooper: Its amazing how much the political environment has changed in the last couple months, At the start of the year we were talking about a Blue Wave, but today as the results are coming in it looks like a Red Wave.
John King: I think a lot of it has to do with the Mueller probe backfiring on the Democrats, combined with the Booming Economy.
Wolf Blitzer: Thanks for the analysis King, we'll be right back in a moment.
Florida Senate Race Results (65% in):
Bill Nelson: 47%
Rick Scott: 52%
Ohio Senate Race Results (75% in):
Sherrod Brown: 45%
Josh Mendel: 53%
Virginia Senate Race Results (80% in):
Tim Kaine: 52%
Corey Stewart: 47%
Pennsylvania Senate Race Results (40% in)
Bob Casey: 51%
Lou Barlette: 46%
Current House makeup:
Republicans: 140
Democrats: 87
Current Senate makeup:
Republicans: 50
Democrats: 31