$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[KingSweden]

Murkowski’s office says she will vote Yes.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/935954365113864192

McCain says “Stay tuned”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/seungminkim/status/935959434681085952

Collins is a Yes on the MTP, but still concerned over individual mandate.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/935955798395670528

That ANWR provision might not meet Byrd rule provisions, just fyi. Lotta moving parts.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving Murkowski to Safe Support, and based on reporting by Politico, moving Moran there as well.

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed:
Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. The guy is generally a backbencher and is thus probably not completely out of reach for McConnell, but it appears his opposition is serious.

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Lean Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Kennedy - Has threatened to vote against the bill if McConnell decides to include a Trigger provision, which McConnell may do to please Lankford and Corker.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 43 GOP Senators


Overall: 50 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 2 TOSS-UP

[The Other Castro]

Flake and Johnson will both vote Yes on the MTP.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryangrim/status/935967633203236864
https://www.axios.com/sen-ron-johnson-to-vote-yes-on-procedural-tax-vote-2513585275.html

[junior chįmp]

Republicans are suck a pathetic bunch

[Hindsight was 2020]

There is something really cynical about how Trump is holding this rally and blantly lie to these peoples faces about how he will not benefit from this bill and helping the middle class is its backbone

[BudgieForce]

There is something really cynical about how Trump is holding this rally and blantly lie to these peoples faces about how he will not benefit from this bill and helping the middle class is its backbone

To be fair, he probably knows as much about the bill as they do.

[Yank2133]

There is something really cynical about how Trump is holding this rally and blantly lie to these peoples faces about how he will not benefit from this bill and helping the middle class is its backbone

I have no sympathy for them.

You have to be one dumb **** to still buy the nonsense the GOP spouts when it comes to tax cuts.

[Dr. Arch]

Republicans are suck a pathetic bunch

I love how Trump pwned Flake and Corker and exposed them as his b!tches tho. Maybe now stupid Democrats will stop praising them for doing the obvious and calling an idiot an idiot?

Holy sh**t

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I give up.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Per C-SPAN 2, Motion to Proceed will be voted on this Evening. Not sure of exact timing.

[IceSpear]

Republicans are suck a pathetic bunch

I love how Trump pwned Flake and Corker and exposed them as his b!tches tho. Maybe now stupid Democrats will stop praising them for doing the obvious and calling an idiot an idiot?

LOL

[The Other Castro]

Per C-SPAN 2, Motion to Proceed will be voted on this Evening. Not sure of exact timing.

This will almost certainly pass, barring any major surprises.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The GOP deserves to die.

[Matty]

Nyt study: green dots represent families who will see net gain in income

[Brittain33]

Why did you only choose one of the charts to share? The other charts contain all the people who are going to pay more because they don't take only the standard deduction.

Nyt study: green dots represent families who will see net gain in income

[Matty]

70% of families take standard deduction, including upwards of 85% of middle class families

[Tintrlvr]

Why did you only choose one of the charts to share? The other charts contain all the people who are going to pay more because they don't take only the standard deduction.

Nyt study: green dots represent families who will see net gain in income

I'm curious who the people are on the left of this chart - people with tons of kids, I think, but hard to be certain. It's a bit surprising Mormons aren't more opposed...

Either way, "If you exclude all of the people who are hurt, everyone is helped!" is a ridiculous way to spin things.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do not let Marty confuse you: When the Senate votes to bring this bill to debate today, they are voting for a plan that is primarily for the rich and powerful, that will raise the deficit by $1.4 Trillion, and that will kill 13 million people via repealing the individual mandate.

[IceSpear]

Do not let Marty confuse you: When the Senate votes to bring this bill to debate today, they are voting for a plan that is primarily for the rich and powerful, that will raise the deficit by $1.4 Trillion, and that will kill 13 million people via repealing the individual mandate.

I don't think all those 13 million people are going to die.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do not let Marty confuse you: When the Senate votes to bring this bill to debate today, they are voting for a plan that is primarily for the rich and powerful, that will raise the deficit by $1.4 Trillion, and that will kill 13 million people via repealing the individual mandate.

I don't think all those 13 million people are going to die.

You're not helping. You're a Dem Hack, start acting like one.

[junior chįmp]

Do not let Marty confuse you: When the Senate votes to bring this bill to debate today, they are voting for a plan that is primarily for the rich and powerful, that will raise the deficit by $1.4 Trillion, and that will kill 13 million people via repealing the individual mandate.

I'm sure Marty knows but he's trying to spin this and fool himself that it isn't so

[Matty]

I'm being factual

I dislike the deficit side of the bill but to claim it raises taxes on the middle class is insanity

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm being factual

I dislike the deficit side of the bill but to claim it raises taxes on the middle class is insanity

The cut for the middle class is much smaller than the cut for the rich, and the Poor may actually see a tax increase.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MOTION TO PROCEED IN PROGRESS

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I'm being factual

I dislike the deficit side of the bill but to claim it raises taxes on the middle class is insanity

It raises taxes on those making less than 250k in under 10% of cases in the year following passage of the bill, then raises taxes on something like half of those under 250k in the mid-2020s, assuming certain individual side changes aren't extended