PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Spectator]

Anyone else annoyed by the barrage of anti-Mastriano ads on youtube? I don't watch anything political but every other ad is a anti-Mastriano ad and it is starting to get very annoying.

I mean, an annoying ad or Pennsylvania becoming a dumpster fire if Mastriano wins. I think I'll take the ads.

Fair enough, but it is annoying to see the same ad ad-nauseum and I hope the Shapiro campaign will diversify their ads so they won't get stale and start to annoy people.

Considering how inundated I was with Ciatarelli ads last year, I'd be more than happy to take a barrage of Democratic ads ad nauseum to make up for that.

Yeah I understand you.

I get the same really annoying ad on Hulu every other commercial from some random PAC where an old lady is complaining “I’m trying to save $2, and Senator Warnock votes to spend $2 trillion?” And then another guy saying “$140 to fill my truck (I drive a Chevy Silverado and the most I’ve had to pay to fill up in Georgia was around $110. It’s about $70 now), and Senator Warnock votes to spend $140 million on a resort in Florida?” Then all tell Warnock to stop spending. Super annoying ad that has done absolutely nothing to change my mind.

[Spectator]

This race is exhibit A for how to lose a race you should otherwise be heavily favored to win and  should go down in polisci textbooks as an example.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Oz will win the Senate race though.

[Spectator]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

Senate has 25 Biden seats to 25 Trump seats (and Shapiro only won 24 in his 2016 election). It's not impossible for Dems to pick off a few Trump seats, but I don't know if it's particularly likely.

I would check out cnalysis' Chamber Summary: https://cnalysis.com/articles/chamber-summary-pennsylvania-senate/

Really? Shapiro lost a district Biden won despite doing a bit better statewide? Kind of like MI-10 being a weird Trump-Peters district.

[Spectator]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

I think Berks, Cumberland, and Lucerne are good bets. Beaver I’m not too sure about.

[Spectator]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

I think Berks, Cumberland, and Lucerne are good bets. Beaver I’m not too sure about.

I'd only put money on Berks personally. Cumberland and Luzerne are of course moving in opposite directions but I think Cumberland is still a bit out of reach barring a complete curb-stomp (highly unlikely for an open-seat election in Penna in This Of All Eras) and Luzerne will fall short. Beaver has been on borrowed time for all but very popular old-school incumbent Dems for ages now (Kerry-McCain!) and collapsed downballot in 2020.

Saying that Shapiro could win Lancaster is pure trendz-bro people-are-merely-statistics cope.

I don’t think Shapiro has a shot at Lancaster, but could keep it in single digits which would be impressive. If Shapiro wins statewide by double digits, I think he’ll keep Cumberland County blue since I don’t imagine he’ll do anywhere near as good as Wolf in rural areas. I think suburban areas are where we’ll see him match or exceed Wolf 2018.

[Spectator]

And…it looks like with mail ballots that Shapiro has flipped Beaver County to his column. An exact replica of the 2018 gubernatorial map. Who woulda thunk!?

[Spectator]

Does the appointed AG need to be approved by the state senate?