PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

Given polarization, I'm thinking Shapiro by about 4 seems most likely. It's unfortunate but remember Biden only won PA by a point against Trump in 2020, who isn't Mastriano levels of crazy but getting close.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

Given polarization, I'm thinking Shapiro by about 4 seems most likely. It's unfortunate but remember Biden only won PA by a point against Trump in 2020, who isn't Mastriano levels of crazy but getting close.

Trump had an actual campaign infrastructure though. Also Shapiro outran Biden by four points. A high single digit margin is definitely plausible. I'm cautious about it ending up in the low teens, but this is not entirely equivalent to a presidential election.

The Senate election will likely track closer to 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

Given polarization, I'm thinking Shapiro by about 4 seems most likely. It's unfortunate but remember Biden only won PA by a point against Trump in 2020, who isn't Mastriano levels of crazy but getting close.

Trump had an actual campaign infrastructure though. Also Shapiro outran Biden by four points. A high single digit margin is definitely plausible. I'm cautious about it ending up in the low teens, but this is not entirely equivalent to a presidential election.

The Senate election will likely track closer to 2020.

I do wonder if Mastriano is helping Oz in a backhanded sense that Mastriano being so crazy makes Oz look more normal and sane. I also feel like there's a bit of a simillar dynamic in Georgia; prior to 2020 Kemp was seem as pretty far right for Georgia but after he refused to give in to the big lie he's been hailed as some moderate hero and often compared to Walker, who is well... idk.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

Given polarization, I'm thinking Shapiro by about 4 seems most likely. It's unfortunate but remember Biden only won PA by a point against Trump in 2020, who isn't Mastriano levels of crazy but getting close.

Trump had an actual campaign infrastructure though. Also Shapiro outran Biden by four points. A high single digit margin is definitely plausible. I'm cautious about it ending up in the low teens, but this is not entirely equivalent to a presidential election.

The Senate election will likely track closer to 2020.

I do wonder if Mastriano is helping Oz in a backhanded sense that Mastriano being so crazy makes Oz look more normal and sane. I also feel like there's a bit of a simillar dynamic in Georgia; prior to 2020 Kemp was seem as pretty far right for Georgia but after he refused to give in to the big lie he's been hailed as some moderate hero and often compared to Walker, who is well... idk.

Possibly, but then again Mastriano's extremism is also almost certainly a motivator for Democrats to turn out which doesn't help Oz much either. I know that there are evidently Oz/Shapiro voters, but there don't seem to be that many to automatically yield that split result.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

I doubt he will win by Wolf's 2018 margin. As MT Treasurer inquired, The polling in this race could be very off due to Mastriano being portrayed(and rightfully so) as a neo nazi insurrectionist. Normally, the shy Trump effect is a bunch of bologna. But here, with a candidate that has been accused of being so horrible, I wouldn't want to admit I was voting for him, especially to people who literally know my phone number and can track me! Don't get me wrong, he has a near zero chance of actually winning but it wouldn't shock me if he dramatically overperformed the polling. My guess is Shapiro +4-9
Also, Mastriano is from Lancaster. He's so incompetent idk, but I doubt he loses it

[Not Me, Us]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

Lancaster County is pretty insane for the GOP and you can see a very very clear political divide line despite both counties being relatively white and of simillar density. I think the issue for Dems in Lancaster County is unlike Chester County, Philly really has very little influence over it. Lancaster itself has been growing though and overtime will probably cut into the GOP margin, but I honestly don't think it'll flip for quite a while and by then we may be looking at completely different coalitons.

[Calthrina950]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

As far as I know, only two Democrats have ever won Lancaster County - Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bob Casey Sr. in 1990. Lancaster is not as heavily Republican as it used to be, but it is still a reliably Republican stronghold. Mastriano will definitely carry it. But it is a county that could flip Democratic down the road.

[Not Me, Us]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

As far as I know, only two Democrats have ever won Lancaster County - Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bob Casey Sr. in 1990. Lancaster is not as heavily Republican as it used to be, but it is still a reliably Republican stronghold. Mastriano will definitely carry it. But it is a county that could flip Democratic down the road.

James Buchanan actually carried it as well due to being a favorite son, but that’s the only other example I’m aware of. It’s one of the most consistently Republican counties in the country.

[Calthrina950]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

As far as I know, only two Democrats have ever won Lancaster County - Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bob Casey Sr. in 1990. Lancaster is not as heavily Republican as it used to be, but it is still a reliably Republican stronghold. Mastriano will definitely carry it. But it is a county that could flip Democratic down the road.

James Buchanan actually carried it as well due to being a favorite son, but that’s the only other example I’m aware of. It’s one of the most consistently Republican counties in the country.

I forgot about Buchanan, but then I realize that was before the Civil War. Johnson is the only Democrat since Buchanan to have carried it at the presidential level. There are several other counties in Pennsylvania where Johnson is the only Democrat since the Civil War to have won at the presidential level, and all of those counties voted for Casey in 1990, when he won every county except for Montgomery.

[wbrocks67]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

Given polarization, I'm thinking Shapiro by about 4 seems most likely. It's unfortunate but remember Biden only won PA by a point against Trump in 2020, who isn't Mastriano levels of crazy but getting close.

Trump had an actual campaign infrastructure though. Also Shapiro outran Biden by four points. A high single digit margin is definitely plausible. I'm cautious about it ending up in the low teens, but this is not entirely equivalent to a presidential election.

The Senate election will likely track closer to 2020.

I do wonder if Mastriano is helping Oz in a backhanded sense that Mastriano being so crazy makes Oz look more normal and sane. I also feel like there's a bit of a simillar dynamic in Georgia; prior to 2020 Kemp was seem as pretty far right for Georgia but after he refused to give in to the big lie he's been hailed as some moderate hero and often compared to Walker, who is well... idk.

This can go both ways though, the fact that Mastriano has no campaign infrastructure and no money hurts Oz then because he has to do more heavy lifting to get people to turn out. There's also the nature of them both being on the same ticket, which still links Oz to Mastriano.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AllAboutPA/status/1579144723318865920

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/AllAboutPA/status/1579144723318865920

HOW TO LOSE AN ELECTION
Written by Doug Mastriano
Foreword by Hillary Clinton

1. Be insane
2. Focus on your insane positions
3. Fundraise exclusively from your small, hyperconservative base
4. Turn on said hyperconservative base
5. ??
6. Whatever the opposite of profit is.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

538 has also moved this into Solid D, with Shapiro at a 95% chance in Deluxe and 96% in the normal one.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

At this point you have to imagine Shapiro has some sort of coattails for the rest of the Dem ticket, including Fetterman.

[wbrocks67]

Obviously DelRosso is not going to throw Mastriano under the bus, but it is interesting to see how she's gone full MAGA at this point

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1579438059309105152

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1579758737362866178?s=20&t=fO6WA_uSc4Hym3...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1579758737362866178?s=20&t=fO6WA_uSc4Hym3...

WTF

[If my soul was made of stone]

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

[Spectator]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

I think Berks, Cumberland, and Lucerne are good bets. Beaver I’m not too sure about.

[If my soul was made of stone]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

I think Berks, Cumberland, and Lucerne are good bets. Beaver I’m not too sure about.

I'd only put money on Berks personally. Cumberland and Luzerne are of course moving in opposite directions but I think Cumberland is still a bit out of reach barring a complete curb-stomp (highly unlikely for an open-seat election in Penna in This Of All Eras) and Luzerne will fall short. Beaver has been on borrowed time for all but very popular old-school incumbent Dems for ages now (Kerry-McCain!) and collapsed downballot in 2020.

Saying that Shapiro could win Lancaster is pure trendz-bro people-are-merely-statistics cope.

[Spectator]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

I think Berks, Cumberland, and Lucerne are good bets. Beaver I’m not too sure about.

I'd only put money on Berks personally. Cumberland and Luzerne are of course moving in opposite directions but I think Cumberland is still a bit out of reach barring a complete curb-stomp (highly unlikely for an open-seat election in Penna in This Of All Eras) and Luzerne will fall short. Beaver has been on borrowed time for all but very popular old-school incumbent Dems for ages now (Kerry-McCain!) and collapsed downballot in 2020.

Saying that Shapiro could win Lancaster is pure trendz-bro people-are-merely-statistics cope.

I don’t think Shapiro has a shot at Lancaster, but could keep it in single digits which would be impressive. If Shapiro wins statewide by double digits, I think he’ll keep Cumberland County blue since I don’t imagine he’ll do anywhere near as good as Wolf in rural areas. I think suburban areas are where we’ll see him match or exceed Wolf 2018.

[If my soul was made of stone]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

I think Berks, Cumberland, and Lucerne are good bets. Beaver I’m not too sure about.

I'd only put money on Berks personally. Cumberland and Luzerne are of course moving in opposite directions but I think Cumberland is still a bit out of reach barring a complete curb-stomp (highly unlikely for an open-seat election in Penna in This Of All Eras) and Luzerne will fall short. Beaver has been on borrowed time for all but very popular old-school incumbent Dems for ages now (Kerry-McCain!) and collapsed downballot in 2020.

Saying that Shapiro could win Lancaster is pure trendz-bro people-are-merely-statistics cope.

I don’t think Shapiro has a shot at Lancaster, but could keep it in single digits which would be impressive. If Shapiro wins statewide by double digits, I think he’ll keep Cumberland County blue since I don’t imagine he’ll do anywhere near as good as Wolf in rural areas. I think suburban areas are where we’ll see him match or exceed Wolf 2018.

Cumberland will definitely continue the #trendz on the backs of Concerned Mechanicsburg Lacrosse Moms and some goodwill from Wolf, but probably not enough to stick. Luzerne will still be far ahead of its recent Presidential numbers but it would really require a perfect storm of relative turnout to get Shapiro over the line. I'm expecting Shapiro to win by about 5 to 7 points, fwiw.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/AllAboutPA/status/1579144723318865920

https://twitter.com/cavalorn/status/654934442549620736