Democratic Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[Shadows]

Haha. That still makes no sense.

Probably not, but I vote how I vote. I intend to vote Bernie (assuming write-in isn't available, which it hasn't been in prior midterm caucuses), in my state's caucus and Hillary in the general, assuming Hillary gets the nomination. I want to make a point by voting for the more lefty option in the primary, but I am perfectly happy with what I see as the more electable candidate winning the primary and hopefully the general.

IMO ( & I may be wrong here) Clinton is a sure shot loser against a moderate GOP guy in the GE. Independents will ultimately decide who wins the GE & Sanders polls so strong among them (She will also get 0 Cross over from the GOP). Her only hope is for Trump or some weirdo divisive guy like that to represent the GOP as that is the only way she can win. I am not even going into Clinton's scandals vulnerability or her un-favorability ratings. But the dislike she has among the general public is weird, not even a 2 time President Obama has such dislike among the people even though the GOP establishment absolutely hates him to.

You should vote whether it is Clinton or Sanders.

I have a doubt - What is this Preference Poll - Caucus thing, they have 2 processes, which one is the one? I have a doubt that Sanders people ( a large amount of 1st time voters) would participate in the poll & be naive & go home. Can you shed some light on these 2 processes?

[Shadows]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

[Shadows]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

Stop lying. Obama lost independents in 2012 and still won 300+ electoral votes.

I know you and your cult leader have a tenuous grasp of "facts" and especially "math" but my god.

Change your name to "Fraud Lief" first after you got caught lying on the fundraising part - You are a notoriously bad poster  - And you should acknowledge that 1st & then we'll talk

[Shadows]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

You know the exit polls from 2012 still exist right?

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

Romney won "independents" 50-45 in 2012.

50-45 is not much of a win? What was the sample size? There are response & sample biases in every survey & then you could argue if that sample represents the population.

50-45 over a small sample compared to the population means essentially shows no1 had a clear majority. Dems & GOP made 38% & 32% of the population meaning low turnout among the GOP & highly energized base of the Dem.

Either way independents barely had a role here (I didn't bother to check the facts but I know Obama had significant independent support).

Just to add BTW this is an exit poll - Exit poll which showed Sanders winning Mass by 5%, losing Okla by 10% & I could go on & on. They fail most of the times & vary. The data is not conclusive to prove Romney won independents.

[Shadows]

Interestingly, John Kerry also won independents, 49-48.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

49-48 on an "Exit Poll" based on a very small sample trying to replicate the population. Clearly shows no1 had a decisive win if the sample represents the population.

1% is nothing, Kerry may lost by 2-3-4% the independent vote.

[Shadows]

How are the results in Arizona coming in with 1000's still in line?

Is this absentee voting?

[Shadows]

Hillary could get indicted & anyways would drop out when the FBI finds her guilty, indictment or not.

Either ways only 50% of the states have voted, so I don't see the big deal.

If he cares about the progressive movement, then Hillary clean needs to lose in November for a real progressive to rise - The Dem party needs to have a huge temporary setback if it needs to go the right way on the long term.

Supporting a mass murderer neo con is doing so service to the progressive wing.

[Shadows]

Heard Kasich came 4th in some state behind Rubio who dropped out!

[Shadows]

Huffington Post showing 100% Idaho precincts reporting.

Ssnders with 78% of the votes - 17 or 18 Delegates to Sanders out of 23!

#Feelthebern

Lol - Win after a while feels nice!

[Shadows]

Probably a 17-6 delegate split in Idaho.

NYT gives 17-5

It's looking like it will be close to a tie in delegates tonight.

18-5 likely.

Sanders would be gaining 15 odd delegates at the end including Arizona. Arizona ain't that good, he could have been 50-60 delegates up tonight with a win in Arizona.

[Shadows]

The early voting handed Hillary AZ, After that Sanders actually led by a small amount.

Anyways real kudos to the Hillary ground campaign who helped push all those absentee ballots in old age homes & hospitals - Strong performance by her volunteers! Sanders' college kid supporters, I guess, were too busy smoking weed!

[Shadows]

Sanders crossed 79% at Utah - Unreal - May touch 80%.

If he can replicate these results in Washington, he will get close to a 60 Delegate gain, that is 1/5th of Hillary's lead gone.

I know that sounds un-realistic but Sanders should try to maximize Washington - Ultimately @ the end of it, better to lose by 100 delegates than say 300. I want Sanders to lay the ground work for a more progressive candidate, if can't win the POTUS

[Shadows]

61% of Utah is in & Sanders is @ 79.3%.

Can he touch 80%?

[Shadows]

Down to 79.1%. Clinton did well in Salt Lake City - She got 21% of the vote which helps her cross the 20% mark!

Guess it will be 79%!

[Shadows]

I predict (in Utah) he'll continue to slowly decline, but will remain over 78.57%.

Washington Post is showing Sanders @ 80% now. This is a massacre!

[Shadows]

Bring her down to the teens Utah!!! A much better night overall compared to when it started. Also only 38% of Yavapai county has reported in Arizona, If it had a Sanders surge it would be the same map of 2008

She's down to 19.9% with 77% in!

[Shadows]

I am hoping Bernie wins files a suit due to Arizona fraud - Under-staffing & so few polling areas, people standing in a line all night - A lot of people give provisional ballot because they ran out of ballots. They don't count provisional ballots.

I can understand that it being closed, many independents were turned away but how come many life long Democrats were turned away because they were surprisingly not registered.

I don't think it is a deliberate effort, but a massacre due to horrible incompetency.

[Shadows]

I am hoping Bernie wins files a suit due to Arizona fraud - Under-staffing & so few polling areas, people standing in a line all night - A lot of people give provisional ballot because they ran out of ballots. They don't count provisional ballots.

I can understand that it being closed, many independents were turned away but how come many life long Democrats were turned away because they were surprisingly not registered.

I don't think it is a deliberate effort, but a massacre due to horrible incompetency.

Now then, the issuance of provisional ballots may have limited the counted votes, but one would imagine that there wouldn't be such a significant discrepancy between the make-up of those early enough to receive actual ballots and those who had to do with the provisionals for there to be considerable impact on the delegate count. Their incompetence, intentional or not, may have negatively affected either candidate. And how Hillary seems to have foolishly assumed the nomination, one would also imagine she would not have been so rash as to have orchestrated such a risky maneuver.

I am no saying it has decided a victory or not - But it could have had a big difference in % or somewhat which changes the delegate math.

Clinton won because she swept the early voting - If you consider election day results Sanders won in  most counties - Otherwise he would be worse.

I have heard complains from plenty of Bernie supporters - I am not saying Clinton people were not likely to be affected, they were & Bernie's people got more affected.

Either way it is unfair on both candidates, it's BS & he needs to push it to ensure this nonsense is not getting repeated

[Shadows]

...and then any gains made are wiped out by New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania a few weeks later.

Maryland would be bad but NY & PA won't be a blow-out - Sanders will post decent numbers in NY. PA could well be a Sanders win (Strong demographics for Sanders - 80% White, around 4-5% less black than say in Illinois where he tied almost, lesser hispanics). The close process hurts but neither is NY or PA will be a blow-out (MD on the other hand has a higher black population than SC & Alabama)!