Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio

[NOVA Green]

Monmouth is an A+ Pollster according to 538, although I don't know their track record of polling in Ohio.

These results do seem to match what we would expect with an LV screen and national polling averages, along with some general assumptions and conventional wisdom regarding the Trump appeal in places like SE OH and possibly some historical mfg areas in Eastern/NE Ohio where we could expect to see a heavier Republican swing than in some of the previous election cycles....

That being said, it looks like Trump gains in certain parts of Ohio are likely being offset in some of the more affluent suburbs of Cleveland and even possibly Columbus (Although there are probably fewer potential Democratic votes to mine when looking at the past few election cycles so might be close to being tapped out for Hillary expansion).

[NOVA Green]

The "academic debate" you are citing is some angry Trump supporters tweeting at Patrick Murray based on a faulty article from a conservative website trying to unskew a poll.

It's one thing if it's a point or two deviance. It's quite another when you are talking about 8-points. Something is amiss in the sample at that point if you have to make that much of an adjustment.

Again, I am not unskewing a thing. I am not attempting to advocate that Trump leads here. I am not calling anyone either a partisan or a hack. I am not attacking Monmouth. I am just pointing out the unusual reweighing of this particular poll.

You do not usually see that much reweighing done with most polls. Something was not quite right with the underlying sample if that much massaging had to be done to get the numbers in line with Monmouth's turnout assumptions for race, age, gender, etc.

Seriously?

Let's face it--- this is actually a pretty decent poll for your man Trump, considering we have had four polls from Ohio starting from 7/30 through 8/21 and Trump is getting the best weighted result among LVs compared to the A- Q, B YouGov, and the A Marist (RV only).

It's lonely in the wilderness sometimes, and as a Bernie supporter in the primaries I know that on the forum sometimes even reasonable attempts at political discussion will occasionally be met by sarcasm and ridicule, during the heat of election season.

I don't agree with attempting to unskew a particular poll from a top pollster based upon "party self-identification" when as we all know most Americans will self-identify to a pollster, regardless of party registration when they are leaning towards or planning to vote for the figurehead of the party...

What I will say is this.... there will be plenty more decent polls of Ohio hopefully before Labor Day (But not holding my breath) and we should have a clearer picture of the state of the race in Ohio shortly.

Objectively, it does appear that Hillary is now about 3-4% up in Ohio *at this time*, and attempting to reweigh a poll is not going to chance the statistical consensus, regardless of whatever candidate one chooses to support.