Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Landslide Lyndon]

Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday.

The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm.

You can look at how many calls they have made (20 million) and how many doors they have knocked on for GOTV in each individual precinct here:

https://win.betofortexas.com/?source=plantowin

1.6 million GOTV doors knocked, although that goes back to even a bit before the beginning of the early vote period.

I do have to say that O'Rourke's campaign does seem to have a strong and impressive organization. Maybe that's enough to deliver higher than expected numbers for him.

Even if he loses, his network will be an important legacy for future campaigns. That's what happened in GA-06 where McBath might beat Handel based on the network Ossoff left behind.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Prelim exits should be coming at the top of the hour.

And?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Fox News voter analysis data:

65-34 on economy
51% want to repeal Obamacare
46% support the wall
66% think political correctness has gone too far

Among Republicans? Because otherwise these numbers have no relation to reality.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The exit polls have gotten it wrong so many times in the past. Let's not put trust in them now.

Personally, I had every intention to boycott them. But most of Atlas has a different opinion.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Reminder that Fox did their own exit poll this year

Oh, that explains A LOT.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there any chance for Dems in CA10/39/45? All the other uncalled races seem to be ticking towards Dems.

Harder(D) might actually still be favored in CA-10. Late/absentee usually leans quite a bit Dem in CA.

39 and 45 are tougher.

I was shocked when I saw that total votes were barely above 110 thousand in Denham's district. There must be at least as much as that left to count.

[Landslide Lyndon]

so the "swing state" of nevada has a congressional delegation of one republican lol

And "safe R" Amodei won by about the same margin as "toss up" Susie Lee, lol.

Why the pundits were moronic enough to think perennial loser Danny Tarkanian of all people had a chance at winning a Democratic held district in a Democratic year...I will never know.

Technically it was a Trump district.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats.

The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman.

Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew.

You shouldn't be. Van Drew's opponent is more of an abominable embarrassment than Trump, and that's saying a lot.

How else can you call the people who voted for Grossmann other than deplorables?
And  of course pundits will accuse Democrats that they don't do enough to reach out to them.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ?

McSally has actually gained a bit.  It went from a 0.9 to 1.0 for McSally, with Maricopa reporting.

Totally relevant with the question asked above.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Arizona looking to be out of reach.

Florida obviously shouldn’t even be a discussion.

How many total house seats we looking at? 229?

Can you please stop trolling.

AZ has like 600,000+ votes left to count. And FL is literally at like a 21k margin.

He'll stop trolling when people stop paying attention to him...

This.
And please stop quoting all these trolls we already have on ignore.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

Why do you say that?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

Why do you say that?

Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough.

I know that but the above poster seemed to imply that something changed in the last few hours.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race

Not to be rude, but you keep coming in here and telling us how hopeless AZ and Fl are.

By all means, be rude with this specific poster.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race

Not to be rude, but you keep coming in here and telling us how hopeless AZ and Fl are.

By all means, be rude with this specific poster.

Seriously. You may or may not be right Panda guinea pig, but your posts about Florida practically reek of dog sweat. Towel yourself off and chill.

He thinks that repeating a lie (like with Sherrod Brown being a wife-beater) will make it true.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Pima Country just dropped some ballots!

Are there more or that's all from them?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

Porter won 61% of this batch!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I keep hearing the next Maricopa batch should favor McSally is this true? Did Dems do bad there on election day?

Favor as in she won't get creamed by 15 points like she did in today's batch.

[Landslide Lyndon]

35+ seats in the house
At least a 7% popular vote victory
Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map
7 governors mansions gained
This is a wave my friends

TBH, I'm a bit disappointed with the governors numbers. I expected at minimum 8 pick-ups.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What the heck is going on with Utah? Are they going to finish counting by Thanksgiving?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060953282439393280

I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, in that case I guess Maine's new legislature can just pass a law reinstating it.
And if they try to abolish redistricting commissions that will also mean that California, New Jersey and Washington Democrats will also be free to gerrymander their states. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits?
Fun times.