Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see.

John Cox (against Gavin Newsom)!  I know it's the wrong thread, but this one seems to be more active.  And Valadao's district isn't even in Orange County!

[Oryxslayer]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

Depends. The trendline is very favorable to Newson, along with the precedence from the primary, but he has to net 30K votes. Anyone know how many still remain in OC?

[Gass3268]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

Depends. The trendline is very favorable to Newson, along with the precedence from the primary, but he has to net 30K votes. Anyone know how many still remain in OC?

There are still 300K votes in the OC.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see.

John Cox (against Gavin Newsom)!  I know it's the wrong thread, but this one seems to be more active.  And Valadao's district isn't even in Orange County!

Oops! haha four hours of sleep!

But anyways, from what I've seen, the trend line in OC is favorable to Newsom, and if the Dems sweep all the CDs in the county (Looking likelier by the day), then I can see Newsom winning it.

[Oryxslayer]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

Depends. The trendline is very favorable to Newson, along with the precedence from the primary, but he has to net 30K votes. Anyone know how many still remain in OC?

There are still 300K votes in the OC.

Yeah then OC probably flips before Thanksgiving or so depending on the size of the drops.

[Fubart Solman]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see.

John Cox (against Gavin Newsom)!  I know it's the wrong thread, but this one seems to be more active.  And Valadao's district isn't even in Orange County!

No complaints here. Not sure why the other one never took off.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When is OC expected to drop?

[Gass3268]

When is OC expected to drop?

5 minutes

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Things don't portend well for Young Kim after the latest dump:

Where is the link for where you are getting those?

It seems to be more up to date than this -

https://vote.sos.ca.gov/

?

[Virginiá]

Where is the link for where you are getting those?

It seems to be more up to date than this -

https://vote.sos.ca.gov/

?

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot

[Tintrlvr]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see.

To talk about this topic, even though it was a mistaken response -- there are 7,788 votes left in Kings County. There are 22,072 votes left in Kern County. Do we know what portion of Kern County is in CA-21? I think it's around 45%, which would mean about 10,000 ballots for CA-21, but hard to be certain. If we assume the 2016 Presidential figures control the remaining late ballots as they have in the recent dumps, that puts [TJ] Cox narrowly ahead of Valadao with all the votes in (ignoring Fresno since it's so small but should mildly boost Cox as well). There's also the fact that the counties apparently have very different types of ballots left - the lion's share of Kings County's remaining ballots are late VBMs, but Kern County weirdly is mostly provisionals (around 16,000, which seems like a lot to me but I think that figure is all provisionals that will be counted, i.e., does not include unverified ones). If the provisionals, which I don't think have been counted in either county yet, are even more Democratic than the late VBM ballots, which doesn't seem implausible, Cox may be favored at this point.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PORTER TOOK THE LEAD!!

[Gass3268]

Katie Porter!!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hill nearly has a 10K vote lead over Knight. CA-25 might be gone for the GOP for a while.

[Xing]

Congrats, Representative Porter!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

[Oryxslayer]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

OC and LA.

[Oryxslayer]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

OC and LA.

Okay then. CA-39 probably flips Thursday then.

[Bidenworth2020]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

OC and LA.

I am confused. This is with both OC and LA? san bernadino is probably even and kim wins then.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see.

To talk about this topic, even though it was a mistaken response -- there are 7,788 votes left in Kings County. There are 22,072 votes left in Kern County. Do we know what portion of Kern County is in CA-21? I think it's around 45%, which would mean about 10,000 ballots for CA-21, but hard to be certain. If we assume the 2016 Presidential figures control the remaining late ballots as they have in the recent dumps, that puts [TJ] Cox narrowly ahead of Valadao with all the votes in (ignoring Fresno since it's so small but should mildly boost Cox as well). There's also the fact that the counties apparently have very different types of ballots left - the lion's share of Kings County's remaining ballots are late VBMs, but Kern County weirdly is mostly provisionals (around 16,000, which seems like a lot to me but I think that figure is all provisionals that will be counted, i.e., does not include unverified ones). If the provisionals, which I don't think have been counted in either county yet, are even more Democratic than the late VBM ballots, which doesn't seem implausible, Cox may be favored at this point.

The King County dump that we just got does appear to have been good for Valadao. He out-performed the Trump 2016 % substantially, winning 66% of it as compared to Trump winning 54% in Kings County in 2016.

As far as Kern goes, the part of Kern that is in CA-21 voted for Clinton 66.56% to 28.19% in 2016. In 2016, there were 49,799 votes cast in the CA-21 part of Kern and 192,242 in the CA-23 part of Kern. So if you are correct that there are 16,000 votes to go in Kern, and if they are distributed between CA-21 and CA-23 in proportion to 2016 turnout, that would mean 20.6% of them are in CA-21. That would be 3292 ballots. If those broke at the same % for Cox as Clinton and the same % for Valadao as Trump + 3rd parties, that would mean about 2191 votes left in Kern for Cox and 1101 votes left in Kern for Valadao (a margin of 1090). That would cut Valadao's lead down from 2389 votes, but he would still be up by 1299 votes (as a very rough, high error estimate).

Does anyone know if there are votes out from Fresno and/or Tulare in CA-21? The parts of those counties in CA-21 both voted for Clinton by 13 points in 2016, so that might help a bit as well if there are more votes there.

But it does look like the outstanding votes probably have to go better for Cox than one would probably expect in order for him to win. Either there need to be more ballots left, or he needs to do better with the ballots left than Clinton did with ballots overall. It is possible there could be more ballots left, for one reason because I would bet there could be more provisionals and late ballots from the CA-21 part of Kern simply because that part is more Dem, and provisionals and late ballots tend to skew Dem.

[ag]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

OC and LA.

I am confused. This is with both OC and LA? san bernadino is probably even and kim wins then.

Yes, both OC and LA. But I do not believe this is the last update - we still have a few days to go, or don't we?

[Oryxslayer]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

OC and LA.

I am confused. This is with both OC and LA? san bernadino is probably even and kim wins then.

Kim wins today yes. But tomorrow? What about the day after that? And the day after that? And the day after that...

CA counts until December 6. Its obvious this seat is flipping in < 3 days.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

OC and LA.

I am confused. This is with both OC and LA? san bernadino is probably even and kim wins then.

What don't you understand? Kim's lead is down to 711 votes after both LA and OC dropped today.