Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 207401 times)
Sestak
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« Reply #3750 on: November 10, 2018, 07:05:23 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 07:02:42 PM
Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120

How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow?

No, this was Sinema's batch. The next one will be McSally's. So depends on McSally batch vs Pima.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #3751 on: November 10, 2018, 07:05:29 PM »
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3752 on: November 10, 2018, 07:05:39 PM »
Quote from: The Inevitable Kevin Stitt on November 10, 2018, 07:04:29 PM
Quote from: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 07:02:42 PM
Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120

How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow?

The rest of Pima alone would turn that into a Hobbs lead. Gaynor needs to win the rest of Maricopa to win

So a meaningful amount of Pima is still out?  Does this mean Sinema's lead is now basically insurmountable?
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henster
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« Reply #3753 on: November 10, 2018, 07:05:59 PM »
50K of batch A votes apparently have been quarantined.
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Sestak
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« Reply #3754 on: November 10, 2018, 07:06:00 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 10, 2018, 07:05:39 PM
Quote from: The Inevitable Kevin Stitt on November 10, 2018, 07:04:29 PM
Quote from: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 07:02:42 PM
Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120

How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow?

The rest of Pima alone would turn that into a Hobbs lead. Gaynor needs to win the rest of Maricopa to win

So a meaningful amount of Pima is still out?  Does this mean Sinema's lead is now basically insurmountable?

Pretty much.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3755 on: November 10, 2018, 07:06:07 PM »
This was a bucket B batch:



Devastating for McSally.
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Sestak
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« Reply #3756 on: November 10, 2018, 07:06:23 PM »
Quote from: henster on November 10, 2018, 07:05:59 PM
50K of batch A votes apparently have been quarantined.

Wait, what? There are 50K MORE?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #3757 on: November 10, 2018, 07:07:15 PM »
I kept telling everyone that this would happen
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Sestak
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« Reply #3758 on: November 10, 2018, 07:08:04 PM »
Holy f**k, that was the supposedly "McSally" batch?

Senate: Likely D -> Safe D

SoS: Tossup -> Likely D
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henster
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« Reply #3759 on: November 10, 2018, 07:08:23 PM »
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Zaybay
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« Reply #3760 on: November 10, 2018, 07:08:44 PM »
wait, this was the pro-McSally batch. Well, looks like the SoS is ours!
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3761 on: November 10, 2018, 07:09:12 PM »
If that was batch B, then the networks should probably be calling this race for Sinema.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #3762 on: November 10, 2018, 07:09:23 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on November 10, 2018, 07:08:04 PM
Holy f**k, that was the supposedly "McSally" batch?

Senate: Likely D -> Safe D

SoS: Tossup -> Likely D

Yep. Rip McSally. Press F to pay respects.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #3763 on: November 10, 2018, 07:09:27 PM »
Senator-elect Sinema
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Nyvin
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« Reply #3764 on: November 10, 2018, 07:10:40 PM »
So what was dropped? The Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket?  I'm confused.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #3765 on: November 10, 2018, 07:11:47 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 10, 2018, 07:10:40 PM
So what was dropped? The Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket?  I'm confused.

This was at least part of bucket B (McSally’s strong bucket)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3766 on: November 10, 2018, 07:11:47 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 10, 2018, 07:10:40 PM
So what was dropped the Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket?  I'm confused.

It was Bucket B, which should have been pro-McSally.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #3767 on: November 10, 2018, 07:12:43 PM »
Note that the only reason 'bucket B' was supposed to be pro-McSally is because her campaign told reporters that it would be. There was no reason to actually believe that this would be the case.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #3768 on: November 10, 2018, 07:13:17 PM »
LOL the AP called the SOS race for Gaynor too. Looks like they'll have to retract that if Bucket B cuts into his margin like that.
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Thatkat04
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« Reply #3769 on: November 10, 2018, 07:13:51 PM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on November 10, 2018, 07:12:43 PM
Note that the only reason 'bucket B' was supposed to be pro-McSally is because her campaign told reporters that it would be. There was no reason to actually believe that this would be the case.

It certainly was a stretch to believe that since in person election day votes were R+10, all early votes delivered on election day would be too.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3770 on: November 10, 2018, 07:14:31 PM »
Projection incoming?
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henster
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« Reply #3771 on: November 10, 2018, 07:14:48 PM »
The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #3772 on: November 10, 2018, 07:15:50 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 10, 2018, 07:10:40 PM
So what was dropped? The Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket?  I'm confused.

both, apparently
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3773 on: November 10, 2018, 07:16:26 PM »
Quote from: henster on November 10, 2018, 07:14:48 PM
The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed.

So if it wasn't all Batch B today, this probably isn't callable yet, but Sinema has to be a 3 or 4 to 1 favorite at this point with some favorable Batch A still out?
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Thatkat04
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« Reply #3774 on: November 10, 2018, 07:16:36 PM »
Quote from: henster on November 10, 2018, 07:14:48 PM
The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed.

Thats fine, but this batch had early votes returned on election day and it still went for Sinema by 3 points.
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