Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[lfromnj]

Not sure where else to put this, so:

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1061139476653768704

Looks like Republicans are finally upset enough to give ActRed another try (McCarthy seems interested). Probably won't work out, though. Democrats have been building their small donor base for years. It didn't just "work" for us right away either.

Eh trump can just include it in all his tweets whenever he endorses.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it really such a good idea to appoint McSally to the other senate seat just weeks after her defeat? Won't that be a giant middle finger to the voters who rejected her?
And aren't there any other ambitious Republicans who will resent this blatant act of favoritism and will seriously consider primarying her?

[Holmes]

Is it really such a good idea to appoint McSally to the other senate seat just weeks after her defeat? Won't that be a giant middle finger to the voters who rejected her?

Yes. But if you really think about it, so are unelected gubernatorial appointments to vacant Senate seats as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061128798924611584

[JG]

Is it really such a good idea to appoint McSally to the other senate seat just weeks after her defeat? Won't that be a giant middle finger to the voters

I mean, between voters supression and their outrage at counting every ballots, isn't that the Republican's whole shtick?

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%.

According to Wasserman's current data, there are 8:

GA-06 D+0.9
GA-07 R+0.3
ME-02 R+0.7 (before RCV)
MN-01 R+0.5
NY-22 D+0.6
NY-27 R+1.0
NC-09 R+0.7
TX-23 R+0.6

Plus some of the close California races may move into this range when they're done counting.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%.

According to Wasserman's current data, there are 8:

GA-06 D+0.9
GA-07 R+0.3
ME-02 R+0.7 (before RCV)
MN-01 R+0.5
NY-22 D+0.6
NY-27 R+1.0
NC-09 R+0.7
TX-23 R+0.6

Plus some of the close California races may move into this range when they're done counting.

There is also UT-04, which Silver has as Likely D. I'm puzzled because to my untrained eye it seems like Utah County is so heavily Republican that it may have the votes to push Love over the top.

[Oryxslayer]

Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%.

According to Wasserman's current data, there are 8:

GA-06 D+0.9
GA-07 R+0.3
ME-02 R+0.7 (before RCV)
MN-01 R+0.5
NY-22 D+0.6
NY-27 R+1.0
NC-09 R+0.7
TX-23 R+0.6

Plus some of the close California races may move into this range when they're done counting.

There is also UT-04, which Silver has as Likely D. I'm puzzled because to my untrained eye it seems like Utah County is so heavily Republican that it may have the votes to push Love over the top.

Geography hides the actual data. According to UT04 on DRA, there are:

- about 12K people in Sanpete
- 9.5K in Juab
- 87K in Utah
- 594K in SLC

The chunk of Utah county in this seat includes none of the large cities like Provo and is instead basically everything west of Lake Utah, which is mostly rurals. So why is this seat so Pub if SLC overwhelms the districts cracking rurals? That chunk of SLC includes the most pub parts of the county like the Jordans and Riverton. If McAdams can defeat these areas in SLC and win the county by more then a 3% margin, he wins - the rurals/Utah only lower the overall margin by about that amount.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure why people are surprised Ducey won in AZ. It was less about it being R, but more about he was assured to win once the McCain stuff happened. Garcia stood no chance after that no matter what.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061296656526860289

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061296656526860289

nate could just say dems have around 230 and reps have 240. Rep Wave> dem wave .

[GeorgiaModerate]

I unignored everyone for Election Night, but I have a feeling it's time to start a new list.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061296656526860289

This is an odd way to think about it IMO

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1061296656526860289

This is an odd way to think about it IMO

Ya usually I’m on board with Nate’s odd data perspectives but it doesn’t make much sense to include the House gains as a president gains office with his first midterm.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061322885032173570

[Thatkat04]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061322885032173570

This batch was McSally +4. She needs to be winning by a much larger margin here to have a chance.

[Virginiá]

Turnout could actually end up higher than 31% when the CPS analysis is done.

Also:

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061322885032173570

This batch was McSally +4. She needs to be winning by a much larger margin here to have a chance.

That’s not nearly enough for her

[Zaybay]

If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas.

Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal.

[pppolitics]

If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas.

Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal.

Sinema wants to have a word with you.

[Kodak]

If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas.

Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal.

The high Republican enthusiasm this year doesn't bode well for 2020, either. Trump needs to fix his approval with independents or get a miracle to win.

[Zaybay]

If anything can be gathered from this election, it was enthusiasm. The Dems were enthused to vote, and this shows with their gains in house seats. But the problem for Dems is that the Rs were just as enthused, which allowed them to take many senate seats and defend many rural areas.

Enthusiasm seems to be a main player in how well a party will do from now on, instead of cross appeal.

Sinema wants to have a word with you.

AZ has a WV problem with registration. While crossover appeal was definitely a factor, as it as in many other races, the enthusiasm that each party had going in was the defining factor for many races.

With polarization on the rise, and tribalism increasing, enthusiasm will become the main factor to campaign.

[Brittain33]

Ya usually I’m on board with Nate’s odd data perspectives but it doesn’t make much sense to include the House gains as a president gains office with his first midterm.

There needs to be some way to account for the different exposure each President had to a reversal in the House. Otherwise you're "penalizing" the Dems in this comparison because Obama was a better candidate than Trump running in a landslide win.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784