Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Sestak]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jerryiannelli/status/1061042273813778434

OK, this is getting 10 million kinds of ridiculous now.

[pppolitics]

There is a separate thread for Florida:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306430.0

[Alabama_Indy10]

There is a separate thread for Florida:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306430.0

I’m aware.

[ag]

I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs.

Presumably, the argument would be that it is unconstitutional to change the congressional election process through citizen initiative, because the Constitution gives the power to regulate congressional elections to state legislatures (subject to federal legislation).

This argument was rejected by the Supreme Court in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015.  But the vote was 5-4, with Kennedy breaking the tie to side with the four liberals.  With Kennedy replaced by Kavanaugh, the outcome could be different if the Court heard the same argument today.

While this may be grounds to sue, I cannot see how it can have any remedy other than ordering a completely new election under the old rules. This election was run based on a certain law. Had the old law and simple plurality rule been in place, both candidates and voters would have behaved differently: in particular, arguably, many of the voters who went for minor candidates on their first choice would have voted for one of the two major candidates (any amount of political scientists would testify to that as well-established fact: it is, in fact, well-established).  Ordering the count to be done based on the old (plurality) rule would not help establish the result that would have obtained had that rule been in place from the beginning. So, the only remedy available is to annul the election and rerun it. If a court orders simply not counting second preferences, it would not be materially different from ordering one of the candidates to be declared elected without any vote whatsoever. Indeed, no plurality vote has been held - so it is not possible to establish its likely outcome without actually organizing it.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1061050428530585601

[Thatkat04]

Again, I dont get the logic. Why do late-early votes have to be republican leaning? Just seems like a massive assumption by McSally's team.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm comforted to see that we may pickup Arizona after all. I have my fingers crossed. If Sinema can win and Nelson can somehow maintain his seat by some miracle, I intend to apologize to the forum for my sourpuss antics as of late because this midterm will have turned out to be a strong net positive after all. I'll feel vindicated for reasons beyond Senate control too, because this result would resemble my exact Senate prediction for the 2018 Senate.

I'm not going to apologize to Florida though. It may end up not being synonymous with doom anymore, if this happens, but the fact that Nelson may overcome a loss of a few thousand votes due to a recount kind of has negative ramifications too. This would mean that if a recount had been allowed in 2000, we most likely would have had President Gore and this country, as well as the world, probably would have been better off being spared eight years of the Bush administration! Earth 2 can probably attest to this. That kind of upsets me. Something so simple could have prevented the future that we are currently living in today. Florida needs to stop doing this to itself, its voters, and the country at large. Stop "monkeying" things up. Get your s*** together in regards to how you handle your elections! Maybe those ex-felons will make the difference.

[J. J.]

95k more like what we saw tonight from Maricopa would single handedly erase the deficit in the SOS race without even factoring in the rest of the D heavy Pima votes. Which has huge consequences in limiting Ducey climbing to the Senate and also getting a D in control of elections in 2020

Maricopa has 226,000 ballots uncounted. 

[libertpaulian]

95k more like what we saw tonight from Maricopa would single handedly erase the deficit in the SOS race without even factoring in the rest of the D heavy Pima votes. Which has huge consequences in limiting Ducey climbing to the Senate and also getting a D in control of elections in 2020

Maricopa has 226,000 ballots uncounted.  

My main question...where are these ballots coming from?  Conservative areas?  Moderate swingy areas?  Liberal areas?

[Thatkat04]

95k more like what we saw tonight from Maricopa would single handedly erase the deficit in the SOS race without even factoring in the rest of the D heavy Pima votes. Which has huge consequences in limiting Ducey climbing to the Senate and also getting a D in control of elections in 2020

Maricopa has 226,000 ballots uncounted.  

My main question...where are these ballots coming from?  Conservative areas?  Moderate swingy areas?  Liberal areas?

Nate Silver said there are quite a few ballots left from AZ-09. That was from this morning though.

[henster]

Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days.

[Thatkat04]

Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days.

Yes, in person election day votes. But I'm not sure that means late early votes delivered on election day are identical in party i.d. McSally's camp seems to think that, but I'm not sure its sound logic.

[Sestak]

Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days.

Yes, in person election day votes. But I'm not sure that means late early votes delivered on election day are identical in party i.d. McSally's camp seems to think that, but I'm not sure its sound logic.

Even if they were she wouldn’t be picking up enough. She needs them to be better than in person Election Day.

[Thatkat04]

Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days.

Hang on, If Sinema leads by double digits in the “even” ones, then she should be leading in the R+10 ones too, right?

She won this even "bucket" by 15, so yeah, Sinema might end up ahead in an R+10.

[libertpaulian]

When are we getting the next batch of Maricopa votes?  Are they dumping all 226K at once, or no?

[Thatkat04]

When are we getting the next batch of Maricopa votes?  Are they dumping all 226K at once, or no?

We are getting another dump tomorrow at 5. I believe after tonight, there are two more bucket drops left.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1060978389945851910

[Landslide Lyndon]

[wbrocks67]

Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them.

AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too

[Gass3268]

CA-10 just flipped!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Can someone explain why the networks haven't called NY-22 for Brindisi yet?

[Gass3268]

Can someone explain why the networks haven't called NY-22 for Brindisi yet?

Probably going to go to a recount after there was a tabulation error.

[Skill and Chance]

Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them.

AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too

Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point.  CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now.  Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift.

[Ebsy]

RIP Denham, worthless career in tatters. HP.

[henster]

Would be hilarious if Kim ended up losing, I've seen countless tweets congratulating her for being the first Korean women to be elected in Congress even one saying she was the first Asian women lol. Usual whining from cons 'why is the media ignoring her!!'.