Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[User157088589849]

Long way to go in Arizona everyone calm down. Race is super close.

[Yank2133]

So assuming Sinema holds on, the Senate will end up R+1 or R+2 depending on Florida (which I refuse to make any predictions on at this point).  I expect that most Democrats would have taken that along with D+~35 in the House if it was offered to them a week ago!

I’m getting a what could have been feeling. Florida is going to sting for a while.

And the realization that literally nothing Trump does is going to change the mind of the rural cult following is depressing and honestly makes me think he can win in 2020 and that’s sobering enough to overshadow the good things from this midterm

lol, your act is getting old.

It’s not an “act”. I’m thrilled at the house results but it’s worth considering that for the past two years I’ve told myself that a lot of people supported trump to try something new but after seeing the way he really is, his support would significantly decrease - to see that his supporters are more emboldened is scary to me. I would’ve bet the house on him being a one term President, now I’m not sure.

In a normal political environment where voters held the President responsible - Missouri, Indiana and Florida would have been Democratic wins. It’s sobering to see that not be the case.

I’d gladly take 53-47 for a Senate result, Florida will sting though because that one extra seat probably puts the Senate out of reach for 2020.

Dude, it is an act (a tiresome act as well).

Tuesday, you considered the election a disaster for Democrats. Now that things are looking pretty good for them, you are now trying to save face by shifting the narrative to 2020.

Hell, your pessimism doesn't even make sense. Republicans won in states that Trump carried in 2016, but lost ground in the states that put him over (WI, PA, and MI). If anything, the election showed that there is a path to 270 in 2020 if Democrats play they cards right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

These are pro-Sinema ballots, but this race is on a knife's edge which is very good news for Democrats anyway. A true toss-up.

What is the final result in the House? How many seats Dem got in the end?

The final tally isn't determined yet, and may not be for some time due to California's slow counting of mail ballots.  538 is currently estimating D+37, or a split of 232-203.  They're also keeping a running status of the uncalled races at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-16-races-still-too-close-to-call/.

[ajc0918]

Sinema nets 7k votes from Pima

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sinema nets 7k votes from Pima

HOT DAMN

[Baki]

Wherever the votes that have just come in are from, they put Sinema in a 9000 vote lead.

[pppolitics]

Pima Country just dropped some ballots!

[KingSweden]

Sinema nets 7k votes from Pima

Whoa

[Oryxslayer]

I answered my Question for the AZ state senate the breakdown is 17-13 Republican right now, but 5 Reps are in close races. One is 51.5-48.5, another is 50.5 -49.5.

The state house uses MMD, so that is harder to calc.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Pima Country just dropped some ballots!

Are there more or that's all from them?

[User157088589849]

LONG WAY TO GO.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060688348321378307

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060696957843193857

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4


CA-39:  Too many numbers, too many counties.

[Gass3268]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Yup, California is gonna be a Democratic sweep.

[CellarDoor]

Pima Country just dropped some ballots!

Are there more or that's all from them?

There should still be like ~80K Pima ballots left to count.

[IceSpear]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

Congrats Rep-elect Rouda! Congrats Timmy! Goodbye Rohrabacher (R-Moscow)!

[libertpaulian]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

[Sestak]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

He just said he's working on it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

Porter won 61% of this batch!

[user12345]

The fact that Sinema is in the lead and the Green Party candidate is getting over 2% shows that AZ is going to be competitive in 2020.

[Oryxslayer]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

He just said he's working on it.

Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39.

[libertpaulian]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

He just said he's working on it.

Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39.

Is CA like AZ in which the "late earlies" tend to be left-leaning?

[Sestak]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

He just said he's working on it.

Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39.

Is CA like AZ in which the "late earlies" tend to be left-leaning?

Yes.

[libertpaulian]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

He just said he's working on it.

Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39.

Is CA like AZ in which the "late earlies" tend to be left-leaning?

Yes.

Wow.  If these trends hold, Calvert and Hunter would be the last SoCal Republicans standing.