Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 207403 times)
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #3000 on: November 08, 2018, 06:13:03 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 04:34:53 PM
The time factor was an important part of the 2000 presidential recount controversy.  There was a need to get it resolved quickly since Florida's electoral votes would be decisive.  But that doesn't exist here, since there's plenty of precedent for a Senate recount to drag on long past the start of the new Congress.

Al Franken was not seated until June 2009.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3001 on: November 08, 2018, 06:14:48 PM »


I love FL.
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7,052,770
Harry
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« Reply #3002 on: November 08, 2018, 06:15:31 PM »
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 06:03:55 PM
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 05:58:55 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:58:30 PM
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 05:56:50 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:56:23 PM
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 05:54:11 PM
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 05:52:59 PM
Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area.

All of Broward has a larger dropoff than everywhere else. Not just the FL-24 area - that's just where it was most extreme.

In FL-24, there's a 10% dropoff in total votes between Gov and Sen. This is 3.6% in FL-20 and FL-22 and 2.8% in FL-23.

...and under 1% in every other county in Florida.

If you want to go that route, then correcting the total Broward error likely benefits Scott, not Nelson.

What makes you say that?

Scott had more undervotes countywide than Nelson, especially in FL-22 and FL-23.

Neither has undervotes. Undervotes mean the race doesnt have a vote recorded.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #3003 on: November 08, 2018, 06:16:01 PM »
Quote from: Vox Populi on November 08, 2018, 06:06:12 PM
Anyone who has watched Arizona before knows that McSally is basically done for once the rest comes in.

Well, Maricopa County is 60% of the voting population and is more Republican leaning than the rest of the state.

Pima County is 17% of the voting population.

If Sinema is still head ahead in Maricopa County and after counting is done, it's unlikely that she would lose.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #3004 on: November 08, 2018, 06:16:39 PM »
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 08, 2018, 06:14:48 PM


I love FL.
Oh cool anecdote with no evidence. Let's run with it
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3005 on: November 08, 2018, 06:18:04 PM »
Quote from: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 06:16:39 PM
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 08, 2018, 06:14:48 PM


I love FL.
Oh cool anecdote with no evidence. Let's run with it

I wouldn't consider Marc Caputo anecdotal....but sure whatever.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #3006 on: November 08, 2018, 06:20:57 PM »
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 08, 2018, 06:18:04 PM
Quote from: Pandaguineapig on November 08, 2018, 06:16:39 PM
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 08, 2018, 06:14:48 PM


I love FL.
Oh cool anecdote with no evidence. Let's run with it

I wouldn't consider Marc Caputo anecdotal....but sure whatever.
Yeah a box that doesn't look like it has votes in it and probably doesn't have votes in it (the odds that a single precinct has a box full of provisional ballots is highly unlikely)
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #3007 on: November 08, 2018, 06:21:47 PM »

Broward county Dems might cost us 2018, just like Palm Beach Dems cost us 2000.
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SPQR
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« Reply #3008 on: November 08, 2018, 06:23:46 PM »
Quote from: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 05:30:15 PM
Quote from: westroopnerd on November 08, 2018, 05:26:24 PM

God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner?

My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state.  I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with.  Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others.

That's true in general, I'm afraid.

I've been assisting the counting of votes since 2013 as a list representative in Italy, and I've seen terrible things and had great discussions with poll workers ashamingly unaware of any electoral rule.
Ever since then I am much more wary when voting, and always hope that my vote gets counted right.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #3009 on: November 08, 2018, 06:25:54 PM »
Apparently some of the Arizona #’s are trickling in and it’s good for Sinema
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3010 on: November 08, 2018, 06:27:37 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2018, 05:57:49 PM


This is where we are right now in the senate expectations game.

Rick Scott thinks that an accurate count is stealing the election.  If nothing else, he certainly fits right in with Florida politics.
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RI
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« Reply #3011 on: November 08, 2018, 06:31:53 PM »
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 06:30:55 PM
Arizona margin has been cut from 27K to 17K

The margin was 16K yesterday...
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BigSerg
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« Reply #3012 on: November 08, 2018, 06:32:32 PM »
Serious question and I want serious answers. How likely is it that this will reach the supreme court?
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Sestak
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« Reply #3013 on: November 08, 2018, 06:32:40 PM »
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 06:31:53 PM
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 06:30:55 PM
Arizona margin has been cut from 27K to 17K

The margin was 16K yesterday...

Sh*t, made a mistake, my bad.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #3014 on: November 08, 2018, 06:33:35 PM »
2,653 votes were added (I believe from Yuma) and Sinema picked up 295 votes.  This is a county McSally is leading 53%-44%. 
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Thatkat04
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« Reply #3015 on: November 08, 2018, 06:34:05 PM »
Quote from: CellarDoor on November 08, 2018, 06:33:35 PM
2,653 votes were added (I believe from Yuma) and Sinema picked up 295 votes.  This is a county McSally is leading 53%-44%. 

Thats encouraging.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #3016 on: November 08, 2018, 06:34:07 PM »
I don't think the big AZ votes have started coming in yet. A few trickled in earlier. Unless someone has a link
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #3017 on: November 08, 2018, 06:36:02 PM »
Quote from: RI on November 08, 2018, 06:34:07 PM
I don't think the big AZ votes have started coming in yet. A few trickled in earlier. Unless someone has a link

Not yet.  Expecting 100K votes to drop from Maricopa county in 25 minutes.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3018 on: November 08, 2018, 06:44:10 PM »
Florida is an absolute mess, as always.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #3019 on: November 08, 2018, 06:45:13 PM »

Applies to more than just its politics/elections infrastructure
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henster
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« Reply #3020 on: November 08, 2018, 06:49:35 PM »
Maricopa is dropping at 5 right?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3021 on: November 08, 2018, 06:53:30 PM »

Between 5/5:30 apparently, which is in 7-37 minutes.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #3022 on: November 08, 2018, 06:55:16 PM »

All of it, or just some?
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Thatkat04
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« Reply #3023 on: November 08, 2018, 06:56:09 PM »

About 100,000 votes. So about a fifth of it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3024 on: November 08, 2018, 06:56:24 PM »

I heard rumors of under 100K, which is about 1/5 of the expected ballots uncounted.
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