Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Badger]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats.

The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman.

Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew.

You shouldn't be. Van Drew's opponent is more of an abominable embarrassment than Trump, and that's saying a lot.

How else can you call the people who voted for Grossmann other than deplorables?
And  of course pundits will accuse Democrats that they don't do enough to reach out to them.

A substantial number can be deemed collaborators instead of outright deplorables. They're the type who May disagree with what Grossman and Trump say - - that is what they believe - - but they will overcome such reservations because those candidates being deplorable on such matters is not as important to them as issues like taxes and spending. It's not much of a defense for them, trust me.

The best analogy I can give is that of the millions of Germans who voted for Hitler, only a tiny percentage actually participated in Torchlight parades or kristallnacht . Most simply didn't want the Socialists to take over, and we're willing to accept Hitler to stop that from occurring.

To put it mildly, that's not an excuse.

[wbrocks67]

Nelson is only down by 21,000 now. Woah. He could actually pull this out.

Also, why do we think Tester was able to get by, even breaking 50%, while McCaskill, Donnelly couldn't?

TBH, there WAS a blue wave besides MO and IN. Even in ND, Heitkamp's -10 loss is pretty good for her, all things considered. I mean even NV's +5 margin is pretty shocking.

[OneJ]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?!

I thought this was quite obvious.

Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason.

I know I’ve been a little pessimistic and have been wrong on some things but does anyone seriously think that Bill Nelson has a snowballs chance in hell. All the votes are counted?...

Just because the news sites say "100% in" doesn't mean all the votes have been counted. Despite being "100% in" it went from 50.4-49.6 to 50.2-49.8 and now to 50.1-49.9. Nobody is exactly sure how many votes are left to count.

Another example of this was in NE-02 where Bacon led Eastman 54-46 at "100%" then Bacon's margin went down to 52-48 still at "100%". Now it's 3.2 points.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, DCCC messed up with pulling out of NE-02. Eastman is only down by 2-3 with a few precincts left.

In terms of 2020, the big swings in PA, MI, WI, and NV bode well for 2020. The suburbs and cities truly turned against Trump. He cannot survive off the rural white base without the suburbs.

MO and IN were unfortunate, but the 6-7 loss isn't THAT bad all things considered, considering Trump won by 20 in both those states. That means Dems did come out, just not enough to win/overcome the R lean of the state.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ?

[wbrocks67]

Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ?

Can't imagine that winning campaigns do this.

Hoping that Sinema can pull out the win. Would be very satisfying to see McSally lose, on top of Sinema being one of the best recruits this cycle.

7pm EST tonight is when more results come in, right?

[MillennialModerate]

Nelson is only down by 21,000 now. Woah. He could actually pull this out.

For him to pull it out they’d have to be like 60k odd outstanding votes

[Brittain33]

How else can you call the people who voted for Grossmann other than deplorables?
And  of course pundits will accuse Democrats that they don't do enough to reach out to them.

Given how few people follow news well and how undercovered and underadvertised this race was and how uneducated this district's population is, it's possible a large number of Grossman's voters never even heard about his views and just voted party line.

[BundouYMB]

Scott's lead is down to 21K from 30K yesterday morning as ultra-Democrat Broward absentees and early votes continue to trickle in. How Democratic are they? The last batch of 8k counted cut Scott's lead by 4k. There are probably around 40k ballots left to count in Broward, so stay tuned. Palm Beach County should have around 15k ballots to count too.

Moreover, someone on a different forum observed there was an abnormally huge number of people who voted in the gubernatorial race but not the senatorial race in Broward. To be precise: about 20k people voted for Governor but not for Senate. In every other county in Florida the gap was below 2k. There might be some sort of error in counting that a machine recount would expose. That would almost definitely hand the win to Nelson. However, that's far from a certain scenario.

This race is far from over yet.

[Gass3268]

The gap still looks a bit too wide for Nelson, but if there are a lot more votes to be counted, he may actually have a chance. I'd want to see how much is actually left out, and where it is.

Anyway, I'm happy to see that more posters are joining the "NV is not a Toss-Up" club.

Nelson is probably going to get to a hand count recount. He needs the margin to get below .25%. Harder to see that happen with the Governors race.

[J. J.]

Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ?

McSally has actually gained a bit.  It went from a 0.9 to 1.0 for McSally, with Maricopa reporting.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Apparently the GOP has filed a lawsuit in AZ?

McSally has actually gained a bit.  It went from a 0.9 to 1.0 for McSally, with Maricopa reporting.

Totally relevant with the question asked above.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060522275030601730

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060522275030601730

Great! Woodall is only up ~1,000 in GA-06. I wonder how many absentee and late votes are left?

[wbrocks67]

OMG. Karen Handel going down is amazing. She's also legitimately horrible and extremely bigotted.

[ajc0918]

OMG. Karen Handel going down is amazing. She's also legitimately horrible and extremely bigotted.

RIP Karen

[IceSpear]

Remember when Weak Candidate™ Lucy McBath made that race likely/safe R? LOL!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm old enough to remember the hot takes in the GA-06 special that if Handel won, she'd lock down the seat for Republicans for years to come.

[Zaybay]

Wow, the lady screaming Gun Control that everyone thought was a weak candidate won? How surprising, its almost like she had more issues and more dimensions than Atlas thought she did. I mean, how could she win, she wasnt some moderate, centrist like Ossoff! Thats who we need for these districts, people who can win seats easily for the D party, like Jeff Van Drew! /s

[Panda Express]

*One week ago*

 Karen Handel: Whew, that was a close election I squeaked out against Ossof last year. But I'm finally getting into the groove of this whole "Representative" thing. I've just put down a lease on a place here in DC for me and my family to live, I'm making friends and connections and I've found this nice little coffee shop. DC is starting to feel like home! I sure hope nothing happens that forces me to move back to Atlanta - I just forwarded all my subscriptions here!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1060525302915440646?s=21

He also said that TX-23 is Likely R.

[Tintrlvr]

Why toss-up in NJ-03?

Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07?

[Zaybay]

Why toss-up in NJ-03?

Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07?

I think they already called that.

[Gass3268]

Why toss-up in NJ-03?

Otherwise I agree. But what about GA-07?

I think I saw somewhere that there might be some votes left, not sure.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1060525302915440646?s=21

He also said that TX-23 is Likely R.

TX-23 is so close, the difference is less than 700 votes, I'm really hoping that one can still flip.
Yep, NC-09 is gone, McCready conceded yesterday. This is what incredibly egregious gerrymandering will get you, same as in Ohio. No flips in a 30+ seat change year in two of the top ten largest states in the country.