Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Storr]

Xochitl pulling it out in the end was a nice surprise. Here's to hoping the majority can get to 230+!

[Alabama_Indy10]

Tester has broken 50% the first time ever in his elections.

It’s the haircut

[progressive85]

HOLY sh**t did anyone See HAYS County texas. IT WENT FROM 46.2 46.0 Trump-Clinton to 57.4 41 Beto Cruz. That is a ing 16 point swing in an Austin Suburb.

The swings in the Texas House races are so hard that it actually looks like the results were hacked and those aren't real. 

for example: Kenny Marchant barely won re-election against somebody named McDowell. lol

[Xing]

Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses.

Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean?

[Zaybay]

Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses.

Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean?

Based on previous election results and the primary, they will lean D.

[Hindsight was 2020]

When should Arizona results come in?

[henster]

Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses.

Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean?

I would say he is a juggernaut, his voting record is well to the left of the state, not only voted against Kavanaugh but Gorsuch as well. And unlike other deep Trump state Sens he really went to bat against Trump.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tester has broken 50% the first time ever in his elections.

It’s the haircut

[IceSpear]

CNN has been a mess this election. Having to uncall so many calls is embarrassing.

Dems picking up NM-02 is awesome! Steve Pearce vacates his district to run statewide, gets crushed, then his district flips Dem once per decade. lol

[Pollster]

Trump and Don Jr were furiously committed to unseating Tester and Tester responded with the biggest win of his career so far.

[ON Progressive]

Xochitl Torres Small was one of my favourite House candidates this cycle. Very happy to see her win.

[henster]

Is Jared Golden basically heavily favored at this point, how much would he have to be trailing by before RCV for things to get dicey?

[MT Treasurer]

No one is denying that Tester is a strong incumbent, but he also benefited from a very Democratic-friendly environment, an extremely energized Democratic base (particularly in Missoula, Bozeman, Helena, and Great Falls, since most rural counties actually swung to Rosendale), poor tactical decisions by the NRSC, a nasty primary which weakened Rosendale, a highly competent Democratic state party, and a mediocre/meh (although hardly terrible) opponent. Take away even one of these factors and this could have been a real race, and you’re kidding yourself if you think he would have been heavily favored even in a Clinton midterm.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think that  SALT cap  didn't work out so well for NJ Republicans. 3 lost, 1 won, and 1 is trailing.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

[pppolitics]

Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses.

Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean?

I would say he is a juggernaut, his voting record is well to the left of the state, not only voted against Kavanaugh but Gorsuch as well. And unlike other deep Trump state Sens he really went to bat against Trump.

A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

RIP Greedo
RIP Rossi fanboys

Remember when Rossi was such a Strong Candidate™ that he would beat Weak Candidate™ Shrill Schrier even in a Democratic tsunami because he carried the district a decade ago?

[MT Treasurer]

A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again.

Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic...

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace.

[Holmes]

A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again.

Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic...

Maybe Connecticut is a better comparison? It has a Republican streak statewide in the way Montana does a Democratic one.

[Nyvin]

A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again.

Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic...

Maybe Connecticut is a better comparison? It has a Republican streak statewide in the way Montana does a Democratic one.

No, Rhode Island is almost perfect, similar PVI's and population, and it has those "moderate dems" quirks in it's voting behavior too.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

Well we've finally taken Dave Reichert's congressional district. This was the source of a very guttural and heart-wrenching wail of disappointment from a coworker of mine after election 2008. But now, the ghost of Darcy Burner's political career can finally Rest In Peace.

Ah, I remember the Darcy Burner days. Luckily her losses happened in otherwise amazing nights for Democrats, so it was hard to feel too bad about it.

[Webnicz]

When should Arizona results come in?

Tomorrow at 5pm!!!

**For those who want data now**
Im looking at the results that have been published by precinct and I have to say, I am more impressed than I was intending to be - in regards to Sinema making inroads in the East Valley (CD5) which is a very middle class/college educated trumpland

 I suppose I will share with you one of my arizona election/data secrets.
These are pdf's of the 2018 election and 2016 election. You can search a precinct individually in each to compare. I dont expect most of you to know precincts off the bat so heres some you can search for reference(In parenthesis is the early vote advantage):

the ctrl+F search method will be a great friend while doing this

Lantana Canyon(+11.9R)
Nightingale(+19.2R)
***Sun Groves*** (+11R) - take a look at this one
Bayshore (+14.2R)
Highland(+33.3R) - do not confuse with the "desert highland" precinct

you get the gist
keep in mind the numbers that are reporting rn in maricopa are early votes only and e-day votes which averaged +9.2R for maricopa county

2016 election precinct results :
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionarchives/2016/11-08-2016%20Final%20Precinct%20Report.pdf

2018 early/eday precinct results:
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/media/Detail.pdf

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It says something about the "urbanization" of the Dems that of the GOP seats remaining in Oklahoma, OK-1 (centred upon Tulsa) was the closest--OK-2, at one point Oklahoma's "token Dem" seat, is now 2nd best for GOP.

Oh, and while there's talk of AOC as the youngest elected female, there's also the matter of Shalala as oldest--and very nearly, the oldest of anyone, ever...

https://history.house.gov/HistoricalHighlight/Detail/15032400044?ret=True

Ironically enough, Tulsa and OKC were Jimmy Carter's worst areas of the state in 1976, when he won a majority of counties in OK.

[NOVA Green]

Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days.

Yes--- Washington SoS office currently has it at + 13,070 R lead....

Clark County--- (Largest Vote Bank in the CD)

Estimated 30k votes OUT

Currently a 51-49% D Lead.... (These margins will likely increase with later voters).

Not implausible at all to see a 60-40 % D breakdown (+6k D)

Cowlitz County --- 2nd largest by vote share is heavily Ancestral DEM (Longview and Camas) and currently + 3.6k R (55-45 R), and shift workers out there tend to be Younger

Estimated 10k Votes OUT

Not implausible to see a 50-50 split....

Lewis County: =- 3rd largest by Vote share and politically reactionary for over 100 Years where local business leaders murdered Four Labor Activists in cold blood in Centralia, as part of an orchestrated campaign of mob violence, that helped trigger the rise of the "Red Scare" and Palmer Raids of the late 1910s/ early 1920s).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_massacre_(Washington)

Estimated 6.8k votes OUT

Was (68-32 R) in ballots counted to date.... I would expect PUBS to gain numbers out of Lewis County, and even a 55-45 R number still adds +2k R raw votes.

So although it might seem like an early call, reality is that DEMs will likely need to win a HUGE % of outstanding votes from Clark, win 55-45 in outstanding ballots from Cowlitz, *HOPE* the outstanding ballots from Lewis are much less overwhelmingly PUB than the first dump numbers...

Additionally there is a giant wildcard in the WA-SoS has ~30k estimated voters as a placeholder.... we don't *know* the exact number yet---- so yes I think the call was premature, considering the estimated % of votes outstanding vs margins, but obviously the PUBs still have a lead on this race.