Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[MT Treasurer]

Honestly, I feel a little sorry for Kathleen Williams. I didn’t support her or anything, but she didn’t deserve to do eight points worse than Tester, and it can’t all be chalked up to causes related to her campaign. She could have run a flawless campaign and there still would have been a ton of Trump/Tester/Gianforte voters. She might even lose by more than Rob Quist, which honestly makes me a little uneasy.

[lfromnj]

Honestly, I feel a little sorry for Kathleen Williams. I didn’t support her or anything, but she didn’t deserve to do eight points worse than Tester, and it can’t all be chalked up to causes related to her campaign. She could have run a flawless campaign and there still would have been a ton of Trump/Tester/Gianforte voters. She might even lose by more than Rob Quist, which honestly makes me a little uneasy.

I think she might have saved Jon Tester by increasing progressive turnout?

[Fubart Solman]

The county map of CA-Sen seems like the most definitive refutation of the rational choice model of proximity voting I've ever seen.

Part of me wishes that De Leon had won simply because of how funny it would be that Republicans chose someone to the left of DiFi.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well I officially have to apologize for all the s*** I've talked about Florida over the years. You're alright, Florida. Keep it up for 2020 and stay weird.

RT

I was actually looking for that post so I could quote it and take it back in its entirety. Thanks for finding it. I deserve to be mocked for it. It's possible that I jinxed the race by writing this. Florida sucks. It will always suck. It's awful to the point that I hate it more than I ever have previously-that's a lot of hate right there.

[Brittain33]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats.

The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman.

[lfromnj]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats.

The thing here is that this is the kind of district Dems have tanked in since 2012. It’s not metropolitan at all. I attribute the closeness to the fundamentals. The district was safe because Van Drew was supposed to be unbeatable titanium and the Republican was horrible, but it turns out VD wasn’t such a Superman.

Im still annoyed that the reps spent millions against Sherril only to lose by 12 and then gave up 3 days after the primary for Van Drew.

[Nyvin]

Steve Knight (R, CA-25) conceded to Katie Hill.

[Gass3268]

Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County.

[lfromnj]

Does anyone else think that Mitt Romney's win in Utah was a little underwhelming? Barley getting 60% and losing two counties he won when he ran in 2012, plus maybe an outside shot of losing Salt Lake County.

yeah of course it was.  Mcadams looks like a slight favorite to win and Ghorbani only lost by 20. Imagine mormons actually becoming democrat coz of Trump lol.

[Brittain33]

Looks like NM-2 may follow NJ-3 into the blue column.

[Gass3268]

Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060347112213360640

[Tintrlvr]

Looks like NM-2 may follow NJ-3 into the blue column.

Ha, another revoked call by CNN! They even still have it called for Herrell on their results map despite having updated their results to show Torres Small up 50.7-49.3.

[adma]

It says something about the "urbanization" of the Dems that of the GOP seats remaining in Oklahoma, OK-1 (centred upon Tulsa) was the closest--OK-2, at one point Oklahoma's "token Dem" seat, is now 2nd best for GOP.

Oh, and while there's talk of AOC as the youngest elected female, there's also the matter of Shalala as oldest--and very nearly, the oldest of anyone, ever...

https://history.house.gov/HistoricalHighlight/Detail/15032400044?ret=True

[ajc0918]

Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060347112213360640

A path to victory for Nelson exists but it's narrow and likely involves provisional ballots.

[Pericles]

Steve Knight (R, CA-25) conceded to Katie Hill.

Yeah!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060347112213360640

A path to victory for Nelson exists but it's narrow and likely involves provisional ballots.

Is there any estimate of how many outstanding ballots are left in FL at this point?

[wbrocks67]

Rick Scott's lead is down to only 26k now in FL. It sounds like Nelson may have the votes in the end.

[Tintrlvr]

Also, on the topic of possible revoked calls: I'm not certain Valadao is out of the woods in CA-21. Latino-heavy districts in California tend to be the ones with the strongest late-votes advantage for the Democrats, and he's already underperforming expectations somewhat. Would be unlikely but not impossible for the final result to have Cox narrowly ahead. Cox would surely be the biggest nobody to win a race.

[Sestak]

Looks like NM-2 may follow NJ-3 into the blue column.

XOCHITLMENTUM!!!!1111!!!1!

Looks like a reasonably good chance to break 230.

+40 probably isn’t happening, though.

[KingSweden]

Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060347112213360640

Hmm. Elias saved Roy Cooper’s bacon two years ago... doubt he can pull another rabbit out of a hat

[ajc0918]

Could Golden still win in ME-02 with automatic runoff?

[Sestak]

Could Golden still win in ME-02 with automatic runoff?

I think Golden’s favored, actually.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Election officials in NM are saying Torres-Small won. New Mexico has an all-democratic delegation now.

[wbrocks67]

Not only did Andy Kim pull ahead at the last minute, but so did Torres Small:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-mexico-house-district-2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

People are beginning to call MN-02 for the Democrats. Wow.

Angie Craig really came back from winning already lol.

*NM

:/