Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

Creepin' Corey better resign now than face a Blanchein' in 2020.

[Storr]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

Creepin' Corey better resign now than face a Blanchein' in 2020.

I'm trying to not quote people as much without having a response to the previous post. But, this is hilarious.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.

Is ME-02 now permanently Trumpified? Golden is down.

[ON Progressive]

Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.

Maine counts by town, which means it takes a century because some towns are way slower at transmitting results than others.

[Kodak]

Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.

Is ME-02 now permanently Trumpified? Golden is down.

He's down by less than 1% and RCV will probably save him.

[Politician]

Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.

It's at 88% on NYT.

[lfromnj]

HOLY sh**t did anyone See HAYS County texas. IT WENT FROM 46.2 46.0 Trump-Clinton to 57.4 41 Beto Cruz. That is a ing 16 point swing in an Austin Suburb.

[Zaybay]

Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.

Is ME-02 now permanently Trumpified? Golden is down.

Nope, RCV comes to save the day.

[Devout Centrist]

Eh, could've been a better night, but I'm still feeling good with the results.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

As a map nerd, I'm still annoyed about this one. I thought with Clark County turnout, it would go blue, thus delivering the Dems every Pacific-adjacent West Coast seat.

[DavidB.]

Well I officially have to apologize for all the s*** I've talked about Florida over the years. You're alright, Florida. Keep it up for 2020 and stay weird.

RT

[IceSpear]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

As a map nerd, I'm still annoyed about this one. I thought with Clark County turnout, it would go blue, thus delivering the Dems every Pacific-adjacent West Coast seat.

With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction.

[Tintrlvr]

Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.

Is ME-02 now permanently Trumpified? Golden is down.

Instant run-off. Golden will likely win on transfer votes from independent Tiffany Bond, who ran a primarily anti-Poliquin campaign, even if he is narrowly down on the first round.

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

As a map nerd, I'm still annoyed about this one. I thought with Clark County turnout, it would go blue, thus delivering the Dems every Pacific-adjacent West Coast seat.

With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction.

I agree. NYT hasn't called it; did CNN? I was just thinking in response to this post that Herrera-Beutler is not a certainty for reelection yet. Late ballots in WA skew as Democratic as in CA, though a 5-point margin is tougher to overcome than what certain CA Dems may manage.

[Storr]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

As a map nerd, I'm still annoyed about this one. I thought with Clark County turnout, it would go blue, thus delivering the Dems every Pacific-adjacent West Coast seat.

With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction.

If it means much, Politico hasn't called WA-03 yet.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

[IceSpear]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

As a map nerd, I'm still annoyed about this one. I thought with Clark County turnout, it would go blue, thus delivering the Dems every Pacific-adjacent West Coast seat.

With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction.

If it means much, Politico hasn't called WA-03 yet.

Yeah, neither has NYT. I'm thinking it was a mistake for CNN to do so. It would be far from the first time they had to retract a call and the other person ended up winning.

[IceSpear]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

[Dr. Arch]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Suburbantastrophe

[lfromnj]

Andy Kim officially took the lead.

Nice! 11-1!

Even Chris Smith got a far closer race than he's used to. It's amazing NJ Dems managed to do so well despite Menendez's toxicity.

Big failure by Van Drew to barely win by 5 in a so called Safe Seat. Like ik pundits aren't the best but I generally do take their calls on the safe seats.

[Comrade Funk]

Ed Case beat Cam Cavasso 73-23. So much for Case under 60 LMAO

[Calthrina950]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

You are right about Gardner. Looking at Jared Polis's county win map, it is clear to me that Gardner's chances in 2020 are very low at this point. Stapleton managed to narrowly win Conejos and Las Animas Counties, which Trump carried in 2016. He got the typical margins for Republicans in rural Colorado, and in Douglas County (which he won by 16), El Paso County (which he won by 19), Weld County (which he won by 23), and in Mesa County (which he won by 26). Polis, however, won Adams County by 11, Jefferson County by 12, Arapahoe County by 16, and Broomfield by 20 percentage points. He carried Larimer County (Fort Collins) by 12 points, and got 76% in both Denver and Boulder Counties.

Polis also managed to flip Chaffee and Garfield Counties, counties Trump won in 2016, canceling out Stapleton's minor pickups in far Southern Colorado. Moreover, he managed to hold Pueblo and Huerfano Counties, which Stapleton thought he could win. He also got over 70% in Pitkin and San Miguel Counties, home to Aspen and Telluride respectively. It is clear at this point that the Denver suburbs are firmly in the Likely Democratic category, and that winning by double digits in Weld, Mesa, Douglas, and El Paso Counties is nowhere near enough for Republicans. Their gains in Southern Colorado are insignificant, and won't help them either. If Gardner loses by as much as Stapleton did in Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Jefferson, and Larimer in 2020, then he is done for.

[Bojack Horseman]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Did Barbara Cegavske lose? NYT still has her up under 1pt with 99% in.

Sadly her Democratic opponent conceded. That's the only statewide office Democrats lost, which is too bad because if he had won, 2018 in Nevada would have done a complete 180 from 2014.

[YE]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Did Barbara Cegavske lose? NYT still has her up under 1pt with 99% in.

Sadly her Democratic opponent conceded. That's the only statewide office Democrats lost, which is too bad because if he had won, 2018 in Nevada would have done a complete 180 from 2014.

His opponent conceded and I don't think there's anything more than a few absentees left.

[OneJ]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

As a map nerd, I'm still annoyed about this one. I thought with Clark County turnout, it would go blue, thus delivering the Dems every Pacific-adjacent West Coast seat.

With how many votes are left to count in WA, I'm surprised they called it for Herrera Beutler. Especially since late ballots tend to skew D in Washington. It likely won't be enough for Long to win, but it seems at least possible. She could also very well end up surviving by only the skin of her teeth, which was my prediction.

If it means much, Politico hasn't called WA-03 yet.

Yeah, neither has NYT. I'm thinking it was a mistake for CNN to do so. It would be far from the first time they had to retract a call and the other person ended up winning.

Lol. CNN just did that last night for IL-13.

[Crumpets]

Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days.