Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Haha, Hurd and Curbelo going down is satisfying at least. All the pundits acted like those were Safe R seats because of #candidatequality

And Shalala would lose because #CandidateQualityMatters.

It was closer than it shouldn't be, but yeah, the results tonight should pretty clearly indicate to everyone that incumbency and candidate quality are increasingly less and less important. Anyone who wants to emphasize those things over fundamentals and the national environment needs to re-think.

[Hammy]

From twitter



So functionally the GOP retains the House too

[Storr]

The only statewide race in Nevada Republicans are in the lead for is Sec. of State Cegavske, who is the only statewide incumbent running for reelection.
http://www.silverstateelection.com/NVOther/

[IceSpear]

"Safe R" NV-02 is closer to flipping than "toss up" NV-03 and NV-04! LMFAO @ the pundits!

[Snipee356]

How are the California races looking?

[Tintrlvr]

Holy crap, the Texas gerrymander almost collapsed.

I haven't looked at the state legislative results, but given the Congressional and Senate results I am sure there must be some shocking GOP losses and surprising close calls all over the TX megacities.

I see the Democrats knocked off two incumbent Republican State Senators (Burton and Huffines), and I see at least 7 Republican incumbents who lost their State House seats, plus some close Democratic wins in open seats that I bet were gains (but I'm not familiar enough with Texas to say).

[Fubart Solman]

California races are going to take a while to call. Ballots postmarked by today have until Friday to reach their respective county offices.

[lfromnj]

So, whats the latest n Montana? It seems to be the last open senate seat up for grabs tonight since Arizona won't likely be called for another day or two.

I think Tester will win and it won't even be that close.  The remaining vote is heavily weighted toward Gallatin and Missoula.

Big portion of Missoula is left. He can make 15,000 votes there & he is down by 4000. This is not hard. Gianforte is up 23,000 so he is possibly safe. He will make it by 10,000+ or so.

Dems need to get Bullock to run for the Senate & need to recruit a strong candidate for the House. Montana looks promising !

I actually wondered why Montana survived and there was no dem collapse in the polls compared to other trump states. It was generally accepted that Tester had a narrow lead and when I saw Indiana I knew Mcaskill was doomed immediatly and I was writing off Tester too but it looks like he is still in the game. Why did Tester survive(Or atleast looks ok) while Mcaskill and Donnely got screwed over.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Will Hurd's loss means that the NYT Poll was a crap.

They can't poll Hispanics. That hardly makes them unique though, basically nobody can actually poll Hispanics. Similar problem to Nevada polling.

[YE]

The only statewide race in Nevada Republicans are in the lead for is Sec. of State Cegavske, who is the only statewide incumbent running for reelection.
http://www.silverstateelection.com/NVOther/

He's done since a fair chunk of CD-01 and CD-04 is out.

[gf20202]

Another query. Does anyone have news on what the national popular vote share for the house is? How many points did the Democrats win by?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

This has it at 7.1, but that will likely go up.

[Tintrlvr]

Another query. Does anyone have news on what the national popular vote share for the house is? How many points did the Democrats win by?

Currently, it is 50.8-47.6 for the Democrats on NYT's website with actual votes, but as per usual the Democrats will add at least 2-3 points to that margin over the next week or so as California counts.

I think they are not counting uncontested seats, of which there were a lot more on the Democratic side than the Republican side, so that figure is also probably skewed around a point or two to the Republicans.

[Shadows]

Absolutely. Thanks to Hillary Clinton. Dems should have won FL, WI, PA, NC, IN & MO. All 6 were winnable. If atleast 3 or 4 would have been won, then maybe their would be a Dem Senate & no Kavanaugh, no Tax cuts for Billionaires.

2016 was unforgivable !

I didn't vote for Hillary Clinton either (in the Dem primary), but the voters did. Both in the primary and the general election (and I voted for her in that). And likewise the voters voted for Democrats to control the Senate in 2016.

So don't blame the voters for the failures of the American electoral system, it is not their fault.

Has nothing to do with voters. For one to address Gerrymandering, Dems have to do amazing down-ballot. No use cribbing about the system. it is what it is. Then accept defeat & say nothing is possible in the present system.

The point is 2016 performance should have been better. No Dem should have lost WI, PA & MI to Trump which effectively cost 2 Senate Seats. If there was a better candidate, then OH, FL, NC, MO & IN Senate seats would be in play.

Democrats could have won 8 more seats & would have had 59 freakin' seats now. That was supposed to be a blowout year vs a candidate like Trump. And the top of the ticket dragged everyone down.

Anyways no use cribbing about 2016. But Dems should have 4 -5 more Senate Seats atleast & would have control of both houses today. There was no electoral issue with Senate Seats. It was straight Popular votes in states like WI or PA. No use cribbing Dakotas having 4 seats vs 2 for Cal !

[lfromnj]

So what were the best and worst gerrymanders this cycle

Best- North Carolina- Absolutely Brutal and dems failed to pick up 1.


Worst- I might have to go with Texas which almost completely collapsed under Beto Mania but New Jersey is another one but that isn't a full gerrymander either.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It would be more fair if Puerto Rico, DC, Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and the Marianas (Guam + Northern Marianas) were states...

Yep. I don't think that is the absolute ideal solution - there are other things that would be better in principle. But these are the sorts of ideas that are going to increasingly enter the national conversation. And they are increasingly going to be the #1 goal of Dems, simply because Dems cannot ever do anything else unless and until the issue of the lack of representative democracy in the USA is addressed.

[Storr]

So what were the best and worst gerrymanders this cycle

Best- North Carolina- Absolutely Brutal and dems failed to pick up 1.


Worst- I might have to go with Texas which almost completely collapsed under Beto Mania.

That's what extreme gerrymandering will get you!
But, don't count NC-09 out. 97% reporting with less than a 2,000 vote difference.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest AZ update was really bad for Sinema...she gained nothing out of the remaining Pima vote.
She needs to pray she does signficantly better in the last 1/4 of Maricopa than she did in the rest of it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

McBath has taken the lead.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Dems need to get Bullock to run for the Senate & need to recruit a strong candidate for the House. Montana looks promising !

LMAO at anyone who thinks that "candidate quality" is the issue, even after tonight.

The problem has very little to do with Democrats having or not having "strong candidates."

The magical fairy candidate Bullock is not going to save you. The problem is the fundamental institutional structure of the Senate and the system by which it is elected.

The problem is not that Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill, and Nelson (presumably Nelson, though I guess there is a recount for FL) were "weak candidates." The problem is that voters vote largely irrespective of "candidate strength." They vote on the basis of partisan polarization.

I guess it really would have been better for Tester and Manchin to lose, since you and apparently at least some others still have not gotten it through your head that Dems cannot rely on winning ridiculously deep Red states in the Senate.

[Gass3268]

So what were the best and worst gerrymanders this cycle

Best- North Carolina- Absolutely Brutal and dems failed to pick up 1.


Worst- I might have to go with Texas which almost completely collapsed under Beto Mania.

That's what extreme gerrymandering will get you!
But, don't count NC-09 out. 97% reporting with less than a 2,000 vote difference.

Luckily the Democrats cemented their control of the NCSC and broke the supermajorities in the legislature. These maps should be going down soon.

[Ben.]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

[AndyHogan14]

It would be more fair if Puerto Rico, DC, Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and the Marianas (Guam + Northern Marianas) were states...

Yep. I don't think that is the absolute ideal solution - there are other things that would be better in principle. But these are the sorts of ideas that are going to increasingly enter the national conversation. And they are increasingly going to be the #1 goal of Dems, simply because Dems cannot ever do anything else unless and until the issue of the lack of representative democracy in the USA is addressed.

There's no way it would get the requisite 2/3 in both houses and 3/4 of the states, but it would be nice to strip the Senate of its power and make it more of an advisory body like the Lords in the UK. At the very least, I would like the House to have a say on SCOTUS nominees (hearings are still in the Senate, the House would just get a vote), just like they do for a replacement Vice President and that is something that I think could be done via statute.

[Storr]

McBath has taken the lead.

I want to believe.

[Blair]

What's the verdict on the remaining vote in AZ?

[Calthrina950]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.