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« on: December 01, 2020, 07:54:41 AM » |
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Democrats would probably do around 1-2% better nationally with 100% turnout, higher turnout in 2020 did not help Trump, lower turnout would have been better for him. Higher turnout meant more 3rd party voters from 2016 that tend to be lower propensity voters turned out and most of these went for Biden, more young voters also turned out as turnout was higher.
The AP exit poll has Biden winning new voters 56-42, they were 15% of all voters, that is a 2.1% margin swing right there, without the huge influx of new voters, Trump would have won re-election.
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