How do you think the 2014 elections will go?

[Mr.Phips]

Slight loss in the Senate, slight gains in the House.  Gain in governorships. 

[Mr.Phips]

Obama's 1986. Small Republican gains in the House -- large Republican gains in the Senate, perhaps Republicans even take the majority -- but a reasonably. successful cycle for the Democrats in terms of governorships and state legislatures.

Slight losses in both houses. A good surprise is always possible, but let's be prudent so early before the election.

So is a bad surprise ...

I could very well see this. 

[Mr.Phips]

Obama's 1986. Small Republican gains in the House -- large Republican gains in the Senate, perhaps Republicans even take the majority -- but a reasonably. successful cycle for the Democrats in terms of governorships and state legislatures.

Which states in particular do you think Democrats will do well in? 

Democrats got killed so badly in governorships and state legislatures in 2010, there is really no where to go but up there.  

[Mr.Phips]

I could see the GOP gaining 2-5 Senate seats and 10-20 seats in the House.

The Democrats will not gain seats in either.

10-20 in the House?  Which seats?  Democrats simply dont hold that many vulnerable seats any more. 

[Mr.Phips]

Obama's 1986. Small Republican gains in the House -- large Republican gains in the Senate, perhaps Republicans even take the majority -- but a reasonably. successful cycle for the Democrats in terms of governorships and state legislatures.

Which states in particular do you think Democrats will do well in? 

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Vosem?

State legislatures, I don't really know. But Governorships, from my vantage point right now I can see FL, SC, PA, or MI falling to the Democrats, and many other states, like IA and OH, look vulnerable (and big parts of the rural West have supported Democratic governors before). Really, it's the reverse of the Senate elections; the Democrats have so much more opportunities than the Republicans do that they're bound to do well somewhere. The reverse is the case in the Senate.

For state legislatures, im thinking all across the midwest.  The Iowa House, the Michigan House, the Pensslyvania House(obviously wont flip though) and maybe the Pennsylvania Senate.  The Michigan Senate wont flip, but its bound to see Dem gains, as Republicans picked up a ridiculous number of seats and some in very Democratic areas like Flint and the Western half of the UP. 

[Mr.Phips]

Depends on how the economy is.

If a recession does occur in the next 18 or so months, 2014 will probably be too early to even know if we are in one yet.