Current ticket predictions? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 19, 2024, 04:26:45 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Current ticket predictions? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Current ticket predictions?  (Read 17036 times)
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


« on: April 12, 2014, 11:16:36 PM »

Hillary Clinton/ Michael Bennet
Clinton's the likeliest nominee. Bennet looks like a really good match on paper. The biggest issue is what it means for his seat, but he otherwise has the ideal resume for Hillary Clinton's running mate (White guy in his early 50s, Westerner, Swing State Senator for eight years, Policy expertise on education.)

Rand Paul/ Scott Walker
Paul's more likely to run than any of the other potential top-tier candidates, so he's more likely to be the nominee than Jeb, Christie, Rubio, Walker or Ryan. I have no idea who he would pick as a running mate. Walker seems like a possible fit (a midwestern swing state Governor to show what Republicans in the executive office are like) and he seems to be among the most interested in national office.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2014, 10:42:45 AM »

Yeah, I think Brown or Bennett will be Clinton's running mate.

I'll be very surprised if Rand Paul is the republican nominee. More than anything,  not a good politican.

Rick Perry is goofy, but he can improve and has one of the better governor records.

The problem with predicting the likeliest Republican ticket is that there are so many people who have a plausible chance of being the nominee, even if the odds for any individual candidate may be less than one in six. So there may be an 80+% chance the next Republican presidential nominee is not Rand Paul. And there's an 80+% chance it's not Jeb Bush. And the same may be true of Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, etc. But someone is going to be the nominee.

Perry has the advantage of low expectations, but I think he was too damaged by 2012.

Hilary/Hickenlooper v Jeb/some VP pick. Bennett doesn't want to leave CO unprotected should he leave, Buck will surely vie for that seat.

Bennett will do a cabinet position after election and let a hand picked successor succeed him, al la Salazar.
Bennet's seat is in even more trouble, since Buck wouldn't be the best candidate Republicans have. In the likely event Udall wins reelection, his Republican opponent Cory Gardner will have raised his profile, an asset in an open election.

But Bennet's still better on paper than Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper is in his 60s and recently separated from his wife. Senators are more familiar with national issues, and have less restrictions in presidential campaigns.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2014, 12:56:29 AM »

Paul/ Ayotte seems to be a popular pick. I don't see that happening given Ayotte's hawkish views on foreign policy. If Paul needs to give a sop to the establishment, it probably won't be with McCain and Graham's new buddy.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2014, 01:54:03 PM »

Hillary Clinton/Xavier Beccera OR  Hillary Clinton/ Charlie Crist (If Crist is elected Governor again this year)

Without Clinton

Kirsten Gillibrand/Sherrod Brown OR Heidi Heitkamp/Bill De Blasio

Republicans

Chris Christie/Tom Cotton
Kelly Ayotte/Tom Cotton
Chris Christie/Kelly Ayotte
Ted Cruz/Kelly Ayotte
You seem to be bullish on the idea of a New Yorker on a natonal ticket.

Heitkamp is an intriguing pick since she's a first-term Senator from a very small state. Granted someone effective enough in small rooms to get North Dakota to vote for a Democrat is probably going to impress people in Iowa and New Hampshire, but I'm unaware of her making any moves to raise her national profile which seems necessary at this point.

Cotton doesn't seem to be the likeliest pick for Veep since we don't yet know how much he'll win by in a state that has become very Republican lately. While he has obvious strengths (young, impressive academic and military record) he has plenty of disadvantages (Arkansas is not a swing state, Four years total congressional experience in 2016, no executive experience, white male southerner in party that needs to expand.)
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2014, 05:44:48 PM »

Seems to me like on the Republican side Sen. Ayotte would be such a ticket balancer it'd be hard to ignore.  Her McCain/Graham connection gives her some hawkish foreign policy bona fides and gender balance for the GOP will be more important then regional balance.

I would say she'd be a bone to throw to the establishment wing, but the establishment wing of the GOP always gets their man nominated so that won't be necessary.  The one man who is working hard to run and win over the establishment will be happy to have her on the ticket to nullify the gender wars motif of the last few years.  Sure she's hawkish and he's not but her job is to be his VP, not campaign on her own views.

Rand Paul/Kelly Ayotte

Hilary will have to have a white male counterpart, I think America is ready to elect a black guy or a woman but probably not both at the same time. So Sen. Booker and Gov. Patrick are out as well as Sen's Warren, Gillibrand and Klobuchar.  Furthermore although Hilary is universally known and defined I think she'll look to have someone who is 'outside the beltway' to in some small way balance her 'insiders insider' persona.

McAuliffe is just too well known as a Clintonista to get serious consideration and let's be honest I don't think he has popularity in Virginia to significantly swing the vote there (unless she's running against Uncle Kenny Cuchinelli). So I think we take a long look at the west and realize Gov. Bullock is probably the right guy, unless she grabs Sen. Bennett but I think he looks kind of like a wuss.  Hilary won't have no wuss on her ticket.  Bullock was a former Attorney General, you need that kind of muscle.

HRC/Bullock
Ayotte seems like a solid choice for the Republican ticket, as a female swing state Senator. It would also be a doubling down on new faces, and Republicans elected to statewide office after the end of the Bush administration.

I still don't see her as Rand Paul's top choice, given their differing views on foreign policy. From the polls I've seen it also seems to be an issue where the electorate is on his side. If he has to compromise, it seems better to pick a different topic.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2014, 11:17:23 PM »

Hillary Clinton/ Michael Bennet
Clinton's the likeliest nominee. Bennet looks like a really good match on paper. The biggest issue is what it means for his seat, but he otherwise has the ideal resume for Hillary Clinton's running mate (White guy in his early 50s, Westerner, Swing State Senator for eight years, Policy expertise on education.)

Rand Paul/ Scott Walker
Paul's more likely to run than any of the other potential top-tier candidates, so he's more likely to be the nominee than Jeb, Christie, Rubio, Walker or Ryan. I have no idea who he would pick as a running mate. Walker seems like a possible fit (a midwestern swing state Governor to show what Republicans in the executive office are like) and he seems to be among the most interested in national office.
Slight update months later.

Paul/ Walker remains the likeliest Republican ticket in my mind. Part of it is that Rand Paul is likely to run, and there isn't as obvious a running mate for other nominees.

I think Hillary Clinton/ Julian Castro is the likeliest Democratic ticket. Democrats basically built a running mate for her when they made Castro HUD secretary. He's young, Hispanic, has expertise on various domestic issues, and can be an effective surrogate in the west. Bennet still looks good on paper, but I've barely seen him in the news, and it seems unlikely that a future national candidate would have that low a profile.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 11 queries.