2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1572573036771147777

Just curious is there a different between italicized and unitaclized seats in the chart?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greenberg have D's ahead GCB 50)47

https://democracycorps.com/national-surveys/winning-a-cost-of-living-election/

[wbrocks67]

Greenberg have D's ahead GCB 50)47

https://democracycorps.com/national-surveys/winning-a-cost-of-living-election/

June 2022: R+2 (49-47)
July 2022: D+2 (50-48)
Sept 2022: D+3 (50-47)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1572573036771147777

Just curious is there a different between italicized and unitaclized seats in the chart?

Italics indicate freshman members.

[Lief 🗽]

Am I right that basically every poll shows the Democrats tied or leading the generic ballot at this point? I think the only ones that do not are fake polls run by far-right Republicans (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc). And yet the consensus continues to be that Republicans are favored? Everyone is just assuming there will be a huge polling miss (there was not in 2018) or a sudden shift to the GOP (Labor Day was over two weeks ago and still no sign of this at all).

[wbrocks67]

Am I right that basically every poll shows the Democrats tied or leading the generic ballot at this point? I think the only ones that do not are fake polls run by far-right Republicans (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc). And yet the consensus continues to be that Republicans are favored? Everyone is just assuming there will be a huge polling miss (there was not in 2018) or a sudden shift to the GOP (Labor Day was over two weeks ago and still no sign of this at all).

Yep, the only ones currently showing a R lead recently are Traf, Rass, OnMessage (GOP internal push poll), and Data for Progress.

So 1 internal, 2 that have historically overrated GOP, and 1 that has been rather GOP-leaning this cycle.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Am I right that basically every poll shows the Democrats tied or leading the generic ballot at this point? I think the only ones that do not are fake polls run by far-right Republicans (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc). And yet the consensus continues to be that Republicans are favored? Everyone is just assuming there will be a huge polling miss (there was not in 2018) or a sudden shift to the GOP (Labor Day was over two weeks ago and still no sign of this at all).

Well, even a small polling miss would probably be enough for Republicans to take control given how extraordinarily narrow the Democratic majority currently is - Republicans can win a majority while losing the national popular vote for the House due to gerrymandering and whatnot. That being said, the longer things go on with a Dem lead in the generic ballot polling, and the wider that lead gets, the more plausible it starts to look for Dems to hold on in the House.

[Lief 🗽]

I do think that anything more than D+1 is likely a D majority for what it’s worth. If it’s less than that, then probably an R majority, but it’s very unlikely IMO that D’s lose the House while winning the popular vote otherwise. In 2020, the House popular vote was D+3 and the tipping point seat was D+2, so only a very small R advantage. And the new maps have shifted slightly more in D’s direction overall.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1572573036771147777

Just curious is there a different between italicized and unitaclized seats in the chart?

Which makes sense. An actual wave is as likely as nothing happening at all.
Most scenarios entail a very close senate and Rs winning with current similar margins that Democrats have in the House.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572938450835279872

[wbrocks67]

Marquette's new national poll also finds D+6, 47-41

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572947273255768064

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marquette's new national poll also finds D+6, 47-41

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572947273255768064

Also:

The survey finds the enthusiasm advantage Republicans held in the spring has largely vanished among registered voters, with 54% of Republicans and 51% of Democrats saying they are very enthusiastic to vote.

In their previous poll (July) 63% of R's were very enthusiastic, compared to 45% of D's.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

[Sir Mohamed]

Numbers keep getting better? Really encouraging. Question remains whether that holds, though the GOP is starting to run out of time to turn the tide. I think that's increasingly unlikely; we just need to keep in mind that a small shift would already be enough for them to at least win the House.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

We could still be on track for this

[wbrocks67]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

We could still be on track for this

I mean, the house could very well hold. It was D+3 in 2020 and that was with a small margin of seats, so D+2 with a new map that is the tiniest bit better for Ds than the last one could produce a D house.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have 50 even if we lose GA because CCM is gonna win but Warnock leading the rest is wave insurance it's 51/45 GA, PA leans D WI, OH, NC and FL are Tossups

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

We could still be on track for this

I mean, the house could very well hold. It was D+3 in 2020 and that was with a small margin of seats, so D+2 with a new map that is the tiniest bit better for Ds than the last one could produce a D house.

I think D+2 would probably fall just a bit short of holding the House, although it would depend on exactly how the votes are distributed; obviously they won't be perfectly distributed in proportion to each district's partisan lean.  That is, if there's a D+2 result overall but D's overperform in a number of close districts and underperform in not-close districts, they'd have a decent chance to hold control.  And vice versa -- if they underperform in close districts then the R's could gain 10 or more seats even at D+2.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

We could still be on track for this

I mean, the house could very well hold. It was D+3 in 2020 and that was with a small margin of seats, so D+2 with a new map that is the tiniest bit better for Ds than the last one could produce a D house.

Not the point. My point is that D +2 GCB almost certainly means a republican popular vote win because that left slant has happened every election of this generation except for one. Also:

1) How predictable it was that the GCB would always end up here

2) How Atlas is so receptive to “good news” and so skeptical of “bad news”

[wbrocks67]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

We could still be on track for this

I mean, the house could very well hold. It was D+3 in 2020 and that was with a small margin of seats, so D+2 with a new map that is the tiniest bit better for Ds than the last one could produce a D house.

Not the point. My point is that D +2 GCB almost certainly means a republican popular vote win because that left slant has happened every election of this generation except for one. Also:

1) How predictable it was that the GCB would always end up here

2) How Atlas is so receptive to “good news” and so skeptical of “bad news”

It's confusing to me why people continue to discount 2018, the literal last midterm, just to push whatever narrative they want

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

We could still be on track for this

I mean, the house could very well hold. It was D+3 in 2020 and that was with a small margin of seats, so D+2 with a new map that is the tiniest bit better for Ds than the last one could produce a D house.

Not the point. My point is that D +2 GCB almost certainly means a republican popular vote win because that left slant has happened every election of this generation except for one. Also:

1) How predictable it was that the GCB would always end up here

2) How Atlas is so receptive to “good news” and so skeptical of “bad news”

It's confusing to me why people continue to discount 2018, the literal last midterm, just to push whatever narrative they want

The closing phrase in your sentence explains exactly why.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572956918020460544?s=46&t=ugu0w2e...

[wbrocks67]

"Premise" has D+12 on the GCB, 46-34 lol

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20220922_US_Premise.pdf

Bumps 538 average up to D+2.0.

Funky poll, has GCB at D+12 but Biden only +2 in a 2024 rematch and his approval at 41/51 lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"Premise" has D+12 on the GCB, 46-34 lol

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20220922_US_Premise.pdf

Bumps 538 average up to D+2.0.

Funky poll, has GCB at D+12 but Biden only +2 in a 2024 rematch and his approval at 41/51 lol.

Never heard of them before, but I'd take it with a heaping grain of salt.  Looking at the details from the link at 538:

These results are based on responses from 1703 Americans collected between September 16th and September 19th via the Premise smartphone application. Premise randomly sampled its opt-in panel members, stratified on Age, Gender, Region and Education, based on the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS). The results are weighted by Age, Gender, Region and Education benchmarked against the 2019 ACS estimates.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20220922_US_Premise.pdf

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

We could still be on track for this

I mean, the house could very well hold. It was D+3 in 2020 and that was with a small margin of seats, so D+2 with a new map that is the tiniest bit better for Ds than the last one could produce a D house.

Not the point. My point is that D +2 GCB almost certainly means a republican popular vote win because that left slant has happened every election of this generation except for one. Also:

1) How predictable it was that the GCB would always end up here

2) How Atlas is so receptive to “good news” and so skeptical of “bad news”

It's confusing to me why people continue to discount 2018, the literal last midterm, just to push whatever narrative they want

I’ve always been very clear about my position in 2018. The polls were correct even though there was a gigantic turnout gap, with many aspects of it (Nevada for example) being unrecognized by pollsters. The polls should have underestimated democrats more given how far they exceeded expectations.

That’s also one case. The average GCB miss is 1.1 in the direction of democrats according to Nate Silver’s graphic, and there’s a logical (though not conclusive) case to be made that the low-propensity vs high-propensity coalitions are becoming wider than ever.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572956918020460544?s=46&t=ugu0w2e...

Yeah that's not happening.