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Author Topic: Current election predictions  (Read 2100 times)
Canis
canis
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Posts: 3,521


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

« on: August 13, 2017, 01:44:48 PM »

All right, some predictions:

Democrats:
Heavily contested nomination with lots of candidates.

Overrated candidates that are likely to run: Cuomo, Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, Castro, Booker
Overrated candidates that aren't likely to run: Gabbard (will run for governor/senator first)
Won't run: Sanders, Clinton
People to look for if they run: Newsom, Franken, Warren (If any of them runs they would have high chance of getting nomination and subsequently winning general election. However none of them is very likely to run and probably only one of them will actually contest the nomination.)
Presidential nominee: Gavin Newsom
Vicepresidential nominee: Cory Booker, Julian Castro or some other identity politics centrist establishment candidate

Republicans:
Trump will face establishment primary challenge but will get renominated.
Possible challengers: Sasse, Kasich, Coton, Flake

General election:
Democrats will win in a landslide, electing Newsom as new FDR/demoratic Reagan. Texas will stay republican. Georgia might be in play if Booker is a vicepresident. Arizona might vote for democrats.
Trump loses for reasons unrelated to his offensive style and endless amount of scandals, most likely because of economic crisis he won't be able to prevent.
However if nominee is Cuomo, Harris, Gillibrand or some other uninspiring centrist, democrats are gonna lose.

There is going to be strong (5%>) 3rd party candidate, probably some former republican.

Newsom/Booker 347 51%
Trump/Pence 143 44%
Tossup 48



Why would Newsom run only two years into his first term? Im a fan of Newsom but he won't be a contender till 2024 or 2028
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Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,521


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2017, 04:01:12 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2017, 04:07:28 PM by Super Liberal Libertarian »

Best Guess Currently:

Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT)/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 462 electoral votes, 57.4%
President Michael Pence (R-IN)/Governor James Justice (R-WV): 76 electoral votes, 38.5%

Lol at Wyoming going democrat before south carolina
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