2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election

[Tender Branson]

This will likely end up like the 2009 Carinthia election, after the death of Jörg Haider.

I expect a big Hugo Chavez remembrance vote ...

[Tender Branson]

I hail our new leader, Nicolas Maduro.

Even before Chavez's death, Maduro led Capriles by 14 points in a poll by Hinterlaces.

So, no big expectations here.

(PS: Hinterlaces predicted Chavez by 16 last year, when he won by 11)

[Tender Branson]

No, they HAVE TO run and win NOW.

Capriles CAN win this.

Assuming Maduro throws a few kids into the Orinoco river and Capriles is nearby, jumps in and rescues all of them.

[Tender Branson]

Maduro now has a lead of between 11% and 35%:

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_presidenciales_de_Venezuela_de_2013#Encuestas_de_opini.C3.B3n

Most polls have him ahead by about 20.

[Tender Branson]

In other news, most recent surveys show that voters expect Maduro to win (more than 60% of voters think so, compared with 25-35% who say Capriles will win).

Also, what's more important:

The polls all say that voters approve of the Chavez-era and of his leadership, with support levels between 75 and 90% !!!

Turnout will probably be huge as well in 2 weeks.

[Tender Branson]

Chavez comes to bless Maduro in the form of ‘little bird’



The deceased Venezuelan commandante, Hugo Chavez has allegedly come back from the dead disguised as a “little bird” to give his blessing to acting President Nicholas Maduro.

In the run-up to presidential elections slated for April 14, Chavez’s successor confessed he had been approached by the spirit of the legendary freedom fighter during a morning prayer.

During the speech at the opening rally of his campaign in Chavez's native state of Barinas, Nicholas Maduro told a crowd of onlookers that, as he was praying in solitude in a small chapel, a little bird flew whistling in, circled three times over his head and perched on a ceiling beam.

“I whistled to it in response,” Mr. Maduro told the stunned crowd, “the bird gave me a weird look, whistled again, flew around me and vanished.”

Maduro confessed it was then that he felt the spirit of the late Chavez. “I felt him there as though he were giving me a blessing, saying: ‘Today the battle begins. Onwards to victory. You have our blessing!”

Nicholas Maduro has several times mentioned spiritual presence of Hugo Chavez after the death of beloved Venezuelan leader on March 5. At Chavez’s state funeral, the party chief said that his soul was so huge that the body could not hold it and now his soul is hovering around the world, ever expanding and is filling us all with love and grace.”

The acting president has also called Venezuela’s current leadership “Chavez’s apostles.” After Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected the Catholic Pope following Chavez’s death, Maduro claimed that someone had assured Christ that “South America's time has come”. He also said that since Chavez was up in heaven he probably had some influence there.

A Venezuelan TV channel has released a video clip about Maduro’s meeting with the Chavez bird. The heaven in the video looks remarkably like a Venezuelan savanna in Commandante’s native rural state of Barinas.

http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_04_03/Chavez-comes-to-bless-Maduro-in-the-form-of-little-bird-501

...

LOL

[Tender Branson]

Capriles pulls ahead by 5 - in the latest poll by an Argentinian pollster:

http://www.abc.es/internacional/20130407/abci-capriles-maduro-sondeo-201304070052.html

Probably toss that poll.

[Tender Branson]

Their tracking poll looks like this:



But: There have been numerous polls showing Capriles ahead of Chavez too ahead of last years election, sometimes ahead by more than 20 and then Chavez won by 11.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, Venezuelan polls seem utterly worthless.

They are all over the place and probably driven by partisan interests as well.

Those polling companies that have opposition leadership probably show Capriles ahead, and those with pro-Chavez leadership have Maduro ahead.

Then there's Hinterlaces which got the Chavez-Capriles margin mostly correct. They have Maduro ahead by 15-20 right now.

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow is the election !

Any predictions ?

Mine:

54% Maduro
44% Capriles
  2% Other

Turnout: 78% (-3%)

[Tender Branson]

Pardon my ignorance but is it an election to fill the term Chavez was elected for

No, its for a full term.

Thanks

BBC says otherwise:

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22140143

[Tender Branson]

Maduro and his bird called "Hugo":

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems to be much lower this time, but voting is very orderly and without problems says this report (remember that turnout last year was very high at 81%, so probably 70% today):

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[Tender Branson]

Way closer than I thought ...

But really, like Florida in 2000 ?

Venezuela's elections yesterday are not nearly as much of a joke as those of FL in 2000.

[Tender Branson]

Results by region:

[Tender Branson]

http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/mapa-de-resultados-electorales

The full map with regional results.

Turnout was actually very close to 80%, not 78% like the APA graphic shows.

Many people voted later this time, contrary to last years election when many voted early in the day.

Capriles should accept his defeat, because that's like saying OH was stolen by the Bush folks in 2004 (which is probably more likely than the Maduro-people rigging this election).

[Tender Branson]

Does the CNE consist of Capriles-people as well, or is it "government-owned" ?

If the CNE consists of Capriles-people as well, it would be crazy to say they "fixed" these numbers by 500.000 votes without anyone complaining.

Of course, there were isolated problems in some precincts (2000 alltogether), but we are talking about more than 100K votes that were allegedly "fixed" ...

[Tender Branson]

I don't think there are any Capriles reps on CNE. According to CC they will be "certifying these results" in a few hours and if there's an audit it won't be a full one.

The Wikipedia article about it sounds very positive though:

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Also:

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[Tender Branson]

So, the "only independent guy" on the CNE was not there when they rigged the 300.000 votes ?

Did they drug him ?

Or threaten that they kill his family ?

Offered him a couple millions from oil money ?

Why is he silent when a few hundred thousand votes were rigged according to the right-wingers ?

[Tender Branson]

A bit of research. Yes, that guy on the CNE is an opposition man. And he wants a full manual recount.

It is, you know, conceivable likely that the government is panicky because they hadn't expected such a close result at all, certainly not with turnout near last year's levels, and they know who is to blame: Their next President. That clown ran a very incompetent campaign. ag is right on one thing: Maduro is damaged goods after this election. He'll be seen as at best a  primus inter pares by the military in the Boliburguesa.

Incidentally, I also see rumours that Capriles offered a "pact" - ie a corrupt bargain -  in exchange for an election concession.

Indeed.

He does not have the charisma of Chavez and the "birdy thing" might have pissed off another 3-5%.

If he would have let the birdy in his head, rather than talk about it, he could have won with 53-54%.

[Tender Branson]

Maduro's lead increases to 262.000 with near final results (foreign precincts missing).

50.75% Maduro
48.98% Capriles

Almost a 2% margin now ...

[Tender Branson]

I should note that while the "foreign precincts" are still missing in the vote total, they will not change the result, because only 100.000 Venezuela people abroad are eligible to vote.

The current Maduro-lead is over 260.000 though.

[Tender Branson]

I should note that while the "foreign precincts" are still missing in the vote total, they will not change the result, because only 100.000 Venezuela people abroad are eligible to vote.

The current Maduro-lead is over 260.000 though.

The margin doesn't really tell you much about the fairness of an election.

True, but the margin increasing in the final updates from 1.5 to 1.8% now could indicate that the Capriles-folks were too sure of a win with let's say 90% of precincts in and then some Maduro-strongholds came in.

We often see that in Virginia for example as well: Romney/McCain leading early in and then NoVa comes in and changes everything. Remember when J.J. was calling a Bradley-effect when McCain was 10% ahead in VA in 2008 and ended up winning by 6 points ?

[Tender Branson]

"Look, I have officially won. Suck it, Capriles-backers !"

[Tender Branson]

So, it seems the CNE web page is available - but only from within Venezuela. I wish somebody could tell me exactly what is posted on it.

Hopefully Dave doesn't read your post and installs a similar version for election nights 2014/16.