NJ-Gov 2005.

[AuH2O]

I want it to be close... but I kind of want Corzine to win. Kean Jr. is going to SMOKE Menendez.

[AuH2O]

Corzine has been a huge favorite from day 1. Even a close race is hard to spin as a big win for an incumbent Senator Democrat in NJ. That will weaken him politically-- not a lot, but enough that maybe he will have less say over who to appoint in his place.

I'm just smiling at the headline: "Menendez appointed to fill Corzine's seat."

[AuH2O]

I think its clear Forrester has momentum. In a low-turnout race, which this surely will be, that does open the possibility of a shock upset. Forrester doesn't really need people to suddenly become Republicans, he just needs center-left types to stay home in substantial numbers.

That said, if the polls are right Corzine will win, because there isn't time but for so much movement. I think the polls may not be right for structural reasons, but how significant a difference that constitutes is unclear (if real).