KS-SEN: Marshall +4 (co/Efficient, R internal), Bollier +2 (GBAO Strategies, D internal)

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article246101020.html

Marshall holds a 4 percentage point lead over Democrat Barbara Bollier in the race for U.S. Senate and is underperforming with Republican voters, according to a poll paid for by the Keep Kansas Great PAC, a political action committee that supports Marshall.

Marshall leads Bollier 43 % to 39 %, in a survey of 794 likely voters conducted Sept. 15 and 16. Another 2% opted for Libertarian, while 16% were undecided.

The poll also asked respondents to say whether they prefer a Republican or a Democrat for U.S. Senate. Bollier, a state senator from Mission Hills, matches the generic Democrat exactly at 39 %, but Marshall’s total is 10 percentage points below the generic Republican at 53%.

...

The poll was conducted by the Kansas City-based firm co/Efficient. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, which applies to both candidates’ scores.

---

Bollier’s campaign responded to a question about the Republican poll by releasing its own internal numbers.

Bollier leads Marshall 45 % to 43 %, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted between Sept. 24 and 27. The poll found 7 % of voters supporting Libertarian Jason Buckley, a result which would be several points higher than any Libertarian has received in a statewide Kansas election in recent years.

The Democrat’s lead falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll was conducted by Washington-based GBAO strategies. The polling memo states that Bollier has “more cross-party and moderate support” than Marshall.

[VAR]

Both internals are quite useless IMO.

[Stuart98]

Either way, the race is a tossup.

[wbrocks67]

Either way, the race is a tossup.

[ajc0918]

Trump's refusal to denounce white supremacy will turn off the moderate fraction of the GOP in Kansas.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It is extraordinary that a Republican is only at 43% in his own internal, one month before the election. 

[Pollster]

Interestingly, both agree that Marshall is at 43%, which is:

a) What Kobach got
b) Not where a Republican in Kansas should be at the beginning of October

[Calthrina950]

Interestingly, both agree that Marshall is at 43%, which is:

a) What Kobach got
b) Not where a Republican in Kansas should be less at the beginning of October

Bollier clearly still has a chance, as Marshall doesn't seem to be doing much better than how Kobach may have been doing at this stage. And given that several polls have shown Kansas as a high single-digit or low-double digit win for Trump-a significant swing against him compared to 2016-it's clear that this race is within reach for the Democrats. An upset in one of Kansas, Alaska, or South Carolina would compensate for an Ernst victory in Iowa or a Collins victory in Maine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

R internal
For the Keep Kansas Great PAC
September 15-16
794 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

D internal
September 24-27
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

[MillennialModerate]

Kansas hasn’t had a Democrat in the Senate in a zillion years. It’s not as ridiculously ignorant as Tennessee. But the state is loyal to the party itself. Likely R

[Sir Mohamed]

For sure not great for Marshall, especially since this is an internal. But my hot take: Marshall will end up winning most undecideds in this poll who vote the straight R-ticket line and this won't be the close race people may believe. Likely R.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R still, but interesting to see Marshall only at 43% in both polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Bollier wins, then Bullock should win, I can see both races go D in a blue wave, especially after last night, after Trump's poor debate performance

That's why Biden is up by 10

[Hope For A New Era]

Tossup.

[cp]

Tossup.

Maybe it's just EoE's avatar that put the idea in my head, but I wonder if the relevant parallel for this race is Missouri 2006?: Midwestern/plains state, underwhelming GOP candidate vs dynamic Dem with crossover appeal, election a referendum on an unpopular GOP president, and local party seen as having recently overreached (remember John Ashcroft?).

McCaskill's win (49/47) is about what I could see Bollier pulling off.

[Astatine]

"KS is safe R cuz Marshall is the nominee" is what "IA is safe R cuz Ernst is a strong incumbent" was half a year ago.

[Xing]

If this race really is that competitive, the Senate is long gone for Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

"KS is safe R cuz Marshall is the nominee" is what "IA is safe R cuz Ernst is a strong incumbent" was half a year ago.

Bollier is getting a bump from popularity of Gov Kelly who might not lose in 2022, just like in 2014, Ernst got a bump from Gov Reynolds, whom is under 50 during Covid and Ernst may lose and Reynolds is vulnerable to a JD Scholten challenge in 2022, if he loses on 2020

[Ferguson97]

This would average out to Marshall+1, right?

This race is a tossup. Underrated pickup for the Democrats.

[S019]

But....but...but...Roger Marshall is an unbeatable titan! There's no he can only be at 43% in his own internals. But...KS hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years, even Wyoming has elected a Democrat more recently.

In all honestly, still a tossup, and I'd say after seeing this pathetic showing from Marshall in his own internal, that Bollier would win if the election was today, my previous prediction had Marshall winning by around 2.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

But....but...but...Roger Marshall is an unbeatable titan! There's no he can only be at 43% in his own internals. But...KS hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years, even Wyoming has elected a Democrat more recently.

In all honestly, still a tossup, and I'd say after seeing this pathetic showing from Marshall in his own internal, that Bollier would win if the election was today, my previous prediction had Marshall winning by around 2.

Tossup..?

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1311416768225832961?s=19

[GlobeSoc]

But....but...but...Roger Marshall is an unbeatable titan! There's no he can only be at 43% in his own internals. But...KS hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years, even Wyoming has elected a Democrat more recently.

In all honestly, still a tossup, and I'd say after seeing this pathetic showing from Marshall in his own internal, that Bollier would win if the election was today, my previous prediction had Marshall winning by around 2.

Tossup..?

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1311416768225832961?s=19

Online pollster tho

[S019]

But....but...but...Roger Marshall is an unbeatable titan! There's no he can only be at 43% in his own internals. But...KS hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over 80 years, even Wyoming has elected a Democrat more recently.

In all honestly, still a tossup, and I'd say after seeing this pathetic showing from Marshall in his own internal, that Bollier would win if the election was today, my previous prediction had Marshall winning by around 2.

Tossup..?

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1311416768225832961?s=19

, there's something called margin of error, also if Marshall struggling in his own released internals can't tell you that this race is close, then I don't know what will

[Pericles]

Marshall seems to have the lead, so it's inaccurate to call it a tossup. Lean R based on the polling, Likely R overall since undecideds probably go to Marshall and partisanship should help him, even if Trump gets an underwhelming win there.

[UWS]

Marshall seems to have the lead, so it's inaccurate to call it a tossup. Lean R based on the polling, Likely R overall since undecideds probably go to Marshall and partisanship should help him, even if Trump gets an underwhelming win there.

Kansas surely wasn't going to elect someone who would fight ta raise taxes, stricter gun control, abortion and would oppose Amy Coney Barret's SCOTUS nomination.