MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[Brittain33]

Have fun with the Fagg jokes guys, just going to point out that one of your moderators has been out as a gay man for over 20 years so don't get too carried away.

C'mon, you have to admit the name spelling IS unfortunate.

Oh, completely! My hat's off to him for trying to have a political career.

[IceSpear]

Can’t wait to vote against Fagg in the primary!

[Doimper]

Can’t wait to vote against Fagg in the primary!

lol

[Cactus Jack]

Have fun with the Fagg jokes guys, just going to point out that one of your moderators has been out as a gay man for over 20 years so don't get too carried away.

C'mon, you have to admit the name spelling IS unfortunate.

Oh, completely! My hat's off to him for trying to have a political career.

As a bisexual man, I think that the poor gentleman's likely primary defeat will only serve to prove that God hates Faggs.

[MT Treasurer]

Great news for Democrats:

Libertarian Rick Breckenridge is running again

If Republicans outperform everyone’s expectations and the race is tight, he could tip it to Tester and/or the Libertarian candidate in the House race could help Heenan win.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

New Tester spot:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=sbE7W-tcwkQ

[KingSweden]

I noticed over the weekend that Downing has the coveted Dan Quayle endorsement

[Young Conservative]

I read a Montana newspaper saying libertararians may underpform in the Montana senate race due to rosendale’s Libertarian bent. Thoughts?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

New Tester spot:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=sbE7W-tcwkQ

Montana Dems always have the best ads

[MT Treasurer]

I read a Montana newspaper saying libertararians may underpform in the Montana senate race due to rosendale’s Libertarian bent. Thoughts?

Depends on the quality of Rosendale’s (or whoever wins the primary) campaign and whether Democrats run ads touting him as the “real conservative” in the race like in 2012. Even though this year’s race is considered a lot less competitive than the one in 2012, it will still be a race to the bottom, so I’d be surprised if he got less than 3%. Breckenridge isn’t the strongest Libertarian candidate, but he got 3.3% when he ran against Zinke in 2016.

Btw: Today is the filing deadline for the June primary.

[Young Conservative]

I read a Montana newspaper saying libertararians may underpform in the Montana senate race due to rosendale’s Libertarian bent. Thoughts?

Depends on the quality of Rosendale’s (or whoever wins the primary) campaign and whether Democrats run ads touting him as the “real conservative” in the race like in 2012. Even though this year’s race is considered a lot less competitive than the one in 2012, it will still be a race to the bottom, so I’d be surprised if he got less than 3%. Breckenridge isn’t the strongest Libertarian candidate, but he got 3.3% when he ran against Zinke in 2016.

Btw: Today is the filing deadline for the June primary.

I think he gets between 2 and 3 but doesn’t break 3. Fatigue of him plus rosendales libertarian bent.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://missoulian.com/news/local/poll-montanans-split-on-elected-officials-dislike-zinke-s-recommendations/article_c09a1888-1f07-5e76-bdf3-fc76d77c0555.html

The Missoulian polled job performance approvals (albeit through quite flawed methodology). I've bolded the more interesting figures:

Excellent / Good / Fair / No Response / Poor

Trump 20 / 23 / 12 / 3 / 41
Tester 19 / 27 / 23 / 6 / 25
Daines 8 / 26 / 29 / 10 / 26
Gianforte 7 / 23 / 22 / 12 / 37
Bullock 13 / 32 / 32 / 7 / 17

[Gass3268]

The fact that Excellent + Good essentially equals Poor in Montana is awful for Trump.

Good to see that Tester's numbers are better than Trumps.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Anyway, in case you missed it: There will be Green Party candidates on the ballot this fall (and likely in 2020, too).

Oh goody. I can't wait for the green party to take away votes from Tester.

[MT Treasurer]

Oh goody. I can't wait for the green party to take away votes from Tester.

Nah, the race would have to be very close for them to hurt Tester, which seems unlikely at this point. At best, it will cancel out the Libertarian spoiler effect, and even that’s debatable. I wouldn’t worry about this if I were you.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Oh goody. I can't wait for the green party to take away votes from Tester.

Nah, the race would have to be very close for them to hurt Tester, which seems unlikely at this point. At best, it will cancel out the Libertarian spoiler effect, and even that’s debatable. I wouldn’t worry about this if I were you.

I'm not confident about Tester's chances (unless the MT poll was just released is accurate). Montana voted Trump by a pretty big amount and Tester is fairly liberal on a lot of issues, including immigration (which he recently moved to the left on). He's cast a lot of votes lately that could lead him open to attack (No on tax bill, vote to keep govt shutdown, vote for clean DACA).

[MT Treasurer]

The first GOP Senate primary debate was held on March 22, you can listen to it here if you want.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats are trying to remove the Green Party from the ballot

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[LimoLiberal]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/26/jon-tester-trump-revenge-556111

‘Jon poked the bear’: Tester braces for Trump’s revenge

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I think I'm going to move MT from Tilt D to Tossup.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Obamacare is far more controversial than Jackson. Voters can barely name any cabinet members, let alone recollect a specific incident months before the election. If Tester can get away with voting for Obamacare (which was on literally 100% of voters minds in 2012 and most people in Montana disliked it), I don't see why a random cabinet members that barely any voters will remember will matter. Tester also had a very credible opponent in 2012 too.

Seriously LL, you are a political nerd who has not worked in your entire life. Most voters are not political nerds and don't follow everything 24/7. People tend to vote on bread and butter issues (e.g health care), not some random appointment. I know you're like a 16 year old kid or whatever and you aren't actually working or raising a family, which is why you are so out of touch with the average American voter.


Tester could very well lose because of his liberal voting record, but I don't think this VA thing will even lower his vote share by 0.5%. The media loves making up things that could be damaging because they need to produce articles to get ad revenue (aka $$, which you will learn when you enter the workforce). It's far more likely that immigration or some other issue is what brings Tester down.

[Hindsight was 2020]

If Trump couldn't get his guy over the line twice in Alabama then I don't see how Montana would

[KingSweden]

DTC said what I would say much better (and nicely) than I would have. Limo, you overreact to every news story. Two weeks ago Trump’s mission in life was to destroy Jeff Bezos. In a month (and that’s generous) he and everybody else will no longer care.

[MT Treasurer]

God, Fagg (MUH fourth-generation Montanan) is unbelievably unlikable and going really negative on Downing and especially Rosendale. Downing is actually winning the debate so far IMO. Olszewski is the one I agree the most with, so of course he’s not going to win the nomination. Rosendale is doing okay, but not really impressive.

Yeah, safe to say that Tester is favored.

[MAINEiac4434]

Would Olszewski be the best one to take on Tester, Treasurer?

[MT Treasurer]

Would Olszewski be the best one to take on Tester, Treasurer?

Really tough question. I like him, but he has a big name recognition problem and will probably finish fourth in the primary. No donors, terrible fundraising numbers, etc.

As far as the other candidates are concerned, Rosendale > Downing > Fagg is how I would rank them from most to least “electable”, but who knows. It’s just my personal opinion, and admittedly I’m not really all that impressed with any of the three. Fox should have run (he’s not some juggernaut, but still...).