Predict the Trend Map

[SPC]

Go.

Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Virginia, Wyoming, and New Mexico seem like they could go either way, among other states.

[nclib]

I did 538's Nov. 6 cast, and got this, with only Ariz. swing Dem.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

AK, HI, VA, MD, PA, RI, MO could go either way. The biggest D trends are AZ, OK, AR, TN, MN, while  the biggest R trends are UT, CT, ID, IN, and WI.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Can Utah actually trend any more Republican than it already is? And DC anymore Democratic?

[tarheel-leftist85]

Projected PV Margin + 0.07% Romney
Trend Baseline = 7.34% R

[SPC]

Can Utah actually trend any more Republican than it already is? And DC anymore Democratic?

Romney cracking 70% and Obama cracking 90% would be sufficient for both, respectively.

[Smid]

Can Utah actually trend any more Republican than it already is? And DC anymore Democratic?

The swing in DC, being relatively stable and un-swingy, is probably roughly inversely proportional to the national swing. If I remember correctly, it trended Republican in 2008?

[Mehmentum]

So I'm guessing by the maps, this is the trend in margin relative to national margin?

[tarheel-leftist85]

Update - ran w/ my spreadsheet numbers which incl. state PVs, estimated turnout, national PV, and trend (state swing - national swing).

Obie   Mittens   Turnout   Margin 12   Margin 08   Trend ME   51.40   45.38   708000   6.02   17.32   -4.03 NH   49.58   48.79   720000   0.79   9.61   -1.55 VT   61.03   34.72   315000   26.31   37.01   -3.43 MA   55.44   41.85   3213000   13.59   25.81   -4.95 RI   56.66   40.02   459000   16.64   27.81   -3.90 CT   52.03   45.94   1647000   6.09   22.37   -9.01 NY   56.32   41.63   7449000   14.69   26.86   -4.90 NJ   52.10   46.00   3957000   6.10   15.53   -2.16 PA   50.50   47.51   5925000   2.99   10.31   -0.05 DE   55.46   42.49   417000   12.97   24.98   -4.74 MD   57.16   40.88   2646000   16.28   25.44   -1.89 DC   93.00   5.90   276000   87.10   85.92   8.45 NORTHEAST   54.31   43.55   27732000   10.75       VA   51.47   47.14   3969000   4.33   6.3   5.30 NC   49.91   49.18   4557000   0.73   0.33   7.67 SC   45.85   52.85   1980000   -7.00   -8.98   9.25 GA   46.31   52.72   4122000   -6.41   -5.2   6.06 FL   49.95   49.08   8709000   0.87   2.81   5.33 AL   36.02   61.96   2079000   -25.94   -21.58   2.91 MS   43.54   55.19   1287000   -11.65   -13.17   8.79 LA   37.73   59.67   1926000   -21.94   -18.63   3.96 TX   44.52   54.45   8165000   -9.93   -11.76   9.10 WV   37.35   58.63   654000   -21.28   -16.22   2.21 KY   37.23   59.26   1758000   -22.03   -16.22   1.46 TN   37.52   59.77   2427000   -22.25   -15.06   0.08 AR   37.02   59.28   1048000   -22.26   -19.85   4.86 MO   44.50   53.30   2934000   -8.80   -0.13   -1.40 SOUTH   45.29   53.19   45615000   -7.90       OH   49.63   48.62   5766000   1.01   4.58   3.70 IN   45.21   52.77   2796000   -7.56   1.03   -1.32 IL   56.16   42.27   5406000   13.89   25.11   -3.95 MI   50.48   47.47   4869000   3.01   16.44   -6.16 WI   49.52   48.64   2991000   0.88   13.9   -5.75 MN   49.54   47.03   2838000   2.51   10.24   -0.46 IA   49.58   48.71   1506000   0.87   9.53   -1.39 ND   36.89   58.47   318000   -21.58   -8.65   -5.66 SD   37.05   58.58   366000   -21.53   -8.41   -5.85 NE   35.20   61.72   780000   -26.52   -14.93   -4.32 KS   35.15   61.67   1197000   -26.52   -14.92   -4.33 OK   30.03   69.97   1410000   -39.94   -31.29   -1.38 MIDWEST/PLAINS   48.36   49.61   30243000   -1.26       MT   41.07   53.24   489000   -12.17   -2.38   -2.52 ID   28.43   67.29   663000   -38.86   -25.3   -6.29 WY   27.19   68.53   246000   -41.34   -32.24   -1.83 UT   18.32   77.56   969000   -59.24   -28.02   -23.95 CO   49.39   48.62   2343000   0.77   8.95   -0.91 NM   50.15   46.03   834000   4.12   15.13   -3.74 AZ   44.65   53.42   2196000   -8.77   -8.48   6.98 NV   50.51   46.51   984000   4.00   12.49   -1.22 AK   34.74   61.22   318000   -26.48   -21.54   2.33 WA   51.01   45.02   2934000   5.99   17.08   -3.82 OR   50.62   46.06   1773000   4.56   16.35   -4.52 CA   55.59   42.18   13329000   13.41   24.03   -3.35 HI   63.53   33.82   450000   29.71   45.26   -8.28 PACIFIC   50.45   46.81   27528000   3.63          48.99   48.99   131118000   -0.00001      7.27

[Ebowed]

Can Utah actually trend any more Republican than it already is? And DC anymore Democratic?

The swing in DC, being relatively stable and un-swingy, is probably roughly inversely proportional to the national swing. If I remember correctly, it trended Republican in 2008?

Yes, and also of note, Kerry broke the record for highest percentage of the vote in a presidential contest in the District of Columbia, until Obama broke it again four years later.

[SPC]

Go.

Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Virginia, Wyoming, and New Mexico seem like they could go either way, among other states.

As of right now, it looks like I missed California, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, and Virginia. It is a bit disconcerting that 10 of those misses were too Republican while only 3 of them were too Democratic. 38/51 is better than a coin flip, though I would have hoped to do better.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So 36/51.

[nclib]

The 538 map was 37/50 with WY calculated within the margin of error. My actual prediction on a different thread--34/51.

[SPC]

The 538 map was 37/50 with WY calculated within the margin of error.

Wow, I beat Nate Silver! And equipped only with an OpenOffice spreadsheet too!