States without big counties

[ElectionsGuy]

Pennsylvania without Philadelphia:

Just for fun...

2012 President:

Romney (R): 2,583,967 (51.2%)
Obama (D): 2,401,468 (47.5%)

2012 Senate:

Casey (D): 2,456,478 (49.4%)
Smith (R): 2,424,671 (48.8%)

2010 Senate:

Toomey (R): 1,960,949 (55.2%)
Sestak (D): 1,590,735 (44.8%)

2010 Governor:

Corbett (R): 2,100,411 (58.9%)
Onorato (D): 1,464,357 (41.1%)

2008 President:

Obama (D): 2,680,383 (50.6%)
McCain (R): 2,538,664 (47.9%)

2006 Senate:

Casey (D): 2,035,927 (55.7%)
Santorum (R): 1,617,326 (44.2%)

2006 Governor:

Rendell (D): 2,087,178 (56.9%)
Swann (R): 1,576,633 (43.0%)

2004 President:

Bush (R): 2,663,748 (52.3%)
Kerry (D): 2,395,890 (47.0%)

2004 Senate:

Specter (R): 2,743,158 (55.8%)
Hoeffel (D): 1,882,225 (38.3%)

Overall Philadelphia seems to move the overall result 4 points to the left, or 8 points in margin of victory terms. So it would help republicans in close elections but it really doesn't do as much as some people think it does. Maybe I'll do this with Cook County, IL too sometime.

[ElectionsGuy]

That swing is actually a lot more significant than I thought. I mean it shifted the state 8 points in 2012, that's huge.

I've been trying to determine the most powerful urban county in America in terms of controlling the politics of the state. I think Cook County, Il could be number one, but there's also Philadelphia, Wayne County MI, Miami-Dade, King County WA, Multnomah County OR, Fairfax VA, Cuyahoga OH,  and St. Louis. All of these counties are different sizes, but they tend to push the Democrat over the finish line in many statewide races.

Cook is definitely the most influential in terms of swinging the vote. Illinois votes...

Romney: 1,639,674 (50.8%)
Obama: 1,530,975 (47.4%)

without Cook County. But that's because it holds 40% of the population. Not only is the county itself huge (land area), but its a huge concentration of people. I think only Anchorage AK, Honolulu HI, Maricopa AZ, and Clark NV are the only other counties that hold a bigger % of people of their respective states than Cook of IL. 49.3% of Obama's votes in Illinois come out of Cook County.

[ElectionsGuy]

If anyone could figure out whether Claire McCaskill still won in 2012 without St. Louis I'd be much obliged

She still wins pretty easily...

McCaskill: 1,371,125 (53.1%)
Akin: 1,050,774 (40.7%)

But only by 12. She won by 16, 55-39. St. Louis only makes up 5% of the population so its not nearly as influential as many other counties. In fact, if you remove St. Louis County (the suburban county) and Jackson County (Kansas City) McCaskill still wins. Todd Akin was incredibly pathetic, and deserved that kind of loss.

[ElectionsGuy]

ElectionsGuy, did your Philly totals include the suburbs or just Philadelphia county?

Just Philadelphia County, which is the city of Philadelphia.

[ElectionsGuy]

If anyone could figure out whether Claire McCaskill still won in 2012 without St. Louis I'd be much obliged

She still wins pretty easily...

McCaskill: 1,371,125 (53.1%)
Akin: 1,050,774 (40.7%)

But only by 12. She won by 16, 55-39. St. Louis only makes up 5% of the population so its not nearly as influential as many other counties. In fact, if you remove St. Louis County (the suburban county) and Jackson County (Kansas City) McCaskill still wins. Todd Akin was incredibly pathetic, and deserved that kind of loss.

Did he lose his own district?

Its sketchy, because his district contained the most republican parts of St. Louis county (parts that are even more conservative than St. Charles County on average), but odds are that he did probably lose his old MO-2.

I can tell you he lost the new MO-2. As well as probably losing MO-3, MO-4, and MO-6 narrowly, and probably narrowly winning MO-7. The only one he probably got a clear win in is MO-8, the solidly republican southwest part of the state. But then again I'm guessing comparing the county election map, the district map, and the Romney/Obama numbers for those districts (on average Akin ran 15 points behind Romney).

[ElectionsGuy]

LA without Orleans Parish.

Landrieu would have had a point to spare in 2008, but she wouldn't have been there in the first place; Terrell would have flipped the actual margin in 2002.

Blanco would have actually held on, mostly because she overperformed in the rural parishes and Jindal weighed her down the New Orleans area anyway.

2012

Romney- 61.2%
Obama- 37.2%

2010

Vitter- 59.6%
Melancon- 34.6%

2008

McCain- 61.8%
Obama- 36.7%

Landrieu- 49.5%
Kennedy- 48.3%

2003

Blanco- 50.2%
Jindal- 49.8%

2002

Terrell- 51.7%
Landrieu- 48.3%

1996 would be an even bigger lose for Landrieu

Jenkins - 53.1%
Landrieu - 46.9%

I looked at that 2003 map, and I was shocked how close Jindal came by losing the majority of white rural modern republican counties. I looked at the vote totals and saw that the rural counties did nothing (in terms of vote margins) and Jindal ran up huge numbers in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, and did decent (for a republican) in Orleans. Very interesting stuff.

[ElectionsGuy]

I looked at that 2003 map, and I was shocked how close Jindal came by losing the majority of white rural modern republican counties. I looked at the vote totals and saw that the rural counties did nothing (in terms of vote margins) and Jindal ran up huge numbers in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, and did decent (for a republican) in Orleans. Very interesting stuff.

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

Is his race part of the reason he did poor in many of the rural white counties?

[ElectionsGuy]

I looked at that 2003 map, and I was shocked how close Jindal came by losing the majority of white rural modern republican counties. I looked at the vote totals and saw that the rural counties did nothing (in terms of vote margins) and Jindal ran up huge numbers in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, and did decent (for a republican) in Orleans. Very interesting stuff.

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

Is his race part of the reason he did poor in many of the rural white counties?

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

OK, just checking

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to do Illinois - Cook County for all statewide races for Pres., Sen., and Gov. going back to 2004.

2012 President:

Romney (R): 1,639,674 (50.8%)
Obama (D): 1,530,975 (47.4%)

2010 Senate:

Kirk (R): 1,336,669 (57.9%)
Giannoulias (D): 820,727 (35.6%)

2010 Governor:

Brady (R): 1,313,100 (56.3%)
Quinn (D): 844,381 (36.2%)

2008 President:

Obama (D): 1,790,649 (52.9%)
McCain (R): 1,543,791 (45.6%)

2008 Senate:

Durbin (D): 1,986,497 (60.4%)
Sauerberg (R): 1,173,187 (35.6%)

2006 Governor:

Topinka (R): 1,023,787 (47.0%)
Blagojevich (D): 882,598 (40.5%)

2004 President:

Bush (R): 1,748,541 (54.2%)
Kerry (D): 1,451,826 (45.0%)

2004 Senate:

Obama (D): 1,968,160 (62.8%)
Keyes (R): 1,061,019 (33.9%)

Any more requests?

[ElectionsGuy]

Okay, first Oregon w/o Multnomah. I'll also add it to Washington for Presidential elections.

2012 President:

Obama (D): 695,601 (48.8%)
Romney (R): 678,873 (47.7%)

Added to Washington

Obama (D): 2,030,283 (58.2%)
Romney (R): 1,365,972 (39.1%)

2010 Senate:

Wyden (D): 613,136 (52.7%)
Huffman (R): 509,686 (43.8%)

2010 Governor:

Dudley (R): 617,372 (52.6%)
Kitzhaber (D): 518,368 (44.2%)

2008 President:

Obama (D): 757,595 (51.8%)
McCain (R): 663,304 (45.3%)

Added to Washington

Obama (D): 2,030,544 (58.7%)
McCain (R): 1,304,387 (37.7%)

2008 Senate:

Smith (R): 709,209 (50.1%)
Merkley (D): 621,874 (43.9%)

2006 Governor:

Saxton (R): 524,260 (46.8%)
Kulongoski (D): 521,989 (46.6%)

2004 President:

Bush (R): 768,392 (52.1%)
Kerry (D): 683,578 (46.4%)

Added to Washington

Kerry (D): 1,769,786 (54.9%)
Bush (R): 1,403,333 (43.5%)

2004 Senate:

Wyden (D): 858,894 (60.1%)
King (R): 504,347 (35.3%)

Although Oregon still would've voted for Obama without Multnomah, its the reason Kitzhaber, Merkley, and even Kulongoski got elected. Overall it seems to shift Oregon 11 points (in % margin of victory) to the right. And when added to Washington it seems to make it shift 4 points to the left.

[ElectionsGuy]

I wonder what happens if you take Washoe County out of Nevada and give it to CA. Does it affect any elections?

It does not affect the outcome of any elections, in Nevada or California. Reid still wins in 2010 and in 1998 (Ensign won Washoe, so it would actually make Reid's margin larger). No governors races were affected, no presidential races going back to 1992 were affected (although 1996 was very close, Dole won it so again it would only make Clinton's margin larger).

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to revive this thread.

Pennsylvania without Philadelphia

Trump: 2,807,523 (53.1%)
Clinton: 2,284,163 (43.2%)

Illinois without Cook

Trump: 1,677,966 (50.6%)
Clinton: 1,448,916 (43.7%)