India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[omar04]

Back in the 1980s Indians voted in assembly elections as if they were LS elections.  In the 1990s to 2010s Indians voted in LS elections as if they were assembly elections. Now they clearly split their vote.

In 2019 Delhi was voting for PM so the anti-Modi vote went INC since Rahul Gandhi was the main alternative to Modi but when it came to assembly elections the voting was based on voting for CM.

What factors created such a large gap between the assembly and LS elections in Delhi? They're the exact opposite in terms of BJP results. I get the split ticket voting factor but such a see saw result seems pretty abnormal.

Also, thank you for your extensive coverage of Indian elections, I've personally learned a lot reading what you have posted on here and other threads.

[jaichind]

Back in the 1980s Indians voted in assembly elections as if they were LS elections.  In the 1990s to 2010s Indians voted in LS elections as if they were assembly elections. Now they clearly split their vote.

In 2019 Delhi was voting for PM so the anti-Modi vote went INC since Rahul Gandhi was the main alternative to Modi but when it came to assembly elections the voting was based on voting for CM.

What factors created such a large gap between the assembly and LS elections in Delhi? They're the exact opposite in terms of BJP results. I get the split ticket voting factor but such a see saw result seems pretty abnormal.

Also, thank you for your extensive coverage of Indian elections, I've personally learned a lot reading what you have posted on here and other threads.

The trend up until the 1980s is that voting for LS and assembly elections was mostly about voting for PM.  As a result community based voting was weaker although Muslims, Upper Castes and Dalits tend to vote INC while OBC and tribal tend to be more anti-INC.  With the passing Rajiv Gandhi there was no longer a dominate personal force at the national level so India entered into an era of caste base voting with state level distribution of power between different communities becoming very salient.

Post 2014 the the arrival of Modi the trend has been that the vote in LS election has become once again a vote for PM while assembly elections has been about vote for CM.  Delhi 2015 assembly to Delhi 2019 LS and Delhi 2020 assembly has seen very radical shifts in voting.  Looking at a pre-2020 assembly poll shows that a large bloc of 2019 BJP LS voters plan to shift back (these voters most likely voted AAP in 2015) to AAP.   Both the BJP and AAP are dominated by one personality with Modi for BJP and Arvind Kejriwal for AAP so in vote for PM election like 2019 LS that shifted a lot of vote to BJP and the logic is reversed for 2020 Delhi assembly election.




Arvind Kejriwal seems to understand this logic so during the 2020 Delhi assembly election he choose not to attack Modi knowing that doing so will drive away pro-Modi AAP voters.  Looking at how the Assam INC ran its campaign is the current election it seems they learned this lesson from Delhi AAP as they mostly ran on various positive promises and stayed away from attacking Modi.  I think this is the basis for my belief that the Assam INC could end up winning in Assam even though they started out a few months ago as massive underdogs.

Thanks for your feedback.

[jaichind]

The current COVID-19 surge emerged suddenly and now is getting so large that it might be the biggest challenge for Modi yet.  Even though it seems the government response is so far weak most likely it will not hurt Modi much.  As I mentioned before Modi being not married and having no children is seen as almost like a Hindu monk that is dedicated to the betterment of India.

Modi's look clearly tries to play into this narrative.

Modi before he become PM


Modi today


What a Hindu monk looks like

 
It is clear Modi's PR strategy is to make himself look beyond the material world and almost the same as a Hindu monk

[eos]

The current COVID-19 surge emerged suddenly and now is getting so large that it might be the biggest challenge for Modi yet.  Even though it seems the government response is so far weak most likely it will not hurt Modi much.  As I mentioned before Modi being not married and having no children is seen as almost like a Hindu monk that is dedicated to the betterment of India.

Modi's look clearly tries to play into this narrative.

Modi before he become PM


Modi today


What a Hindu monk looks like


It is clear Modi's PR strategy is to make himself look beyond the material world and almost the same as a Hindu monk

Is it really so much his 'monkishness', or the image of a patriarchal father figure from the Indian epic, the Mahabharata? I feel like its more of the latter. That said, I get what you mean, he definitely has an emotional appeal amongst some people. Demonotisation didn't stick on him, and probably neither will Covid.

[eos]

There are reports that the Assam INC is also taking steps to 'protect' their candidates from BJP poaching, starting April 22. They will apparently be kept in different hotels based on their regional seats.

[jaichind]

There are reports that the Assam INC is also taking steps to 'protect' their candidates from BJP poaching, starting April 22. They will apparently be kept in different hotels based on their regional seats.

AIUDF candidates have been in Rajasthan for a week in a luxury resort with all expense paid for by INC and just came back due to COVID-19 surge.  I think the plan now is to put UPA candidates in various resorts in Assam with all their cell phones taken away from them I believe.

[jaichind]

This seat, where the BJP nominated an unknown Dalit domestic servant, Ausgram, will vote April 22nd.  Jan Ki Baat has several pictures of election art and posters in the district with AITC and BJP symbols often side by side.

Note one advantage AITC does is they do have AITC CM Mamata Banerjee as the face of they party where the BJP has no face and has to rely only on party symbol.

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/west-bengal-polls-once-domestic-help-kalita-majhi-gets-bjp-ticket-ausgram-sc-seat-1449252

"Meet Kalita Majhi, Domestic Help Turned BJP Candidate For West Bengal Assembly Polls"

In Ausgram where the BJP got 7.6% in 2016 the BJP decided to go for a long shot non-politicans candidate nominating a domestic servant who is married to a plumber.  By nominating someone from such a humble background does project BJP as a pro-poor party.



Unfortunately for the BJP this move blew up in its face when Kalita Majhi was interviewed by the media and was asked which party she is running for she said "AITC".   I guess she does not know much about politics and just stated the party she heard of the most, which would be the ruling AITC.

[jaichind]

Due to COVID-19 surge in WB, both INC and Left Front have suspended all election rallies.  AITC has, in some cases, canceled election rallies.  BJP it seems have scaled down some rallies but have not cancelled any of them.  The BJP seems to be mocking Rahul Gandhi for INC's decision to cancel rallies on the premise that no one was going to be attending them anyway.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/mamata-writes-to-pm-modi-flags-covid-19-vaccine-shortage/articleshow/82130703.cms

"Mamata writes to PM Modi, flags Covid-19 vaccine shortage"

ATIC CM Mamata Banerjee goes on the offensive against Modi trying to pin the blame on the COVID-19 surge in WB onto the federal government.

 
 

[eos]

There are reports that the Assam INC is also taking steps to 'protect' their candidates from BJP poaching, starting April 22. They will apparently be kept in different hotels based on their regional seats.

AIUDF candidates have been in Rajasthan for a week in a luxury resort with all expense paid for by INC and just came back due to COVID-19 surge.  I think the plan now is to put UPA candidates in various resorts in Assam with all their cell phones taken away from them I believe.

Cases are spiking in Assam too. It would be disastrous if candidates catch Covid because they were all in close contact with each other.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/satta-bazar-bets-on-bjp-forming-the-next-govts-in-bengal-assam-puducherry/article34352362.ece

"Satta Bazar bets on BJP forming the next govts in Bengal, Assam & Puducherry"

Betting markets have BJP winning in Assam, WB and Puducherry and UPA winning in TN and LDF winning in Kerala

Even odds for seats in betting markets

WB: BJP 150 AITC 110
TN: UPA 160 NDA 60
Assam: NDA 71  (out of 126)
Kerala: LDF 75 UDF 55
Puducherry: NDA 17 (out of 30)

[eos]

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/satta-bazar-bets-on-bjp-forming-the-next-govts-in-bengal-assam-puducherry/article34352362.ece

"Satta Bazar bets on BJP forming the next govts in Bengal, Assam & Puducherry"

Betting markets have BJP winning in Assam, WB and Puducherry and UPA winning in TN and LDF winning in Kerala

Even odds for seats in betting markets

WB: BJP 150 AITC 110
TN: UPA 160 NDA 60
Assam: NDA 71  (out of 126)
Kerala: LDF 75 UDF 55
Puducherry: NDA 17 (out of 30)

Is there any significance to predictions made by betting markets in India? Things like secret 'ground knowledge'?

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/politics/breakaway-sad-factions-merge-in-punjab-bring-bad-news-for-badals-ruling-congress/642555/

"Breakaway SAD factions merge in Punjab, bring bad news for Badals & ruling Congress"

Several SAD splinter will fuse to form one party.  Bad news for SAD, since they will take away SAD votes, but also bad news for INC since they could form an alliance with AAP which could sweep the Sikh parts of Punjab in 2022.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/satta-bazar-bets-on-bjp-forming-the-next-govts-in-bengal-assam-puducherry/article34352362.ece

"Satta Bazar bets on BJP forming the next govts in Bengal, Assam & Puducherry"

Betting markets have BJP winning in Assam, WB and Puducherry and UPA winning in TN and LDF winning in Kerala

Even odds for seats in betting markets

WB: BJP 150 AITC 110
TN: UPA 160 NDA 60
Assam: NDA 71  (out of 126)
Kerala: LDF 75 UDF 55
Puducherry: NDA 17 (out of 30)

Is there any significance to predictions made by betting markets in India? Things like secret 'ground knowledge'?

No, they are usually CW based projections.  They
a) always miss waves
b) always overestimate ruling party

with a) being stronger than b)

Unless there is a pro-incumbent wave, which to be fair one only knows about after the fact, I would shift a bunch of seats from the betting market projections from the ruling bloc to the main opposition bloc and hope that one does not miss a pro-incumbent wave, like 2019 LS elections.

My gut feeling is that their WB projection is wrong.   Since 1977 the closest election in terms of seats was 2001 when it was Left Front 199 AITC-INC 89.  I find it hard to believe that the BJP vs AITC seat count would be 150 to 110.  I am pretty sure the winning party would be at least 180 seats which all things equal is more likely to be BJP than AITC.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/former-pm-dr-manmohan-singh-tests-positive-hospitalised-news-agency-ani-2417222

"Former PM Manmohan Singh Tests Positive, Hospitalised: Report"

After writing a letter to Modi urging more aggressive efforts in vaccination former INC PM Manmohan Singh himself got COVID-19.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rahul-gandhi-tests-positive-for-covid-19-2417843

"Rahul Gandhi Tests Positive For COVID-19"

[jaichind]

Modi address India on COVID-19 crisis.  Jan Ki Baat's take on his speech
Most claims sound good on paper, mostly an issue of execution on the ground level which I suspect is not there.  At  least he will not do a nationwide lockdown which was a total disaster in 2020.

[jaichind]

WB phase 6 info.  This is an area of relative INC and to some extent Left Front strength.  If their votes holds up this phase will be an AITC sweep.  If their votes goes BJP then it will be a tough battle between AITC and BJP.

[jaichind]

There are signs of a surge of infections in WB.  It seems that the WB election rallies, road shows, and campaigning which took place as the infections are rising are turning out to be super spreader events.   If so in WB there will be a huge surge in COVID-19 infections and death in the coming weeks.  I suspect May 2nd counting might go ultra slow as lockdowns by then might be necessary.

What is interesting is that there are not similar patterns in Assam Kerala or TN.  In think WB was in the wrong place and wrong time in terms of when its campaigning was really taking off.  The eight phased approach for WB it seems made the problem much worse as it pushed campaign season very long and overlapped with the this current wave.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/protesting-farmers-reject-allegations-they-are-blocking-oxygen-transport-to-delhi/articleshow/82177878.cms

"Protesting farmers reject allegations they are blocking oxygen transport to Delhi"

Despite the COVID-19 surge in Delhi the famer protest if anything have doubled down on their protests.  They claim that the BJP is using the COVID-19 as an excuse to end the farmer protests.  It seems the farmer protest groups plan an even larger level of protests to "surround" New Delhi.

[eos]

There are signs of a surge of infections in WB.  It seems that the WB election rallies, road shows, and campaigning which took place as the infections are rising are turning out to be super spreader events.   If so in WB there will be a huge surge in COVID-19 infections and death in the coming weeks.  I suspect May 2nd counting might go ultra slow as lockdowns by then might be necessary.

What is interesting is that there are not similar patterns in Assam Kerala or TN.  In think WB was in the wrong place and wrong time in terms of when its campaigning was really taking off.  The eight phased approach for WB it seems made the problem much worse as it pushed campaign season very long and overlapped with the this current wave.

They have restricted rallies and public campaigning in WB. Could it have any political effects?

[eos]

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/satta-bazar-bets-on-bjp-forming-the-next-govts-in-bengal-assam-puducherry/article34352362.ece

"Satta Bazar bets on BJP forming the next govts in Bengal, Assam & Puducherry"

Betting markets have BJP winning in Assam, WB and Puducherry and UPA winning in TN and LDF winning in Kerala

Even odds for seats in betting markets

WB: BJP 150 AITC 110
TN: UPA 160 NDA 60
Assam: NDA 71  (out of 126)
Kerala: LDF 75 UDF 55
Puducherry: NDA 17 (out of 30)

Is there any significance to predictions made by betting markets in India? Things like secret 'ground knowledge'?

No, they are usually CW based projections.  They
a) always miss waves
b) always overestimate ruling party

with a) being stronger than b)

Unless there is a pro-incumbent wave, which to be fair one only knows about after the fact, I would shift a bunch of seats from the betting market projections from the ruling bloc to the main opposition bloc and hope that one does not miss a pro-incumbent wave, like 2019 LS elections.

My gut feeling is that their WB projection is wrong.   Since 1977 the closest election in terms of seats was 2001 when it was Left Front 199 AITC-INC 89.  I find it hard to believe that the BJP vs AITC seat count would be 150 to 110.  I am pretty sure the winning party would be at least 180 seats which all things equal is more likely to be BJP than AITC.

What are the signs that BJP is doing better than TMC in WB?

Is a hung assembly possible in Kerela?

I think Assam is lean UPA at this stage. TN and Puducherry seem straightforward wins for UPA and NDA respectively.

[eos]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/protesting-farmers-reject-allegations-they-are-blocking-oxygen-transport-to-delhi/articleshow/82177878.cms

"Protesting farmers reject allegations they are blocking oxygen transport to Delhi"

Despite the COVID-19 surge in Delhi the famer protest if anything have doubled down on their protests.  They claim that the BJP is using the COVID-19 as an excuse to end the farmer protests.  It seems the farmer protest groups plan an even larger level of protests to "surround" New Delhi.

Any thoughts on the endgame for the farmer's protest? I had almost forgotten about them due to the elections, and now Covid.

[jaichind]

Any thoughts on the endgame for the farmer's protest? I had almost forgotten about them due to the elections, and now Covid.

Hard to tell.  Neither Modi nor the farmers it seems are will to back down.  It seems for a while Western UP farmer groups also might be joining in which would make it lethal for Modi.  Not sure after the COVID-19 blow over if this is still true.  If so then Modi might have to yield.  If not then Modi can wait out the farmers.

[jaichind]

There are signs of a surge of infections in WB.  It seems that the WB election rallies, road shows, and campaigning which took place as the infections are rising are turning out to be super spreader events.   If so in WB there will be a huge surge in COVID-19 infections and death in the coming weeks.  I suspect May 2nd counting might go ultra slow as lockdowns by then might be necessary.

What is interesting is that there are not similar patterns in Assam Kerala or TN.  In think WB was in the wrong place and wrong time in terms of when its campaigning was really taking off.  The eight phased approach for WB it seems made the problem much worse as it pushed campaign season very long and overlapped with the this current wave.

They have restricted rallies and public campaigning in WB. Could it have any political effects?

I have to assume it hurts the BJP the most and helps Left Front-INC-ISF the most. When the most recent COVID-19 surge came it seems it was Left Front-INC-ISF that called for the end of rallies the first and BJP stopped last.  If so the relative affects should be clear.