Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[The Mikado]

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Collins is a no

Collins is closer to a "Not yet" or "Not without Amendment" than a no. The subsequent tweets in that series indicate that she might be open to it with an amendment to siphon off extra cash to rural Maine.

As the bill stand right now, I think it will fail.

This is true, but McConnell won't present it as it stands right now. He'll try to buy off Collins and Murkowski with amendments shoveling cash to Alaska and Maine.

[The Mikado]

According to Bill Kristol, McConnell isnt even pushing the bill or contacting GOP Senators who said they'll vote no...maybe hes just wants the whole thing done and gone.

McConnell knows that this bill is dead. Whether he rolls out a new bill the week of the 10th of July is the question.

[The Mikado]

So Sean Spicer tweeted this out today.



I think that arguing that you're fixing the problem by raising the number of uninsured from 28 million to 50 million is a...courageous line to take on this.

[The Mikado]

Time may be running out for Republicans in the Senate as well. They are currently on a week long holiday for July the 4th, and won't be back until July 10th. They will also then be on their summer vacation starting on the 28th of July until early September. That only gives them 18 days to try to hammer out a deal. There is supposed to be a big nasty fight over the budget and debt limit in September that will occupy their time as well. Each month closer to the 2018 election Republicans keep their disastrous health care plan alive, the more people will remember in November 2018.

FWIW, Ben Sasse has been suggesting that the August Recess could be canceled if a health care bill doesn't pass congress in July.

There is 0 chance McConnell cancels August recess. 0. None.

[The Mikado]

At this point, I'm increasingly thinking that this debacle ends with no legislation.

[The Mikado]

Steven Portnoy‏
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JUST IN: McConnell announces "the Senate will delay the start of the August recess until the third week of August.”


...Wow. I never thought I'd see the day...as far as I can tell this is the first time in nearly 40 years that Congress has sat in August.

This is a pretty desperate maneuver.

[The Mikado]

We know how this plays out: McConnell releases terrible legislation on Thursday, on Monday/Tuesday CBO score comes out and fence-waverers announce they're still wavering, and McConnell delays for another two weeks to try again.

He's totally lost Collins and Heller (no matter what Mike Pence says, Heller is clinging to Sandoval for dear life as cover for his reelection and Sandoval has been unerringly critical of the bill), and the backbiting over various special favors and minute points will drag this out indefinitely.

Also, if he really is leaving the ACA taxes in place as rumored, the House Freedom Caucus is going to have a serious issue with this bill once it gets bounced back House side.

[The Mikado]

Rand Paul writes brutal editorial in Breitbart accusing GOP of keeping Obamacrare with this bill.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/07/12/exclusive-sen-rand-paul-senate-gop-decides-keep-obamacare/amp/

This is about as clear a No as you get.

[The Mikado]

Jon Ralston‏ 
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"We remain in the same camp. Fundamentally, they haven’t changed the bill.” -- @SenDeanHeller on new GOP effort.

Heller, Collins, and Paul all still nos on bill.

[The Mikado]

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/341197-wva-republican-if-i-have-to-be-that-one-person-to-kill-healthcare-bill-i-will

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Mondale, you there?

[The Mikado]

Heller is probably waiting on Sandoval to express his opposition before he will...Heller is trying very hard to just latch himself onto NV's popular GOP governor for dear life.

[The Mikado]

McCain is not a no. He's a "bitch and moan that he doesn't like the bill, then vote for it," like Cassidy and a few others.

[The Mikado]

Dean Heller has realized that he's in a position where he's going to lose his seat no matter which way he votes on the bill (whether in a GOP primary or in the general), which does free him up to cross over. He's in Blanche Lincoln/Ben Nelson territory now.

We'll see how Monday goes. The Senate bill was all set to pass three weeks ago when all hell broke loose over its scoring.

[The Mikado]

Sandoval's also not running for reelection, so the GOP doesn't exactly have a lot to bribe/threaten him with.

[The Mikado]

Odds of passage feels closer to 25% now, which is too high for comfort but could be worse.

I'd go considerably higher than that. This thing has a good shot at passing, though it's still far from a done deal. Monday will basically decide its fate.

[The Mikado]

Basically read this:

https://www.macpac.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Trends-in-Medicaid-Spending.pdf

Now tell me again, that Heller is voting yes. 200,000 Nevadans didn't get on Medicaid by choice. A lot of the expansion is to mop up those who were hurt the Great Recession.

My concern, voiced above, is that Heller might have concluded already that he's doomed no matter which way he goes, which removes a lot of the pressure from him.

[The Mikado]

TL;DR: Two giant insurance companies say that Cruz Amendment "is unworkable in any form" and will lead to "widespread termination of coverage."

The insurance companies don't even want what the Republicans are offering here.

[The Mikado]

The doctors lobby: No.
The hospitals lobby: No.
The AARP (the largest advocacy group in America): No.
The overwhelming majority of Americans and Nevadans: No.
The f**king insurance companies this bill is supposed to benefit: No.

Dean Heller:

[The Mikado]

Brutal numbers for BCRA in the new Selzer poll of Iowa for the Des Moines Register, taken July 9-13 with a sample of 800 adults (MOE 3.5%).

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/kathie-obradovich/2017/07/16/obradovich-iowa-poll-shows-gop-corner-health-care/479189001/

Do you mostly support or mostly oppose the direction Congressional Republicans are heading in addressing health care legislation?

Mostly support: 29%
Mostly oppose: 58%
Not sure: 13%

By party:

R: 57/25/18
D: 5/87/7
I: 25/63/12

Polls like these don't matter. Trump could ground his voting base to dirt and they'd still vote for him

They matter quite a bit if you're Rod Blum in R+1 IA-01 or David Young in R+1 IA-03.

[The Mikado]

One of these days, when we have a bit of perspective, we need a lengthy discussion of the evolution of the Senate as an institution in recent decades and how it has transformed especially in the last few years.

[The Mikado]

By the way, I think Mondale deserves everyone he was calling naïve for doubting the bill's passage an apology.

(I'm not actually serious about this)

[The Mikado]

Whether or not McCain comes back next week is a huge deal. If he cannot return this week, then the GOP bill will have to be delayed yet again, and the longer this ordeal goes on, the worse it is for the bill's chances because it means we'll have time for a big drawn-out debate over whether or not the Senate should override the Byrd Rule (or pass a post-Byrded Senate bill that will be untenable in the House due to funding Planned Parenthood and government money for abortion).

[The Mikado]

Even if MTP passes tomorrow (which is likely, but not guaranteed), this bill isn't out of the woods until it's through the Senate. People are being way too sure this is going to pass, just like the last two times it was sure to pass.

[The Mikado]

It doesn't look like they intend to actually sign a skinny repeal into law though. They just really need to pass something that they can bring to a conference with the House so that they have some kind of starting point to work out a joint bill.

That would be even worse from their point of view because they'd need to pass it through the House and Senate again.

[The Mikado]

Murkowski voting No is actually a horrible sign for this bill's health, given Rand Paul's repeated statements that he won't vote Yes on passage of anything except clean repeal. People are calling this way too early.