Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Blair]

Yeah this is starting to feel like the second crack at the House vote; and I can't help but think that it's going to pass now.

I'm looking forward to Heller becoming an ambassador in 2018 in exchange for this

[Dr. Arch]

Yeah this is starting to feel like the second crack at the House vote; and I can't help but think that it's going to pass now.

I'm looking forward to Heller becoming an ambassador in 2018 in exchange for this

This is all pure cruelty and evil, dumping so many people out of health insurance to benefit corporations; the Republican party is nothing else.

[Blair]

Yeah this is starting to feel like the second crack at the House vote; and I can't help but think that it's going to pass now.

I'm looking forward to Heller becoming an ambassador in 2018 in exchange for this

This is all pure cruelty and evil, dumping so many people out of health insurance to benefit corporations; the Republican party is nothing else.

With the exception of Paul, both the House and Senate has shown that conservatives can basically play hardball, and will get what they want. Complete opposite happened when the Democrats did Obamacare.

[ilikeverin]

This is painfully predictable - DeVos, Part II.  Of course all the other Republicans will vote in favor of it, and it will pass.

[Person Man]

Do you think there was actually any doubt?

[BudgieForce]

If the CBO is bad, Heller and Capito will jump off and kill the bill. If its alot better than the last one, it'll probably pass.

[Person Man]

If the CBO is bad, Heller and Capito will jump off and kill the bill. If its alot better than the last one, it'll probably pass.

What do you think the reference is?

[Yank2133]

If the CBO is bad, Heller and Capito will jump off and kill the bill. If its alot better than the last one, it'll probably pass.

They aren't waiting on the CBO, they are all waiting on Heller.

No one wants to vote for this bill, but no one wants to kill it.

[BudgieForce]

If the CBO is bad, Heller and Capito will jump off and kill the bill. If its alot better than the last one, it'll probably pass.

They're not scoring it with the CBO

They're using the HHS to cook the books

They still need the CBO to vote on the bill, right?

[Person Man]

At this rate, the Democrats will just make the Senate into a 100 more House seats. It would be political malpractice otherwise...at least they should run on Medicaid and Medicare expansion.

[BudgieForce]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/13/senate-republicans-health-care-bill-cruz-lee-240498

This says a CBO score is coming out monday without the Cruze Amendment.

[Yank2133]

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They are going to have to drastically change the bill or give NV some sort of exemption.

[BudgieForce]

There is a CBO score coming Monday, and the changes in the senate bill arent enough to actually move the uninsured number. Im betting Capito and Heller jump ship Monday after the score comes out, regardless of the HHS score on the Cruze amendment. Murkowski has also said she cant be paid off, but it wont be the first time she'd come off as a huge liar.

[The Mikado]

Dean Heller has realized that he's in a position where he's going to lose his seat no matter which way he votes on the bill (whether in a GOP primary or in the general), which does free him up to cross over. He's in Blanche Lincoln/Ben Nelson territory now.

We'll see how Monday goes. The Senate bill was all set to pass three weeks ago when all hell broke loose over its scoring.

[BudgieForce]

Dean Heller has realized that he's in a position where he's going to lose his seat no matter which way he votes on the bill (whether in a GOP primary or in the general), which does free him up to cross over. He's in Blanche Lincoln/Ben Nelson territory now.

We'll see how Monday goes. The Senate bill was all set to pass three weeks ago when all hell broke loose over its scoring.

You really think there going to primary him? Thats a sure fire way to lose the seat.

[Yank2133]

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You forgot the follow up.

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[Yank2133]

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You forgot the follow up.

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I honestly just feel like their gonna cave. The GOP is basically Enron at this point when it comes to ethics and morals

Senate moderate Republicans are cowards, but the resistance from Sandoval is problematic IMO. He is one of the few GOP governors to make the expansion work in his state, and NV ( with KY) is one of the model states when it comes to the ACA. He is also the most popular pol by far in the state.

I just don't see how Heller can vote for this thing as long as Sandoval is against it.

[The Mikado]

Sandoval's also not running for reelection, so the GOP doesn't exactly have a lot to bribe/threaten him with.

[The Other Castro]

Odds of passage feels closer to 25% now, which is too high for comfort but could be worse.

[The Mikado]

Odds of passage feels closer to 25% now, which is too high for comfort but could be worse.

I'd go considerably higher than that. This thing has a good shot at passing, though it's still far from a done deal. Monday will basically decide its fate.

[Person Man]

Odds of passage feels closer to 25% now, which is too high for comfort but could be worse.

I'd go with that. What was it before?

[Person Man]

The other thing to remember, a decade ago, we didn't have the Great Crash. That really put a crimp on people's spending and I think Medicaid rolls and so on have risen as a consequence. The safety net has become more valuable, not less valuable, over time, which is a huge reason the Medicaid expansion is a political sticking point.

I think that's the underlying subtext to why this is so hard. The Great Crash has made neoliberal healthcare planning a very dicey idea.

Compare and contrast to welfare reform in the booming 1990s.

I think the era of Neoliberal Healthcare Delivery is over or we are just heading to a new age of mass poverty that makes the political economy  that much less stable.

[The_Doctor]

Basically read this:

https://www.macpac.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Trends-in-Medicaid-Spending.pdf

Now tell me again, that Heller is voting yes. 200,000 Nevadans didn't get on Medicaid by choice. A lot of the expansion is to mop up those who were hurt the Great Recession.

[The_Doctor]

The other thing to remember, a decade ago, we didn't have the Great Crash. That really put a crimp on people's spending and I think Medicaid rolls and so on have risen as a consequence. The safety net has become more valuable, not less valuable, over time, which is a huge reason the Medicaid expansion is a political sticking point.

I think that's the underlying subtext to why this is so hard. The Great Crash has made neoliberal healthcare planning a very dicey idea.

Compare and contrast to welfare reform in the booming 1990s.

I think the era of Neoliberal Healthcare Delivery is over or we are just heading to a new age of mass poverty that makes the political economy  that much less stable.

We're not heading to a new age of mass poverty. The current series of upheavals politically is bad enough; we'll have a new consensus forged over the next decade. Nobody wants to live through a brand new Democratic or Republican version of Trump elected every 4 to 8 years, where mass incompetence reigns with political parties facing angry mobs every 2 years.

[The Mikado]

Basically read this:

https://www.macpac.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Trends-in-Medicaid-Spending.pdf

Now tell me again, that Heller is voting yes. 200,000 Nevadans didn't get on Medicaid by choice. A lot of the expansion is to mop up those who were hurt the Great Recession.

My concern, voiced above, is that Heller might have concluded already that he's doomed no matter which way he goes, which removes a lot of the pressure from him.