Congressional Districts that will exist in roughly equivalent forms for decades to come?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not including at-large states that have no hope of gaining a 2nd district anytime soon.

Some thoughts:

CA-11, this district is almost perfectly nested in San Fransisco and is sort of constrained by geography. Even if Dems somehow get control back, CA-11 wouldn't really be "unpacked" as it's literally surrounded by other deep blue seats Dems would use first. Even if it becomes underpopulated, there is still a bit more of San Fransisco for it to take in.

CA-52, a natural Hispanic seat in SoCal. Funny cause this district was just created this cycle because last cycle San Diego didn't have the Hispanic population on it's own to support a CD. Only way I think it goes is if Dems regain control, but even then, I think it'd be more likely they unpack CA-51 and CA-52 first which is more than enough to get rid of CA-48.

CT-04, a very logical seat, and it's somewhat protected by geography. Even though CT seems on track to eventually lose it's 5th seat, CT-04 is the fastest growing seat so it wouldn't that severely underpopulated. Even if Dems eventually gain complete redistricting control, I doubt they'd crack CT-04 much cause there's easier places to get Dem votes for CT-01 and CT-05 from. In any court/neutral map it's a very natural district that's hard to not exist just by way of geography.

FL-24. For Republicans, it's a pretty natural vote sink that basically takes in all the black parts of Miami-Dade, and under any sort of commission map, it's a very logical district. Once again, the district is growing about in line with the national average and unless FL actually goes underwater, it shouldn't become hugely over/underpopulated.

HI-01/02, HI seems like it'll be at 2 seats for a while and the current configuration is very logical, and tbh, you can't really alter it much without doing something absurd. This cycle, pretty sure the commission just moved 2 precincts.

IN-07. It's already existed for a while, and it's basically the perfect size for blue parts of Indianapolis, and I don't think practically Rs would ever really be able to crack it and go 9-0 (or 8-0 if IN eventually loses a seat). It's just a very natural district but also an effective Dem vote sink.

ME-01/02, Maine doesn't seem at risk of losing or gaining a seat anytime soon, the coastal/northern config is very natural, and I doubt either side will make it to 2/3rds in the state leg to take control of redistricting.

MI-01, the Upper Penninsula district sort of always has to exist just by way of geography. It'll prolly have to take in a bit more rurals in mainland MI every cycle, plus MI has the commission who probably wouldn't do much to alter it.

MO-01. Rs can't crack it even if they wanted to, and probably won't be able to for a while. This is another case where it's a very effective and natural vote sink, and it's also sort of limited by geography.

NJ-04, sure the commission can always do something funky, but an Ocean County based seat is becoming increasingly more logical.

NJ-12, probably just due to the increasing Asian population, it being a pretty effective Dem pack, but also Dems not wanting to change it much. It may lose Plainfield tail but I doubt it'll ever be split down the middle for a while.

OH-11, again a natural district that functions as a pretty effective dem pack regardless of if Rs or a commission has the pen in future cycles. Also, given it's close to a corner, it'd be hard to crack unless Dems fall a *lot* more in Cleveland. OH-03 could be split in half in a Commission gets the pen, but OH-11 very clearly is based around Cleveland. Will prolly have to expand due the underpopulation, but there are still a lot of Cuyahoga suburbs to take in.

OR-02. It may take in bend, but there will prolly always be an eastern OR seat. It's geographically logical and also an effective R sink.

TN-09, again a similar situation to a lot of these "natural" D sinks in cities that are geographically cornered. It'll probably continue to be underpopulated, but it'll be a while before it can be cracked.

TX-16, again pretty self-explanatory.

TX-30. Might be cleaned up a bit, but very logical district that takes in basically all the notable black communities in Dallas County. It's also growing roughly in line with the nation and has been for a while.

VA-09. An effective R sink if Ds ever get back control, and a district that sort of has to exist just by way of geography. Probably will expand due to underpopulation.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not including at-large states that have no hope of gaining a 2nd district anytime soon.

Some thoughts:

CA-11, this district is almost perfectly nested in San Fransisco and is sort of constrained by geography. Even if Dems somehow get control back, CA-11 wouldn't really be "unpacked" as it's literally surrounded by other deep blue seats Dems would use first. Even if it becomes underpopulated, there is still a bit more of San Fransisco for it to take in.

CA-52, a natural Hispanic seat in SoCal. Funny cause this district was just created this cycle because last cycle San Diego didn't have the Hispanic population on it's own to support a CD. Only way I think it goes is if Dems regain control, but even then, I think it'd be more likely they unpack CA-51 and CA-52 first which is more than enough to get rid of CA-48.

CT-04, a very logical seat, and it's somewhat protected by geography. Even though CT seems on track to eventually lose it's 5th seat, CT-04 is the fastest growing seat so it wouldn't that severely underpopulated. Even if Dems eventually gain complete redistricting control, I doubt they'd crack CT-04 much cause there's easier places to get Dem votes for CT-01 and CT-05 from. In any court/neutral map it's a very natural district that's hard to not exist just by way of geography.

FL-24. For Republicans, it's a pretty natural vote sink that basically takes in all the black parts of Miami-Dade, and under any sort of commission map, it's a very logical district. Once again, the district is growing about in line with the national average and unless FL actually goes underwater, it shouldn't become hugely over/underpopulated.

HI-01/02, HI seems like it'll be at 2 seats for a while and the current configuration is very logical, and tbh, you can't really alter it much without doing something absurd. This cycle, pretty sure the commission just moved 2 precincts.

IN-07. It's already existed for a while, and it's basically the perfect size for blue parts of Indianapolis, and I don't think practically Rs would ever really be able to crack it and go 9-0 (or 8-0 if IN eventually loses a seat). It's just a very natural district but also an effective Dem vote sink.

ME-01/02, Maine doesn't seem at risk of losing or gaining a seat anytime soon, the coastal/northern config is very natural, and I doubt either side will make it to 2/3rds in the state leg to take control of redistricting.

MI-01, the Upper Penninsula district sort of always has to exist just by way of geography. It'll prolly have to take in a bit more rurals in mainland MI every cycle, plus MI has the commission who probably wouldn't do much to alter it.

MO-01. Rs can't crack it even if they wanted to, and probably won't be able to for a while. This is another case where it's a very effective and natural vote sink, and it's also sort of limited by geography.

NJ-04, sure the commission can always do something funky, but an Ocean County based seat is becoming increasingly more logical.

NJ-12, probably just due to the increasing Asian population, it being a pretty effective Dem pack, but also Dems not wanting to change it much. It may lose Plainfield tail but I doubt it'll ever be split down the middle for a while.

OH-11, again a natural district that functions as a pretty effective dem pack regardless of if Rs or a commission has the pen in future cycles. Also, given it's close to a corner, it'd be hard to crack unless Dems fall a *lot* more in Cleveland. OH-03 could be split in half in a Commission gets the pen, but OH-11 very clearly is based around Cleveland. Will prolly have to expand due the underpopulation, but there are still a lot of Cuyahoga suburbs to take in.

OR-02. It may take in bend, but there will prolly always be an eastern OR seat. It's geographically logical and also an effective R sink.

TN-09, again a similar situation to a lot of these "natural" D sinks in cities that are geographically cornered. It'll probably continue to be underpopulated, but it'll be a while before it can be cracked.

TX-16, again pretty self-explanatory.

TX-30. Might be cleaned up a bit, but very logical district that takes in basically all the notable black communities in Dallas County. It's also growing roughly in line with the nation and has been for a while.

VA-09. An effective R sink if Ds ever get back control, and a district that sort of has to exist just by way of geography. Probably will expand due to underpopulation.

I disagree on NJ-04. The 2010s version was a borderline-competitive seat but it's now a GOP sink drawn to shore up Andy Kim next door. The 2010s NJ-04 is primarily considered a Monmouth seat rather than an Ocean one. The 2020s version however is much more Ocean-dominated.

Honestly if Dems had full control of redistricting in NJ they'd unpack NJ-12 to help secure NJ-07. And NJ-01 would possibly be unpacked to help with NJ-02.

The only NJ seats I see as staying safe are 8 and 10, the Hispanic and Black VRA seats.

[lfromnj]

Andy Kim shouldn't have a competitive seat, It should be Frank Pallone with a competitive seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not including at-large states that have no hope of gaining a 2nd district anytime soon.

Some thoughts:

CA-11, this district is almost perfectly nested in San Fransisco and is sort of constrained by geography. Even if Dems somehow get control back, CA-11 wouldn't really be "unpacked" as it's literally surrounded by other deep blue seats Dems would use first. Even if it becomes underpopulated, there is still a bit more of San Fransisco for it to take in.

CA-52, a natural Hispanic seat in SoCal. Funny cause this district was just created this cycle because last cycle San Diego didn't have the Hispanic population on it's own to support a CD. Only way I think it goes is if Dems regain control, but even then, I think it'd be more likely they unpack CA-51 and CA-52 first which is more than enough to get rid of CA-48.

CT-04, a very logical seat, and it's somewhat protected by geography. Even though CT seems on track to eventually lose it's 5th seat, CT-04 is the fastest growing seat so it wouldn't that severely underpopulated. Even if Dems eventually gain complete redistricting control, I doubt they'd crack CT-04 much cause there's easier places to get Dem votes for CT-01 and CT-05 from. In any court/neutral map it's a very natural district that's hard to not exist just by way of geography.

FL-24. For Republicans, it's a pretty natural vote sink that basically takes in all the black parts of Miami-Dade, and under any sort of commission map, it's a very logical district. Once again, the district is growing about in line with the national average and unless FL actually goes underwater, it shouldn't become hugely over/underpopulated.

HI-01/02, HI seems like it'll be at 2 seats for a while and the current configuration is very logical, and tbh, you can't really alter it much without doing something absurd. This cycle, pretty sure the commission just moved 2 precincts.

IN-07. It's already existed for a while, and it's basically the perfect size for blue parts of Indianapolis, and I don't think practically Rs would ever really be able to crack it and go 9-0 (or 8-0 if IN eventually loses a seat). It's just a very natural district but also an effective Dem vote sink.

ME-01/02, Maine doesn't seem at risk of losing or gaining a seat anytime soon, the coastal/northern config is very natural, and I doubt either side will make it to 2/3rds in the state leg to take control of redistricting.

MI-01, the Upper Penninsula district sort of always has to exist just by way of geography. It'll prolly have to take in a bit more rurals in mainland MI every cycle, plus MI has the commission who probably wouldn't do much to alter it.

MO-01. Rs can't crack it even if they wanted to, and probably won't be able to for a while. This is another case where it's a very effective and natural vote sink, and it's also sort of limited by geography.

NJ-04, sure the commission can always do something funky, but an Ocean County based seat is becoming increasingly more logical.

NJ-12, probably just due to the increasing Asian population, it being a pretty effective Dem pack, but also Dems not wanting to change it much. It may lose Plainfield tail but I doubt it'll ever be split down the middle for a while.

OH-11, again a natural district that functions as a pretty effective dem pack regardless of if Rs or a commission has the pen in future cycles. Also, given it's close to a corner, it'd be hard to crack unless Dems fall a *lot* more in Cleveland. OH-03 could be split in half in a Commission gets the pen, but OH-11 very clearly is based around Cleveland. Will prolly have to expand due the underpopulation, but there are still a lot of Cuyahoga suburbs to take in.

OR-02. It may take in bend, but there will prolly always be an eastern OR seat. It's geographically logical and also an effective R sink.

TN-09, again a similar situation to a lot of these "natural" D sinks in cities that are geographically cornered. It'll probably continue to be underpopulated, but it'll be a while before it can be cracked.

TX-16, again pretty self-explanatory.

TX-30. Might be cleaned up a bit, but very logical district that takes in basically all the notable black communities in Dallas County. It's also growing roughly in line with the nation and has been for a while.

VA-09. An effective R sink if Ds ever get back control, and a district that sort of has to exist just by way of geography. Probably will expand due to underpopulation.

I disagree on NJ-04. The 2010s version was a borderline-competitive seat but it's now a GOP sink drawn to shore up Andy Kim next door. The 2010s NJ-04 is primarily considered a Monmouth seat rather than an Ocean one. The 2020s version however is much more Ocean-dominated.

Honestly if Dems had full control of redistricting in NJ they'd unpack NJ-12 to help secure NJ-07. And NJ-01 would possibly be unpacked to help with NJ-02.

The only NJ seats I see as staying safe are 8 and 10, the Hispanic and Black VRA seats.

The reason I think NJ-04 won't change much is because the old NJ-04 crossed the state into Trenton. Once something like that has been undone, it's hard to return to that because the old NJ-04 rlly didn't make much sense. Coastal southern Jersey and inland Southern Jersey are pretty disconnected, sorta like many parts of Florida; extreme example but you'd never draw a district from Titusville into downtown Orlando or a district from St. Lucie to Polk County, even if it's theoretically possible.

I think NJ-08 and NJ-10 will eventually become more compact due to the growth of Newark, Jersey City, and the surrounding communities being surprisingly strong. I do guess the black population kind of grounds NJ-10 around Newark though; it'll shed some of it's tendrils. I could def see a scenario where NJ-08 sheds Elizabeth and the Newark portions to become basically parallel to Manhattan.

[Sol]

Andy Kim shouldn't have a competitive seat, It should be Frank Pallone with a competitive seat.

^This. Kim is the obvious rep for a Burlington based seat, and a reasonable Burlington based seat is generally safe D. Meanwhile, Monmouth is pretty Republican and a seat based in it and southern Middlesex is pretty logical and an R-leaning swing seat.

[Mr.Phips]

Andy Kim shouldn't have a competitive seat, It should be Frank Pallone with a competitive seat.

Yeah, NJ-03 really only had so much of Ocean for all of those years as an incumbent protection deal to help Jim Saxton and Republicans hold the district.  No other reason for that district to be shaped like a bow tie for so long. 

[Skill and Chance]

Stagnant areas in commission states, basically.  Bonus points if there is some longstanding cultural reason for the seat to exist.