PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

The "popular outgoing Governor" is not very popular. That would be one problem. The other would be that there are countless examples of Democrats drowning Republicans in fundraising and losing anyway, in the last few election cycles.

Not usually in swing states though. Usually it's a blue or red state where they have almost no chance. Again, there's a reason why the GOP has not committed any $ yet to the GOV race

Eh even then, fundraising on a statewide level for a larger state is pretty meaningless.

I agree the GOP candidates have problems but if Dems win it won't be because of fundraising.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

I honestly think the bigger threat to Dems will be turnout crashing in the bluest cores of the state. If everyone who showed up in 2020 revoted for Gov, then I think Shapiro would be a pretty clear favorite to win, however, turnout dynamics will def favour Rs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

I honestly think the bigger threat to Dems will be turnout crashing in the bluest cores of the state. If everyone who showed up in 2020 revoted for Gov, then I think Shapiro would be a pretty clear favorite to win, however, turnout dynamics will def favour Rs.

This is why I think Mastriano is favored many people in blue areas can't be bothered to vote every year.

Not sure how this works since college+ whites have historically been the ones to come out, even in off year elections, and those voters are more than ever in vote-rich areas like Allegheny and SEPA.

Uh the Philly black vote maybe?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mastriano is basically running his campaign using the same insane sh*tposting memes that your crazy aunt posts to Facebook

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538862373183836160

I'd vote for Shapiro if I lived in PA, but Cuomo and Murphy literally did do that.

If you don't mind me asking, how would you vote in the Senate race?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mastriano is basically running his campaign using the same insane sh*tposting memes that your crazy aunt posts to Facebook

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538862373183836160

I'd vote for Shapiro if I lived in PA, but Cuomo and Murphy literally did do that.

If you don't mind me asking, how would you vote in the Senate race?

Probably Oz. Don't love him, but at least he's not insane like Mastriano.

I see. So your general 2022 philosophy is to vote R in the GE except for the ones who are too Trumpy/Crazy?

I do wonder how many folks with simillar 2022 mindsets there are out there. As someone pointed out in another thread, at least among the politically engaged, there does seem to be somewhat of this sneitment among moderates or R leaning voters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mastriano is basically running his campaign using the same insane sh*tposting memes that your crazy aunt posts to Facebook

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538862373183836160

I'd vote for Shapiro if I lived in PA, but Cuomo and Murphy literally did do that.

If you don't mind me asking, how would you vote in the Senate race?

Probably Oz. Don't love him, but at least he's not insane like Mastriano.

I see. So your general 2022 philosophy is to vote R in the GE except for the ones who are too Trumpy/Crazy?

I do wonder how many folks with simillar 2022 mindsets there are out there. As someone pointed out in another thread, at least among the politically engaged, there does seem to be somewhat of this sneitment among moderates or R leaning voters.

Its also easier to be more partisan in Senate Races than Gubernatorial races

Def true; especially governors races that aren't seen as competative and hence not as nationalized, explaing wonky results such as CA-2018

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tbf, this was a big part of Biden's strategy in 2020 and it only won him PA by 1.16% in 2020.

This doesn't really hurt Shapiro, but doesn't change the game much either. Glad to see though these people have morals beyond just not-Trump but also not his allies.

Anyways so much for red Chester County

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting that all PA's Republican delegation except Fritzpatrick have endorsed Mastriano. Obviously, none of them are in immediate danger in the GE but still interesting and I wonder if Fritzpatrick will just sit an endorsement out. I expect the whole Dem delegation to endorse Shapiro if they haven't already, and probably enthusiastically, especially since I expect Shapiro to win all their districts except possibly PA-07 and PA-08 (though if either Cartwright and especially Wild want to hold, they'll need a strong top of the ticket performance).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looks like Shapiro was at the Puerto Rican parade and did other events while Doug Mastriano was on a call with Andrew Torba

I appreciate Shapiro taking these communities seriously though, so we can try and avoid the inevitable "Democrats aren't doing anything for the Latino vote!" articles again come Sept-Oct. Though Latinos have not shifted rightwards in PA in recent elections as they have in other places.

PA Latinos certainly did. Just look at how Northern Philly and downtown Reading shifted. Infact these Hispanics swifts were quite intense. It just has less of an impact due to the overall population being pretty small in PA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The PA election is certainly not over, especially when turnout dynamics could lead to a plurality or even a majority Trump electorate on ED come 2022. I think it's pretty safe to assume Mastraino will do worse than a less controversial R, but that in itself doesn't mean a whole lot in terms of the actual outcome.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is now the 2nd ad that CLF has put out that does not mention Mastriano. Their first was anti-Shapiro/anti-Biden and now this one is for DelRosso.

Even the CLF knows Mastriano is radioactive.

https://twitter.com/CERVASJ/status/1559612048983613441

Weird sidenote but post-NY CD redraw, Cervas has def been more vocal about his views on twitter and it's very clear he's pretty liberal/Dem-supporting in his personal politics.

While I think he did a good job redrawing the maps and both are in the range of fair, he prolly drew one of the better maps that Dems could've hoped for from a special master, especially at the CD level

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

IIRC, he announced his retirement in October 2020.

oof

It'd honestly be intersting to see where this race would stand if Toomey stayed. Toomey was pretty good about staying on the download and coming across as relatively moderate without taking votes that piss off a significant chunk of his base. Just look at his overperformance of Clinton in many stereotypically high-education well do to suburbs around Philly. This arguably was the difference for him in 2016 as he had a pretty consistent underperformance of Trump in most rural areas (due to downballot lag, McGinty really didn't have any specific appeal).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I understand what you're saying but this would only work in theory in urban areas. Rural counties don't have that many school districts, this would cripple them. Where i live our area is struggling for teachers and now you risk cutting more jobs.

I'm not making the argument that this is good policy. This is a reason that charters are less popular with whites (who skew rural, particularly in Pennsylvania), but that doesn't stop them from being very popular generally. My only point is that 2014 lines of attack will not work in 2022.

Why not do what NYC does where students can choose where they go to high school anywhere in the city? In my school, you have kids from all 5 boroughs of all races and economic statuses sharing a common experience. Again, that practically won't work in rural areas but making charter schools mainstream just seems to be opening a huge can of worms.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Mastriano clearly does not know how to use social media (or technology) very well, he’s not even in frame for this one and you only see half of him for the entire video.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just went on a college tour of Swathmore which is in a wealthy part of Delaware County. Lots of Shapiro signs, only 1 Mastriano signs. There were also a lot of signs for Scanlon which was interesting; I always though of her as somewhat of a backbencher and she isn't facing a comeptative re-election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder what the consequences will be for the PA legislature, considering they have been redrawn to be fairer and more competitive this cycle. If turnout is lagging because of Oz/Mastriano then Democrats could actually have a shot at taking control, which would be the first time Democrats control the House since the election of 2008 or the Senate since 1978!

I def think the PA Legislature has been underdiscussed.

The State Senate is slightly less competitive because several of the main Democratic pickups are not up. However, there def is still a narrow path for Dems as they'd have to win all the Biden seats plus 2 seats that were Trump + 0. Unlike Michigan though, we aren't seeing the same momentum or fundraising for these Dem State Senate candidates despite their districts being comparable in size.

For the State House, all the seats are up and Dems path in theory would be sweeping all the Biden seats, however, practically, the seats are all relativley small and we see several examples of pretty extreme ticket splitting due to local politics. For instance, Republican incumbent Todd Stephen seems favored to hold his Biden + 25 suburban Philly seat after an insane overperformance in 2020. On the flipside Frank Burns seems favored to hold his Trump + 29 seat based around Ebensburg. What's improtant though is that The Philly suburbs alone aren't going to be enough to give Dems the statehouse; they'll have to win competative races in places like Scranton, College Station, and Erie.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So with the extreme divergence in both major statewide Pennsylvania races, with this one looking increasingly like a lock for Shapiro and Oz making a comeback in the Senate race, what can Shapiro do to help Fetterman? He might as well focus his efforts there as well as in trying to get a Democratic legislature now that Mastriano is close to dead in the water. I get not wanting to be complacent but this is getting into "stop! He's already dead!" territory and the resources that may go into beating him further into the ground could be utilized better elsewhere.

The State Senate is quite a tough carry just because of the seats that are up. A strong performance could set them up well in 2024 though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

For the state house, CNalysis has Republicans favored in 103 seats and Democrats favored in 98, with two tossups (one in Pittsburgh's North Hills and one in DelCo) - the former is open and the latter is held by an incumbent Republican.

I think the state house became considerably more favorable to Democrats in redistricting. For instance, there are now three safe D seats around Harrisburg and two around Lancaster, while the previous maps only had one each. 

Cervas drew the State House map and seemed to make small D friendly decisions to overcome Dems generally poor geography, and I also think population shifts generally favored Ds.

It's insane how large Rs majority was pre-2018

[ProgressiveModerate]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

For the state house, CNalysis has Republicans favored in 103 seats and Democrats favored in 98, with two tossups (one in Pittsburgh's North Hills and one in DelCo) - the former is open and the latter is held by an incumbent Republican.

I think the state house became considerably more favorable to Democrats in redistricting. For instance, there are now three safe D seats around Harrisburg and two around Lancaster, while the previous maps only had one each. 

Cervas drew the State House map and seemed to make small D friendly decisions to overcome Dems generally poor geography, and I also think population shifts generally favored Ds.

It's insane how large Rs majority was pre-2018

That was largely due extreme gerrymandering. I mean, Republicans lost the popular vote by ten in 2018 and still maintained a majority. This is absolutely insane.

Yeah, and Dems had absolutely terrible geography in PA around 2014-2016 era since most of the rural seats had become long gone yet they were still losing in the suburbs. In 2018 Dems were able to flip a ton of suburban seats, particularly around Philly, and held almost  all of them in 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

Given polarization, I'm thinking Shapiro by about 4 seems most likely. It's unfortunate but remember Biden only won PA by a point against Trump in 2020, who isn't Mastriano levels of crazy but getting close.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In my opinion, Shapiro's floor is a victory margin of 4 points, and his ceiling is anywhere between 9 and 12.

Given polarization, I'm thinking Shapiro by about 4 seems most likely. It's unfortunate but remember Biden only won PA by a point against Trump in 2020, who isn't Mastriano levels of crazy but getting close.

Trump had an actual campaign infrastructure though. Also Shapiro outran Biden by four points. A high single digit margin is definitely plausible. I'm cautious about it ending up in the low teens, but this is not entirely equivalent to a presidential election.

The Senate election will likely track closer to 2020.

I do wonder if Mastriano is helping Oz in a backhanded sense that Mastriano being so crazy makes Oz look more normal and sane. I also feel like there's a bit of a simillar dynamic in Georgia; prior to 2020 Kemp was seem as pretty far right for Georgia but after he refused to give in to the big lie he's been hailed as some moderate hero and often compared to Walker, who is well... idk.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

Lancaster County is pretty insane for the GOP and you can see a very very clear political divide line despite both counties being relatively white and of simillar density. I think the issue for Dems in Lancaster County is unlike Chester County, Philly really has very little influence over it. Lancaster itself has been growing though and overtime will probably cut into the GOP margin, but I honestly don't think it'll flip for quite a while and by then we may be looking at completely different coalitons.

[ProgressiveModerate]

RCP just moved the race to Leans D (lol) so it’s very safe to say things here are settled.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/elections-map.html

Lean D PA with tossup NY

[ProgressiveModerate]

I know some people think there will be a polling error here due to some hidden vote, like Trump. But i'm very skeptical for a few reasons.

1. Mastriano has run a lousy campaign with zero outreach to swing voters. Without talking to any media and having no ads for nearly the entire campaign, plus no debate, he can't get his message to anyone. Unless you followed him on social media, you have no clue when his events are.

2. I live in the heart of Trump country, and while Mastriano signs are dominant...there is nowhere near the intensity and coverage compared to Trump. These locations would never have hidden voters. There are many houses that had Trump signs, they have nothing. That leaves me to believe that Mastriano will underperform Trump here by a few points, at least.

I believe the margin will be 9-11 points when all is said and done. Just giving my two cents.

I do think there will be some underestimation, but it's pretty hard to see a path for Dougie at this point. Shapiro +5-ish when all is said and done imo.

I can see that being the worst-case scenario for him. I don't believe the 13-14 point polls.

Something doesn't smell right about PA polling right now as I've said in another thread for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, the divide between Senate and Gov seems way too large. An 11% difference in margin seems  way too large, even if Mastriano is terrible, just given Pennsylvania's relative polarization and nationalization in the media.

Secondly, Fetterman outright falling from 51.2% to 46.6% doesn't seem right. Yes, i would expect Oz to consolidate the R base and hence increse his own %, but that sort of drop on Fetterman's part takes some HUGE scandal which there has not been. The stroke def had an impact but would not justify that large of a change.

Also, can we just consider 11% is about what Casey won by in a super D leaning year against a nobody? 2022 is just likely to be less favorable overall so idk if an 11% win would be possible for Shapiro with the electorate that shows up.